Most of us Fantasy Football analysts are very confident in our predictions about players. But even the best experts are correct usually just 55 percent of the time or so. At least that is the number I have heard quoted frequently over the years. Every call we make has the danger of not being on point. That’s because spontaneous execution, injuries, and other items make our hobby not fully predictable. We’re hitting our target estimations more often than people who don’t do this professionally, though, and strategy is a big part of our advisory process. But the most confident Fantasy predictions often have a chance of going wrong. Every player has a unique statistical floor and ceiling, too. So here is what is out of the ordinary that lurks for sure in 2019. Here is what can happen, good or bad, to ruin the best Fantasy QB forecasts among any of us this season. None of our calls are foolproof. These are best and worst case scenarios.
10 Unexpected Happenings That Could Become Truths at Fantasy QB in 2019.
- Patrick Mahomes Finishing Outside of the Top 3: Mahomes finished 63 points better than any Fantasy QB in 2018 and he has been unquestionably granted No. 1 status at the position for 2019. But as we look forward, and not back, the specter of a Tyreek Hill loss looms large. If Mahomes loses Hill to an extensive suspension, rookie Mecole Hardman simply cannot effectively and immediately replace him. There is just no way Kansas City can account for his lost 1,479 yards and 12 TDs. Without his top playmaker, Mahomes will come back to the Fantasy QB pack in 2019. He may at least finish second behind Andrew Luck and is in danger of falling further than that.
- Aaron Rodgers Finishing Outside the Top 5 while healthy: Rodgers widely is being rated as a Top 3 Fantasy QB out of past respect. He indeed could recapture his better form if he avoids injuries this season. A new regime may institute more offensive balance with a higher emphasis on the running game. That will help prevent defenses from teeing off so much on Rodgers as they have in the past. That approach could also lead to reduced overall production. Plus, the front office did nothing to improve the receiving corps in the offseason.
- Ben Roethsliberger may not be a Top 10 Fantasy starter: No prominent fantasy QB has a less sturdy floor than Roethlisberger, for the obvious reason. He has lost arguably the best wide receiver in the game. JuJu Smith-Schuster still must prove he can be an effective featured WR1, and Donte Moncrief could end being a respectable, but only adequate WR2. There is no guarantee of explosiveness from the Pittsburgh passing game in 2019.
- Jared Goff could be a Top 3 Fantasy QB: This may not seem so crazy when you consider he was the second-best player at the position after 11 weeks in 2018. But Goff was without his favorite WR, Cooper Kupp, the rest of the way and had six TD passes and six INTs in the final month of the regular season. He finished seventh and Fantasy types seem lukewarm on him as 2019 approaches. But with Kupp back and a great WR trio that also includes Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks, Goff will be determined to bounce back and put a forgettable postseason behind him as well.
- Kyler Murray Might Not Be a Fantasy Starter: Murray has drawn detail-by-detail comparisons to Russell Wilson, who was a Fantasy starter in his rookie season. But Murray is not going to sneak up on the league like Wilson did in 2013. Plus, his receiving crew contains one very aged veteran and a crew of other guys that are mostly unproven or inexperienced. I like Murray, but he has to earn a starting Fantasy QB tag first, it cannot be handed to him, and there is a danger his receiving crew could hurt his totals.
- Derek Carr could be a Top 10 Fantasy QB: It’s an overused phrase, and I hate them so much, but it’s now or never for Carr, and he could actually respond in a big way. That’s because he has the best supporting cast of his career so far. We already know how good Brown is, and Tyrell Williams was the most unique combination of size and speed available in free agency. Rookie Josh Jacobs can also catch passes out of the backfield and ease some pressure on Carr. I believe there is no middle ground for Carr this year. He is going to regain Fantasy respect in a big way or fade off to eventually join his brother David as a disappointment. This will be a new beginning for Carr, as in the start of a career revival, or his start on a quick path to being an eventual punchline.
- Mitch Trubisky may push to be a Fantasy starter: We saw some real flashes of promise at times from Trubisky last year, but eventually he settled in mid-range Fantasy QB territory, Trubisky still has all the weaponry in place to take advantage of. The Bears hardly changed anything around him. In his second year with some potentially regularly productive playmakers, Trubisky could take a step forward as he is now more familiar with the crew that was assembled around him.
- Drew Lock might make a big splash as a rookie: Joe Flacco may not agree with this one, but he is no longer capable of preventing such a statement from becoming the truth. Lock throws an outstanding deep ball, and he is fearless and confident. I think he could be the next outstanding gunslinger in this league, maybe a Brett Favre type. If Lock actually outplays Murray as a rookie, you saw it here first. That is what can happen if Murray does not meet expectations and Lock soars above them, and both scenarios are not impossible.
- Sam Darnold elevates to high end Fantasy QB2 status: The Jets have improved the receiving crew for Darnold in a big way, even bringing in one of the premier pass-catching RBs in the game. By season’s end, the only thing separating Darnold from stardom in real and Fantasy life could be not having a true No. 1 WR yet.
- Josh Allen could be a Top 10 Fantasy QB: Down the Fantasy stretch last season, Allen impressed with his running skills, and showed no fear of throwing deep. With an improved receiving crew, Allen may start to emerge as a very potent dual Fantasy threat. He could be a real wild card pick as a top Fantasy QB backup in 2019.
Scott Engel is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s Hall of Fame and a four-time award winner. He was one of the driving content forces in the rise of RotoExperts.com and was the lead host on the RotoExperts in the Morning for six years on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. He was also instrumental in the launch of the FNTSY Sports Network. Scott was the first-ever Senior Writer and Managing Editor at CBS SportsLine and won a company Hall of Fame Award. He was also an Associate Editor and Fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He has been the featured Fantasy Writer on Seahawks.com since 2012 and his work has been syndicated to the Associated Press, NFL.com, New York Daily News, New York Post, Yahoo Sports, Bloomberg Sports, Sports Illustrated and many others. He is a credentialed media member who won an FSWA award in 2016 for his Insider Fantasy Reporting. Known as “The King”, Scott is on Twitter @scotteTheKing
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