There are a ton of fantasy-relevant players in the AFC West. It all starts with the Kansas City Chiefs with the best quarterback and tight end in the league in Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. There are at least 3-4 fantasy relevant players on each team, but about half of them come with some question marks. Let’s take a look at the skill position players in the AFC West.
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AFC West Fantasy Previews
Kansas City Chiefs
Last season the Kansas City Chiefs went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl against the San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs ranked second with 29.9 points per game behind the Baltimore Ravens and ranked fourth with 384.3 total yards per game. In terms of passing yards, they ranked fourth with 282.8 passing yards per game. The Chiefs ranked 22nd in rushing yards with 101.5 rushing yards per game. We know they have the best quarterback in the league, Patrick Mahomes.
In 14 games last year, Mahomes threw for 4,031 yards, 26 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He chipped in the rushing game with 218 rushing yards and two touchdowns. That season-long line doesn’t scream best quarterback, but he missed a couple of games due to injury. It’s also hard to compare and replicate his 2018 MVP numbers of over 5,000 passing yards and 50 touchdowns. Regardless, there’s no doubting the talent as he’s the ranked first or second in virtually every set of quarterback rankings you will see.
If he played a full season, he was on pace for over 4,600 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. A reasonable 2020 outlook for Mahomes would be 4,800 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns, and 200 rushing yards. Mahomes goes as the second quarterback with an NFFC ADP of 14. In superflex leagues, he’s worth that price. However, I’d rather wait to get a quarterback in a 1-QB league.
Damien Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are the Chiefs’ top two running backs. Let’s first talk about the back with actual professional football experience in Williams.
Williams led the Chiefs with 111 carries, 498 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns. He’s also used in the passing game with 37 targets, 30 receptions, 213 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. Those full-season stats might not look impressive, but let’s look at four out of the last five weeks for Williams.
|Total Touches/Yards||Fantasy Points||Weekly Rank|
|Week 9||14 touches, 128 yards||20.8 points||8th|
|Week 10||24 touches, 109 yards||13.9 points||15th|
|Week 11||5 touches, 13 yards||2.3 points||63rd|
|Week 16||19 touches, 92 yards||18.2 points||12th|
|Week 17||16 touches, 154 yards||31.4 points||3rd|
Williams’ ranked top 15 or better in fantasy points during the four out of five weeks, and keep in mind he missed weeks 12-15 due to injuries. In week 11, Williams suffered a rib injury during the game which explains the low production. And even into the Chiefs playoff run, we continued to see the touches and production for Williams.
Williams’ snap and opportunity share hovered slightly above 50%, and he’ll probably share touches with Edwards-Helaire. Williams ranked as the 16th most efficient running back according to production premium on Player Profiler. In fantasy points per game, Williams’ ranked 22nd with 12.8 points per game. It’s hard to look at his season-long metrics because he didn’t receive the majority of the touches and snaps until week 9 when he took off. This is a contract year for Williams, and sometimes we see players have awesome years in the last year of their contract.
There’s a ton of buzz around first-round rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of LSU. He’s listed at 5’7” and 207 pounds with a burst score in the 89th percentile. At LSU last year, he ended with 215 carries, 1,414 rushing yards, 55 receptions, 453 receiving yards, and 17 total touchdowns. Expect Edwards-Helaire to share touches with Damien Williams, and possibly take the majority of touches by the end of the season. We’ve seen him do it all on the high octane LSU offense, and he happened to land with another top offense in the Chiefs.
Chiefs’ 2020 Running Back Outlook
Edwards-Helaire’s currently being drafted as a top-20 running back going at pick 36 in NFFC. Meanwhile, Damien Williams goes almost 30 picks later with a 64 NFFC ADP as the 30th running back drafted. Williams is the better draft value since they’re both likely to share touches. One of these running backs will finish in the top-24 in PPR scoring, but the question is which one.
Wide Receiver and Tight End
Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman are the top three receivers on the Chiefs’ depth chart. Hill and Watkins are the most relevant with Hardman being a deep league flier. Hill missed some time due to injury, so his full-season line wasn’t great.
In 12 games last year, Hill received 89 targets, 58 receptions, 860 receiving yards, and seven receiving touchdowns. Hill received a 21% target share, 12.9 aDOT, and usually one of the top receivers in air yards. In 2018, he had 1,149 air yards and in 2019 his 1,898 air yards ranked sixth amongst receivers. In terms of opportunity, Hill’s target share ranked 26th and his hog-rate ranked eighth at receiver. Although his target share isn’t high, we know he’s efficient and explosive. The hog rate indicates that Hill’s the focal point of the offense when on the field. His teammate, Travis Kelce, also receives a high hog rate.
Not surprisingly, Hill’s also one of the best separators in the league ranking sixth in target separation. One concern would be Hill’s volatility yet he’s got league-winning potential. In three weeks last year, Hill finished in the top five in fantasy points at receiver, and finished one other week in the top ten. He also had four weeks ranked as the 35th wide receiver or worse in fantasy points. However in those four “down” weeks, he still averaged five receptions for 62.5 receiving yards, which provides a solid floor.
Watkins had his most receiving yards last year since 2015 when he reached the 1,000-yard mark for the only time in his career. In 2019, Watkins received 90 targets, 52 receptions, 673 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. All three touchdowns were in week 1 when he blew up for nine catches, 198 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. Keep in mind during week 1, Tyreek Hill left the game due to a shoulder injury. His 90 targets were good for a 19% target share that ranked 40th at the receiver. Watkins is still in his prime and will be 27 years old on June 14th. We know the talent is there, but his opportunity, productivity, and efficiency metrics don’t jump off the page.
Mecole Hardman ran a 4.33, 40-yard dash ranked in 99th percentile. The volume isn’t there for Hardman since he’s likely the fifth or sixth option in the Chiefs offense. Last year he caught 26 passes for 538 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns. That’s a 23.1% touchdown rate, which is not sustainable with the volume and opportunities he receives. Hardman may be worth a flier with a 123 NFFC ADP if it’s a deep league, but he’s likely to have a better opportunity to produce in 2021.
Travis Kelce was the Chiefs leading receiver last year with 97 receptions, 1,229 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. Kelce ranked first in fantasy points per game, targets, receptions, and receiving yards. His 24.4% target share, 14 deep targets, and 94.1% snap share ranked second amongst tight ends. Kelce’s top ten in yards per target, yards per reception, yards after the catch, and hog rate. He’s the best tight end in the league paired with the best quarterback and it’s hard to argue otherwise.
2020 Wide Receiver and Tight End Outlook
Hill and Kelce are two of the best wide receivers and tight ends, but their draft prices will be high. Hill’s NFFC ADP of 17 makes him the fourth receiver drafted in between DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones. Hopkins and Jones have a higher target share, but Hill’s explosive and paired with the best quarterback. Hill ranked 11th in fantasy points per game last year, so he’s being drafted at his ceiling. Kelce’s NFFC ADP of 20 makes him the first tight end drafted, and he’s definitely worth the cost if you like taking a tight end early.
Check out Ron Rigney’s Top-5 Quarterbacks under 25.
Las Vegas Raiders
This will be the first year the Raiders play outside of Oakland. The main fantasy assets are Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, and rookie Henry Ruggs. Derek Carr and Tyrell Williams are other notable skill players with Hunter Renfrow being relevant in deeper leagues. Surprisingly the Raiders ranked 12th in total yards, 13th in rushing yards, and eighth in passing yards per game yet they ranked 24th with 19.6 points per game. The 2019 offensive numbers make them an intriguing team coming into 2020.
Derek Carr threw for 4,054 yards, 21 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He took a slight step forward in passing completion at 70.4%, but other than that produced similar stats to 2018. Carr ranked 21st with 15.3 fantasy points per game, and probably not worth drafting unless it’s a superflex league. The Raiders have one of the best offensive lines and Carr ranked fifth in clean pocket percentage. Carr’s accuracy and pass catchers around him helped with his efficiency. His true completion percentage and play-action completion percentage ranked in the top three amongst quarterbacks, so maybe Carr continues to be efficient if they continue to run the ball successfully. Carr’s supporting cast in Williams and Waller helped him quite a bit. Williams ranked as the fifth most efficient receiver and Waller ranked as the third most efficient tight end according to production premium.
As a rookie, Josh Jacobs finished the year with 242 carries, 1,150 rushing yards, and seven touchdowns. He wasn’t that involved in the passing game with 20 catches for 166 receiving yards. Jacobs ranked 15th in opportunity share and 11th in red zone touches. In fantasy points per game, he ranked 15th with 14.7 points per game. Jacobs also ranked top ten in evaded tackles and juke rate, and ninth in yards created. All those metrics back up his solid rookie campaign.
He checks a lot of the boxes we want to see in running backs: high opportunity share, red zone touches, and breaks tackles. However, one knock would be the lack of involvement in the passing game, so he could receive more or less work depending on game script. When looking at his game script metrics, it shows that the Raiders were often playing from behind. Jacobs NFFC ADP of 16 makes him the 13th running back off the board right in between Austin Ekeler and Leonard Fournette. That’s a fair price for Jacobs, but the main difference is that Jacobs isn’t as involved in the receiving game as Ekeler and Fournette.
We’ll highlight Henry Ruggs and Tyrell Williams since they’re the most fantasy relevant.
Let’s first look at rookie Henry Ruggs. His prospect profile shows that Ruggs is fast and explosive with his 40-yard dash, speed, and burst score all in the 90th percentile and above. Ruggs’ college dominator rating ranked in the 17th percentile and target share ranked in the 13th percentile, which wasn’t great. At Alabama last season, Ruggs caught 40 catches for 746 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, and those receiving yards were a career high. Ruggs is currently going at pick 122 as the 46th receiver drafted, which is sandwiched in between Emmanuel Sanders and Mecole Hardman. He’s projected to be the top receiver on the Raiders and could be worth the flier with his speed.
Last year, Tyrell Williams received 64 targets, 42 receptions, 651 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. Williams’ 16.5% target share ranked 63rd, 91.3% snap share ranked 20th, and a 9.2% hog rate ranked 102nd. Williams’ 14.3% touchdown rate was definitely unsustainable since he went five straight games with a touchdown in weeks 1-4 and week 8 while missing time due to injuries in weeks 5-7. He’s likely due for efficiency regression with the fifth ranked production premium and 15.5 yards per reception that ranked 16th at receiver. It’s notable to see that Willams had the second best contested catch rate last season. Although he’s due for touchdown and efficiency regression, he’s a steal with a 212 ADP and the 71st receiver drafted. Obviously more of a deep league or best ball target, but definitely a draft value.
Tight End – Darren Waller
Do you know how many receiving yards Darren Waller had prior to 2019? Waller had 178 receiving yards in three previous seasons. Last season Waller received 117 targets, 90 receptions, 1,145 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. That 23.8% target share ranked fourth and total targets ranked third at tight end. He was one of the most productive tight ends last season and likely picked up off waivers last year. Waller’s production premium ranked third, contested catch rate ranked first, and yards per reception ranked 12th at tight end. He was pretty efficient last year, but not too worrisome with the target volume and opportunities he received. The only concern would be the lack of track record, but tight ends tend to take time to develop and be fantasy relevant. Waller’s 65 ADP makes him the fifth tight end off the board in between Zach Ertz and Tyler Higbee. The tight end pool seems deeper than in past years, so I’d be fine waiting until the later rounds.
The Denver Broncos ranked as one of the worst offenses in the league. The Broncos scored 17.6 points per game which ranked 28th and had 298.6 total yards per game which ranked 28th. They rushed for 103.9 yards per game which ranked 20th, and passed for 194.7 yards per game which ranked 28th. Their 57.8% pass to 42.4% run ratio didn’t really show up in their passing volume. There’s a lot of hype around Drew Lock with the additions of Melvin Gordon and rookies Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. Add in the returning young assets of Phillip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant, and those are intriguing skill-position weapons for Lock.
Drew Lock’s coming into his second year and played in five games last season with 1,020 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. His only notable game was against Houston, where he threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. In the four other games started, he broke 200 passing yards once. The Broncos added offensive weapons to go along with the youth skill position players, so Lock could take a step up in 2020. Lock’s 128 ADP puts him as the 21st quarterback off the board in between Jimmy Garoppolo and Kirk Cousins. Sure there’s the potential for Lock, but I’d rather take Garoppolo or Cousins in this range even in superflex leagues.
Phillip Lindsey was the lead back for the Broncos last season as a 2018 undrafted free agent. Then the Broncos acquired Melvin Gordon in the offseason and Gordon immediately expects to be the lead back.
Melvin Gordon’s been an all-purpose back throughout his five-year career. From 2016-2018, Gordon amassed 1,300-1,500 total yards and didn’t include his rookie year and last year when he held out. He’s now on the Broncos and looks to be the lead back in front of Lindsey. Last season, Gordon finished with 162 carries, 612 rushing yards, and eight rushing touchdowns. He also chipped in with 42 receptions, 296 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown.
Last season Gordon’s touches and snaps were limited since he shared snaps and touches with the extremely efficient Austin Ekeler. His snap and opportunity share ranged from 54-55% and his 55 targets ranked 19th at running back. Gordon also received the 15th most red-zone touches even with the shared opportunities. He ranked 14th with 15.1 fantasy points per game and 19th in receptions at running back. Gordon’s not extremely efficient with the 40th ranked production premium yet he usually produces with the volume and opportunities in the rushing and passing game. Although Ekeler was extremely efficient and productive, Gordon ranked ninth in dominator rating with 27.6% of the team’s total yards and touchdowns. In terms of dominator rating, he’s sandwiched in between Joe Mixon and Ezekiel Elliot for reference.
It’s hard not to love Phillip Lindsey as an undrafted free agent who rushed for over 1,000 yards in his first two seasons. He’s also a homegrown talent growing up and attending college in Colorado. Last season, Lindsey ended with 224 carries, 1,011 rushing yards, and seven rushing touchdowns. He also chipped in 35 catches for 196 receiving yards. He shared snaps and opportunities with Royce Freeman last year and projects to do so again in 2020. However the main difference this year would be the addition of Melvin Gordon with the proven track record.
Lindsey ranked near the top 20 or better in red-zone touches, carries, and rushing yards, but that’s probably dropping this year. He wasn’t that efficient with his touches and ranked 48th in production premium. However, he ranked 17th amongst running backs in dominator rating with just under 25% of the team’s total yards and touchdowns. Lindsey’s 104 ADP makes him 38th running back off the boards, which is a good value even with Gordon in the picture.
Running Back 2020 Outlook
Gordon’s ADP of 29 makes him the 15th running back drafted and going in between Fournette and Gurley. There’s the concern of Lindsey taking some touches, but he’s fairly priced given the opportunities and production. Lindsey going past pick 100 which makes him a nice mid-round pick that you could pair with Gordon to lock up this backfield.
The Broncos’ main threat in the passing game would be Courtland Sutton although they did draft Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler in the 2020 NFL Draft.
In Courtland Sutton’s second year in the league, he made the Pro Bowl with 124 targets, 72 receptions, 1,112 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. He consistently received targets in each game with only one game with less than six targets, and in that one game, he ended with four catches for 72 yards and two touchdowns.
His 26.1% target share ranked eighth at receiver with 28.2% of those coming in the red zone. Sutton was top 20 in receptions, receiving yards, and yards after the catch. He ranked 16th in air yards and 27th with 13.9 fantasy points per game. Sutton ranked 49th in production premium yet ranked sixth in dominator rating, which means he accounted for 35.1% of the team’s total yards and touchdowns even with poor efficiency. He’s solid at making contested catches with a 37.5% contested catch rate that ranked 22nd, which helps young quarterbacks like Lock.
If Sutton continues to receive the high target share and Lock provides more accurate targets, then he could become a high-end WR2. The Broncos will likely still be playing from behind, so hopefully, Sutton continues to get peppered with targets and improves his efficiency. Sutton’s ADP of 47 makes him the 17th wide receiver drafted. I’d be more confident with him improving upon his 2019 numbers, but adding Jeudy and Hamler in the 2020 NFL Draft is worrisome.
Jerry Jeudy & K.J. Hamler WR
The Broncos drafted Jerry Jeudy in the first round out of Alabama. Let’s look at Jeudy’s prospect profile. Jeudy’s 25.1% college dominator rating ranked in the 35th percentile, 25.1% target share ranked in the 64th percentile, and 19.4 breakout age ranked in the 82nd percentile. At Alabama last season, Jeudy ended with 77 receptions, 1,163 receiving yards, and 10 receiving touchdowns.
Given the Broncos ranked 25th in pass plays per game, it seems unlikely for the Broncos to support two fantasy-relevant wide receivers unless Lock becomes extremely efficient. It’s hard to see Jeudy making an impact in 2020 with only 58 vacated targets. Also, consider the Broncos drafted K.J. Hamler in the second round but he’s fourth on the receiver depth chart. Jeudy’s the 37th receiver being drafted with an ADP of 99, and he’s going around guys that I’d prefer in Christian Kirk and Brandin Cooks.
Tight End – Noah Fant
Noah Fant ended 2019 with 66 targets, 40 receptions, 562 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns. In a couple of notable games, Fant received four targets in each and logged his only two 100+ receiving yards to go along with two touchdowns. In two other games, he received nine or more targets with only nine catches for 86 receiving yards. We’ve seen Fant’s explosiveness even with a small target share, but also the volatility with inconsistent quarterback play and Sutton taking most of the target share.
Fant’s 13.9% target share ranked 21st at the tight end position with 12.7% of those coming in the red zone. His total targets actually ranked 15th amongst tight ends, which tells you about the volume tight ends receive outside of the top tier. When looking at his college workout metrics, Fant’s numbers jump off the page with all of them being in the 96th percentile and above. We’ve seen the explosiveness from Fant and the numbers back it up. He ranked seventh with 300 yards after the catch and ranked second with 14.1 yards per reception amongst tight ends.
Fant’s the 14th tight end drafted with a 124 ADP sandwiched in between Hayden Hurst and T.J. Hockenson. I’d take Hockenson or Hurst in this range over Fant’s lack of volume with a quarterback I trust less in Lock.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers no longer have long-time veteran, Philip Rivers, under center as he’s now on the Colts. Veteran Tyrod Taylor and rookie Justin Herbert will battle for the quarterback spot this season. Melvin Gordon’s now on the Broncos, so this could be Austin Ekeler’s backfield after having an amazing season last year. They still have great weapons in the receiving game with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry.
The Chargers ranked 21st with 21.1 average points per game yet 10th in total offense with 367.4 total yards per game. They ranked 28th with 90.8 rushing yards per game and ranked sixth with 276.6 passing yards per game. Their 62.5% pass to 37.5% run ratio is evident in their team passing and rushing yard totals.
With Rivers gone, Justin Herbert and Tyrod Taylor look to battle for the quarterback spot. The Chargers drafted Herbert sixth overall out of the University of Oregon. Herbert finished the season with 3,471 passing yards, 32 passing touchdowns, and six interceptions. He’s got great size at 6’6” and 236 pounds with a burst score in the 91st percentile yet didn’t contribute a ton in the rushing game with 560 rushing yards in four seasons. Herbert’s 8.9 YPA ranked in the 75th percentile and he’s got a cannon for an arm. In redraft leagues, Herbert’s more of a watch list quarterback particularly in superflex leagues. Herbert’s definitely a valuable asset in dynasty leagues.
Tyrod Taylor hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2017 in Buffalo. That season Taylor threw for 2,799 yards, 14 passing touchdowns, and four interceptions along with 427 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Since there’s barely any recent statistics, it’s hard to dive into metrics other than we know he’s a dual-threat quarterback which can provide a safer floor. Taylor’s drafted as the 31st quarterback at pick 220. His teammate, Herbert, is being drafted at pick 249 as the 35th quarterback drafted. Both Chargers’ quarterbacks are more superflex targets and not really relevant in 1-QB leagues.
Austin Ekeler’s definitely an efficiency regression candidate in 2020. Last year Ekeler had 132 carries, 557 rushing yards, and three touchdowns to go along with 92 receptions, 993 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns. If we look at total touches and yards, then that resulted in 224 touches for 1,550 total yards and 11 total touchdowns. He averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game that ranked sixth. In addition, Ekeler ranked second in receptions and receiving yards amongst running backs. Rivers often targeted his running backs, and Ekeler ranked second in running back targets last season. Ekeler’s receiving skills mean that he won’t leave the field due to game script.
Ekeler ranked first in yards per touch and production premium, which indicates extreme efficiency amongst running backs last season. Although he was efficient, Ekeler’s 28% dominator rating ranked seventh, and now Melvin Gordon’s gone. One question would be, will the new Chargers quarterback target the running backs like Rivers did? When looking at 2016-2017 when Taylor was the quarterback of the Bills, he did target Lesean McCoy a decent amount. Taylor targeted McCoy 134 times in those two seasons and we’ll see what happens if Herbert’s the starter. Ekeler’s price seems to be at his ceiling with an ADP of 15 as the 12th running back drafted.
Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley
Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley are the second and third running backs on the depth chart. The Chargers drafted Kelley in the fourth round this year, but don’t anticipate him being fantasy relevant in redraft leagues unless there’s an injury. Jackson was a bit appealing at the start of 2019 with over 60 total yards in weeks 1 and 2 when Gordon held out. We could see Jackson share touches with Ekeler since even when Gordon returned, the top two backs shared snaps and touches. Jackson’s a great value and sleeper going at pick 165 as the 55th running back drafted.
Keenan Allen finished 2019 with 149 targets, 104 receptions, 1,199 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns. Those total targets ranked fifth, target share ranked ninth, and his 17.1% hog rate ranked sixth. Allen’s always been a focal point of the Chargers offense and it shows up in the hog rate. He ranked top six in receptions, receiving yards, and red zone receptions. Allen’s 16.3 points per game ranked eighth amongst receivers and he’s a PPR machine playing 45.8% of his snaps in the slot. He’s currently going at pick 53 as the 21st receiver drafted, and that’s a great value. The questions at quarterback seemed to be baked into his price.
Mike Williams had his best season to date with 90 targets, 49 receptions, 1,001 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. Williams went from a touchdown regression candidate in 2018 with ten touchdowns to only two touchdowns with increased volume in 2019. He finished eighth in air yards and deep targets with a 16.5% target share that ranked 63rd and 11.4% hog rate that ranked 75th.
He’s definitely more of a big-play receiver. Williams’ 20.4 yards per reception ranked second and 18.1 aDOT ranked first amongst receivers with 20 or more targets. There are receivers with a higher aDOT on airyards.com, but the players above him didn’t reach 20 targets. Williams’ 124 ADP makes him the 48th receiver drafted and that’s a great value even if there are questions at quarterback.
Tight End, Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry finished 2019 with 76 targets, 55 receptions, 652 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. Henry’s 18.1% target share ranked 10th and total targets ranked 12th. He ranked top ten in receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points per game amongst tight ends. Henry missed a handful of games early in the season due to an injury. If he played a full season, Henry was on pace for 72 receptions, 864 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. That would’ve put him as the fifth or sixth best tight end based on season-long numbers.
Henry ranked sixth in air yards and ranked 11th in yards per reception amongst tight ends. He ranked fourth in production premium and target premium, which means that he was extremely efficient last season. Henry’s currently the eighth tight end drafted with a 93 ADP. The tight end position seems relatively deep this year, so I’d be fine waiting past pick 100 for Hayden Hurst and Mike Gesicki.
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