We’re now three weeks into the season and, depending on your league, trades will become more frequent. Justin Dunbar and I released sell high and buy low advice late last week for Week 3. If you happened to take advantage of it, then you likely made some successful deals. If you missed out, it’s time to consider moves to make ahead of Week 4.
Neither of our Week 3 sell-high running backs finished in the top-25, and neither of the wide receivers were in the top-20, this past weekend. In even better news, Dunbar’s buy-low running back, James Robinson, cashed in Week 3 as the PPR RB3. Both of our buy low tight ends, George Kittle and Mark Andrews, ended up as TE5 and TE6 respectively.
Each week, Justin Dunbar and I will nominate trade candidates at running back, wide receiver, and tight end to sell high and buy low on. Let this be a guide on which players to consider acquiring or moving any given week.
For any specific scenarios or further elaboration on the ideas surrounding the inclusion of these players in your trades, find Justin and me on Twitter at @TalkMVP and @LincoCammytan!
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Players to Consider in Sell High or Buy Low Trades Ahead of Week 4
SELL HIGH
Chris Carson; Running Back, Seattle Seahawks
Dunbar: With 15.1 and 16.2 PPR points over the past two weeks respectively, Chris Carson has been a major contributor for fantasy football teams. However, now is the time to sell high.
During this hot stretch, Carson has seen just 25 carries, and, most concerning, is not being used in the receiving game. He ran just nine routes on Sunday and hasn’t been a dual-threat back at all this season. His three touchdowns over the past two games have been a saving grace for him, but you should sell high before it’s too late.
Saquon Barkley; Running Back, New York Giants
McTamany: Saquon Barkley is likely a sell-high candidate if you drafted him and don’t want to spend the rest of the season worrying as much as you did the first two weeks. Regardless, it was nice to see Saquon total 94 all-purpose yards on Sunday. Even better, Saquon scored his first touchdown since December of 2019.
Saquon’s snaps continue to increase week after week, reaching a season-high 86% in Week 3. The big news is that he controlled 95.6% of the backfield touches and 100% of backfield targets. This is the usage of a first-round fantasy football PPR running back you want to see.
Following Week 3, the window to buy low on Saquon has officially slammed shut. This is probably the week to sell high, if at all. Saquon is set to face four straight stingy run defenses: the New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams, and Carolina Panthers. His usage and ability should be matchup proof, but if you have deep down buyer’s remorse, sell now and sell high.
Ja’Maar Chase; Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals
Dunbar: After a tumultuous preseason in which he struggled with drops, Ja’Marr Chase saw his average draft position drop significantly. So far, though, he’s pushed past those concerns, averaging 18.9 PPR points over the first three weeks. The problem? He’s seen just nine targets over the past two games.
Unless he continues to score one or more touchdowns per game and hit on chunk plays consistently, it’s likely that Chase’s stock eventually goes down in a very run-heavy offense. You bought him at a low point when you drafted him, and now is the time to cash in. Sell high on the rookie to those who currently regret not drafting him.
Odell Beckham Jr.; Wide Receiver, Cleveland Browns
McTamany: Odell took the field for his 2021 season debut following a season-ending ACL tear in 2020. As the Browns’ leading receiver, OBJ hauled in five receptions for 77 yards on nine targets. He also added one end-around rush for 10 yards.
While it’s great to see Odell back on the field, it’s time to field trade offers from wide receiver needy teams for him. The Browns are a run-first team. After three weeks, they lead the league with 102 total rushing attempts. With a stout offensive line, and running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, their game plan won’t change.
Furthermore, the Browns’ success on offense Sunday has a direct correlation to their defensive play. The Chicago Bears only ran 42 total plays to the Browns’ 78. On top of that, the Bears only accumulated 47 yards of offense on 11 drives compared to the Browns’ 418 on 11 drives. With the Bears spending most of their time on defense, it’s no wonder OBJ and the team had such success.
Odell is a nice trade piece this week to move if you happen to be in need of a running back, or to fill whatever hole you may have in your lineup, this early in the season. Sell high before Jarvis Landry returns from Injured Reserve.
Mike Gesicki; Tight End, Miami Dolphins
Dunbar: After scoring zero PPR points in the first week of the season, chances are that you dropped Mike Gesicki only for him to vault back up with 18.6 PPR points against the Raiders in Week 3. Yet, I’m not expecting Gesicki to continue to have 12 targets on a weekly basis. He’s been one of Jacoby Brissett’s top targets.
Tua Tagovailoa threw Gesicki the ball just three times in Week 1, and is willing to throw the ball down the field more often than Brissett. That means more targets for Will Fuller V and DeVante Parker, and I wouldn’t bank on Miami attempting 49 passes every game.
While there is a window to shop Gesicki to a tight end-needy team, take advantage of his spike week and sell high, especially before a tough matchup against the Colts in Week 4.
George Kittle; Tight End, San Francisco 49ers
McTamany: Finally, Kittle finishes as the PPR TE5 in Week 3. This is what managers who invested high draft capital in Kittle have been waiting for. Selling high on Kittle is, and has never been, about his talent. It’s more so about the lackluster performances that quarterback, Jimmy Garoppollo, is putting together week after week.
So far, the San Francisco 49ers are below average in pass attempts per game. Garoppolo is averaging under 250 passing yards through three weeks. Kittle saw nine targets on Sunday Night Football against the Green Bay Packers but is seeing an overall lesser target share than the 49ers’ running back position.
The good news about Kittle is that he is the only tight end on the roster getting any looks from Jimmy G. However, I’m not sure there’s ever going to be weekly consistency from Kittle, with Garoppolo under center, to live up to where you drafted him.
Truth be told, you’re probably not selling high, or selling at all if you have one of the top drafted tight ends. Though, if you neglected wide receiver or running back in favor of Kittle during draft season, it’s worth floating him out there to your league. Coming off of his best game yet, it can’t hurt to see if someone is willing to package players for his name recognition security at tight end.
BUY LOW
David Montgomery; Running Back, Chicago Bears
Dunbar: After opening the 2021 fantasy football season with 18.8-points against a tough Rams defense, it’s been a tough few weeks for David Montgomery. Following an encouraging opening weekend, he’s scored just 10.9 and 7.5 points in the past two weeks, respectively. Yet, don’t let a historically poor showing by the Bears cloud your evaluation of him. Should Justin Fields get more time under center, the offense should get more comfortable. With that, I expect a run-heavy offense designed around Fields and Montgomery as the focus.
While Fields could hurt Montgomery’s touchdown upside, he’ll help improve his efficiency. That should help mitigate those concerns. What’s most encouraging, though, is the receiving work that Montgomery is seeing. Montgomery has taken over as the lead receiving back for Chicago, earning a 33% target share last week with Fields.
With the Lions up next, you’ll want to buy low on Montgomery before it’s too late. This is a talented player who is rating out well in terms of utilization.
Joe Mixon; Running Back, Cincinnati Bengals
McTamany: Joe Mixon is doing just fine this season. He’s averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game and is a solid RB2. That is what he was likely drafted to be.
If by chance whoever drafted Mixon is feeling let down, now is the time to buy low. Mixon was on the field for an average of 78.9% of the Bengals’ snaps from Weeks 1 to 3. When he is on the field, he is the workhorse having carried the ball 29, 20, and 18 times each of the games. He’s only seen seven targets, but quarterback, Joe Burrow, is throwing far less in 2021 than he did before tearing his ACL in 2020. The receiving work will come.
The key here is that Mixon’s next three opponents are especially fantasy-friendly to running backs. Back-to-back home games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Green Bay Packers, and an away matchup versus the Detroit Lions, should yield top-10, if not better, performances for Mixon. Buy low while you still can.
Corey Davis; Wide Receiver, New York Jets
Dunbar: Remember when Corey Davis was a darling of the fantasy community after totaling 26.7 PPR points in Week 1? Since then, he’s accumulated just 49 combined receiving yards and hasn’t been worthy of start consideration in your lineup.
Yet, there is still reason to be optimistic. He’s still leading the Jets’ receiving corps with a 22.45% target share, including 10 on Sunday, with an 11.9 average depth of target. He’s in position to make big plays. It’s hard to bank on the Jets right now, but the Titans and Falcons are much easier opponents than they’ve been facing. Davis looks like the main player to benefit. I would buy low on the obvious top target in an offense that will continue to pass the ball while trailing most games.
Robert Woods, Wide Receiver, Los Angeles Rams
McTamany: What Rams wide receiver, Cooper Kupp, has done through three weeks is nothing short of incredible. He’s the WR1 in PPR formats averaging 30.3 points per game. He’s commanding a 35% target share on the Rams offense that’s averaging 31.7 points per week, third amongst all teams. He has yet to see less than 10 targets in a game.
Meanwhile, Robert Woods has finished as WR46, WR44, and WR61 through the first three weeks. Not to take away from Kupp’s remarkable early stretch, but better days are likely ahead for Woods. He’s averaging just over six targets per game and should see more as teams adjust to Kupp Mania. Woods still mixes in an end-around run or two each game, as well.
Woods has finished as WR11, WR14, and WR14 from 2018 to 2020. While Matthew Stafford may have developed a stronger rapport with Kupp, Woods is still a crucial piece of this offense. He was probably drafted as a WR3 so acquiring him in a buy low scenario may not be as difficult as other players currently in a slump.
Kyle Pitts; Tight End, Atlanta Falcons
Dunbar: It hasn’t been the start of the season that Kyle Pitts fantasy managers were hoping for. The rookie tight end is averaging just 8.3 PPR points over the first three weeks of the season. Yet, wasn’t this a price you were willing to pay by drafting him?
Rookie tight ends historically take some time to adjust to the NFL. Head coach Arthur Smith is still figuring out how to utilize him properly. For what it’s worth, Pitts’ average depth of target has risen in three straight weeks. If that continues, a blow-up game could be coming soon. Don’t assume the Falcons drafted him with the fourth overall pick NOT for him to be a major part of the offense at some point. Honestly, that point could come in any week.
McTamany: I can’t help but agree that Kyle Pitts is an obvious buy-low candidate. The tricky part is convincing the manager with Pitts that they’ll be able to move forward with some other tight end off of the waiver wire. Pitts only has two more games before a Week 6 Bye. If whoever drafted him is in need of a win, and fast, then shoot your shot and inquire about Pitts sooner than later.
Coming Wednesday our Week 4 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | PPR | Flex
More fantasy football fun for Week 4: Waiver Wire | FAAB Guide | Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Targets | Start & Sit | Loves & Hates | Stock Watch | Sleepers & Streamers | QB Streamers | D/ST Streamers |
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