In order to look forward, it’s always helpful to take a look back first. Last April of 2018, some fast starts included Mitch Hangier, Javier Baez and Gerrit Cole. All of whom went onto breakout seasons. It was also a productive time for Eric Thames, Pedro Alavarez and Dylan Bundy. I think we all know how their 2018 seasons went on from there. Spoiler: it wasn’t good.
A fast start to the season could be a catalyst for a career year. It can also be an outlier that could come crashing down upon fantasy owners like Bartolo Colon on a dessert cart. Trying to decipher between the two is no small task. We all want to believe that some of our late draft picks having massive success confirm to our egos that we know our fantasy baseball. However, there are also unsustainable models we have to be realistic about and decide how the risk of the fallout could leave us holding these players past their expiration date.
5 Players That Winter Is Coming For Soon
Tim Beckham, SS SEA
In all transparency, I drafted Tim Beckham almost everywhere. Why you ask? Did I have clairvoyance? No. It was a simple deduction that J.P. Crawford had options and had yet to prove he could hit decent pitching and Beckham would default win the job. Sometimes pragmatism is the best path. He’s just two years removed from a 22 HR season split between Tampa and Baltimore. That being said, his torrid April slash (.386/.471/.773) is going to make an about face very soon. Beckham has benefited from facing some less than stellar pitching thus far versus the A’s, White Sox, Angels and Royals. That schedule gets much trickier starting next week versus the Indians, followed by the Yankees and Reds Sox in early May. It’s not impossible to think you could flip him for a struggling Brian Dozier. Dozier has a much longer track record of productivity, and you can ride his rebound as the Nats enter some favorable ballparks like Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Cincinnati next month.
Tim Anderson, SS CWS
Tim Anderson has a ridiculous .607 BABIP to start the season. Compare that to his career .333 BABIP and you can see the cause for concern. Anderson did post a career .301 BA in the minor leagues, but like Dee Gordon, his speed helps support that number. One thing speed can’t fix is plate discipline. Anderson struck out 332 times (just 64 walks) in 331 minor league games. That high K rate has carried over into the major leagues and in the first few weeks of April, Anderson has 7 K’s in 9 games with just 1 walk. Anderson is likely on your roster for his speed first and foremost. Keep in mind he also had a strong April last year, which he followed up with a .227 BA in May. June through September he never hit more than 3 HR in a month. In May of 2018 he hit 7, which seems like a big outlier. In any H2H format, you should strongly consider looking for a more reliable asset with less streaks in his game.
Yoan Moncada, 3B CWS
I know this is going to be unpopular in many circles, but hear me out. There’s no denying Yoan Moncada has raw baseball talent. The trouble with his hot start is that he’s been a very heralded prospect in the past. Therefore, any good production leads to the inevitable “breakout buzz”. Moncada has struggled so far in his career with Major League pitching to put it bluntly. Here’s the kicker, that may NOT have changed. You see, when you look further into Moncada’s stats you’ll see something startling in his slashes by innings:
INNINGS 1-3: .188/.278/.438
INNINGS 4-6: .250/.250/.375
INNINGS 7-9: .533/.563/1.067
This means Moncada is absolutely feasting on relief pitching, not quality starters. In May, the Indians, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Astros await him in force. NOW is the time to move Moncada before he’s exposed once again.
Matt Shoemaker, SP TOR
It’s wonderful to see a 0.92 ERA for journeyman Matt Shoemaker, but we can’t discard 6 years of data for 3 glorious starts. Shoemaker has done this before, going on some electric runs, only to bottom out back to the waiver wire from whence he came. Take June of 2016 for instance, when he had 45 K/4 BB and a 2.14 ERA. He followed that up with a July of 4.31 ERA. That same year he posted a 9.15 ERA that April and an ERA in the low 3.00’s in May and August. There will be a reckoning. There always is with him. With so many fantasy staffs beset by injuries, Shoemaker is the perfect sell high candidate right now.
Shane Greene, RP DET
Baseball is a game of streaks. Sometimes, it’s also a game of luck. Shane Greene has been one of the more hittable ninth inning guys in recent years, giving up 9.0 H/9 throughout his career. So, why does Shane Greene have 0 ER and a league-leading eight saves? It’s simple. The answer is small sample size, plain, dumb luck. His K/9 has fallen from 9.2 to 7.9 and the H/9 have dropped to 2.3 per 9. There’s a chance you could trade Greene for Craig Kimbrel right now. If I told you that a month ago, you’d have jumped on that. April shouldn’t change that fact. Kimbrel will have a team by Memorial day and Greene could very well be back riding fantasy benches by then.
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Joe Pisapia is the author of the #1 best-selling Fantasy Black Book Series and creator of the revolutionary player evaluation tool Relative Position Value (RPV). He’s the host of The Fantasy Black Book Podcast and the LineStar DFS Podcasts. Joe was previously host of the FSTA award-winning On Target Fantasy (2016 Radio Show of the Year), The Fantasy Black Book Show, RotoExperts in the Morning and NFL Game Day for the FNTSY Fantasy Sports Radio Network, as well as RotoWire MLB/NFL DFS Podcasts, and numerous shows for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. You can also see him frequently on CBS TV in New York on The Sports Desk. He’s written for The Sporting News, FanDuel Insider and FantasyAlarm.
Fantrax is one of the fastest growing fantasy sites of 2018. With multi-team trades, designated commissioner/league managers, and drag/drop easy click methods, Fantrax is sure to excite the serious fantasy sports fan – sign up now for a free year at Fantrax.com.
Joe Pisapia is the author of the #1 best-selling Fantasy Black Book Series and creator of the revolutionary player evaluation tool Relative Position Value (RPV). He’s the host of The Fantasy Black Book Podcast and the LineStar DFS Podcasts. Joe was previously host of the FSTA award-winning On Target Fantasy (2016 Radio Show of the Year), The Fantasy Black Book Show, RotoExperts in the Morning and NFL Game Day for the FNTSY Fantasy Sports Radio Network, as well as RotoWire MLB/NFL DFS Podcasts, and numerous shows for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. You can also see him frequently on CBS TV in New York on The Sports Desk. He’s written for The Sporting News, FanDuel Insider and FantasyAlarm.
Fantrax was one of the fastest growing fantasy sites of 2018 and things are only heading up! With multi-team trades, designated commissioner/league managers, and drag/drop easy click methods, Fantrax is sure to excite the serious fantasy sports fan – sign up now for a free year at Fantrax.com.
Nice article. However, Indians, Redsox and yankees dont sound like tough pitching matchups to me. Red sox have all their pitchers throwing poorly, as do indians, and yankees. I think it will get better for those teams, but there are much tougher pitching matchups than those.