Once in a while, it’s fun to hop into the Way Back Machine to put the present into perspective. Today we’re talking about former early first-round picks – Zack Wheeler and Dylan Bundy. Wheeler is a bit older, taken by the Giants with the sixth overall pick back in 2009. Bundy was a couple years behind him, plucked fourth overall by the Orioles in 2011.
Their journeys have both been difficult. Despite being drafted in ’09, this is only Wheeler’s third season over 100 innings at the major league level. Things have been even worse for Bundy, who had to pitch out of the Orioles bullpen once healthy in 2016 because he was out of options. I have condensed each of their injury histories a great deal; otherwise, we would be here all day. While it’s nice to see them both with 23 starts under their belts this year, currently, their stocks are heading in different directions.
Fire – Zack Wheeler
First and foremost, you have to appreciate me writing about a player named Zack. I have a harder time than anything remembering whether the player goes with Zack or Zach, and I’m usually wrong. It’s highly possible I’ll even screw it up within this article. Read closely!
Mr. Wheeler (I can get away with that once, right?) was a huge question mark coming into the year. Not only did we have the aforementioned injury history to take into account, it had been three years since he had been any good. He basically missed 2015-16, and in ’17 he tossed 86.1 innings with a 5.21 ERA. We weren’t even entirely sure he’d be in the majors right away, or even if he’d turn into a bullpen arm. Those who added him early in the season, however, have reaped the rewards. Man, I love to reap a good reward.
While Zack Wheeler has a solid 3.75 ERA on the season, he’s been even better since the start of June. Over those 89.1 innings, Wheeler has a 2.82 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and an absolutely elite 22.3% hard contact rate. That hard contact rate is that best in baseball over that span, keeping company with the likes of Sale, Nola, and Keuchel. And that is not bad company to keep. Also, Bad Company, conversely to their name, are really nice from what I hear.
That limited hard contact has helped him achieve a .274 BABIP, but he’s also been adept at inducing pop-ups. Those are auto-outs, of which he has induced 15.7% of the time – good for top 15 in MLB since June 1st. Alright, so he’s been good. What’s fueling this hot streak, and is it sustainable?
Wheeler’s go-to breaker is his slider, and he’s been using it more since June. He’s switching things up a bit in August with more curves and splitters while phasing out his changeup, but guess what? Those pitches are just fine, too!
Each of his slider, curve, and splitter have a 20%+ whiff rate through 19 August innings! That is beautiful. Through those August innings alone, Wheeler has a 1.42 ERA with a 21.9% K-BB%. At 28 years old, Zack Wheeler is putting together the best season of his career. With the Mets well out of contention, it’s fair to posit the question of whether or not the Mets shut up down early to limit his innings. Until we have to cross that bridge, we need to fire up Wheeler in every league.
Ice – Dylan Bundy
While Dylan Bundy might not have the raw talent of this Dylan (who spits hot fire), he’s had his moments as a major league starter. Heck, last year the Orioles even let him unleash his slider 26% of the time and he gave us 28 starts of a 4.24 ERA. Unfortunately, the Orioles are the worst team in baseball, and Bundy is floundering as well.
Despite a career-high strikeout rate (9.36 K/9) and a solid walk rate (2.80 BB/9), Bundy sits with a 4.99 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. His 5.11 FIP indicates that this isn’t just some misfortune at the hands of some seeing-eye singles. This is a much larger issue. You might recall him posting one of the worst starts in the history of baseball when he gave up seven runs on five hits (four homers) and two walks without retiring a batter. You might also recall his complete game against the White Sox just a few starts later, in which he allowed three runs and struck out 14. You might recall seeing a doctor for whiplash if you owned Bundy in May.
Recently, we’ve seen the bad Bundy. He’s allowed seven earned runs in each of his last two starts, but he’s been bad going back all the way to the beginning of July. Over those 35.2 innings, Bundy has an 8.33 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and 7.3 K/9. He’s been crushed by the long ball with a 21.1% HR/FB, but guess what? Them’s the breaks as a fly-ball heavy pitcher during the summer months in the AL East. Even if you do give him the complete benefit of the doubt and normalize the home run rate with xFIP, he’s still at 5.43. This pitcher is unusable.
What’s going on here? The first thing I checked is his slider usage. It’s been a very good pitch for him since 2017, but it’s been getting hit pretty hard since July. Opposing batters are hitting .325 off the slider with a .625 slug. Sadly, that still ranks as one of his best pitches over this span of grossness. His curve has been used sparingly, which is good because it’s been crushed (.750 ISO) and it’s lost more than 2.5 inches in vertical drop since the start of the season. His slider has lost a bit of depth as well, accounting for some of the woes. If you want to see something sad, check out the whiff rate on his slider as the season has worn on.
Both Bundy and manager Buck Showalter seem to be at a loss for words for the lack of production. Both parties have ruled out injury, with Showalter recently offering “It’s almost like at times, he’d rather have some issue physically. But if you don’t, which at this point we don’t think, you’ve got to look at a lot of different reasons.” Without an injury to point to and without a ton of innings this season, this is either a mechanical issue that needs adjusting, or we are looking at the early decline of Dylan Bundy. At 25, I’m banking on an adjustment setting him straight. Whether that comes at some point this year or its next year is hard to say. Moving forward you simply cannot start Bundy, making him an easy drop in standard mixed leagues.
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