Week 4 Hitter Matchups: Red Hot Baltimore Orioles

We’re in for a full slate of games throughout the week since most teams play six or seven games, and some teams play eight with doubleheaders. As always, we’re listing the teams with easier and difficult Week 4 hitter matchups. Also, we’ll look at favorable hitter matchups for several players that you’ll want to plug into your lineup this week.

Last week we expected the Rockies to hit well playing all their games at home, and their studs plus Garrett Hampson swung hot bats. Unfortunately, the fringe Rockies such as Ryan McMahon, Daniel Murphy, and Matt Kemp struggled. Don’t forget to check out Eric’s waiver wire article, the two-start pitcher article by Chris, and Mick’s streaming pitcher article to plan for Week 4. 

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Week 4 Hitter Matchups

Easier Hitter Matchups

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2 vs. SEA, 2 at SEA, 3 vs. COL
• Chicago White Sox – 4 vs. DET, 3 at CHC
• Miami Marlins – 4 vs. NYM, 4 at WSH (doubleheader 8/22)
• Toronto Blue Jays – 3 at BAL, 2 vs. PHI (doubleheader 8/20), 3 at TB
• Oakland Athletics – 2 at ARI, 2 vs. ARI, 3 vs. LAA

Honorable Mentions:

• Baltimore Orioles – 3 vs. TOR, 4 vs. BOS
• Boston Red Sox – 1 at NYY, 2 vs. PHI, 4 at BAL
• Cleveland Indians – 3 at PIT, 3 vs. DET

Almost every team plays six or seven games with a couple of teams playing doubleheaders with eight games. Outside of Spencer Turnbull, the Tigers starting pitchers are riding the struggle bus, especially their ace Matthew Boyd. The Diamondbacks pitchers have the fourth-worst team ERA and third to last in wOBA allowed, and the Athletics hitters have been heating up with a 122 wRC+ over the last seven days. Speaking of hot bats, the Orioles have a 124 wRC+ (No. 9) over the past seven days. The Phillies and Mets pitchers continue to struggle and rank in the bottom eight in ERA and wOBA allowed. 

The Indians’ offense has struggled mightily lately. Over the last 14 days, the Indians hitters rank dead last with a 65 wRC+. Their offense improved in the past seven days with an 85 wRC+ (No. 26). However, they’re facing the Pirates and Tigers pitchers, and both teams rank in the bottom ten in ERA and wOBA allowed. Indians hitters should heat up this week.

Tougher Hitter Matchups

• Colorado Rockies – 2 at HOU, 2 vs. HOU, 3 at LAD
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 3 vs. CLE, 3 vs. MIL
• Kansas City Royals – 1 at MIN, 2 vs. CIN, 3 vs. MIN

Not many teams with tougher hitter matchups this week since most teams play six or more games, but several of the teams playing six games should fair decently. Indians pitchers have been elite across the board, ranking 3rd in wOBA allowed, 2nd in team ERA, and 3rd as a team in K/9. With the Rockies playing four away games and facing tough Astros and Dodgers pitchers, thus be careful with expectations this week.

Hitter Matchups From Last Week

Week 3 Record: 5 – 5

Record Through 3 Weeks: 13 – 13 – 3

Renato Nunez, 1B, Baltimore Orioles – Win

JaCoby Jones, OF, Detroit Tigers – Loss

Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners – Win

Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B, Washington Nationals – Win

Gio Urshela, 3B, New York Yankees – Loss

Daniel Murphy, 1B, Colorado Rockies – Loss

Ryan McMahon, 2B/3B, Colorado Rockies – Loss

Dylan Moore, SS/OF, Seattle Mariners – Win 

Chris Taylor, 2B/SS/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers – Win

Matt Kemp, OF, Colorado Rockies – Loss

Taking a loss on the Rockies hitters since Garrett Hampson was the only fringe starter that hit well. Eric Cross is probably jumping for joy about his boy Hampson playing well.

Week 4 Hitter Matchups – Red Hot Baltimore Orioles

Renato Nunez, 1B, Baltimore Orioles

Hey, guess who shows up, here again, it’s Renato Nunez. On the season, Nunez is slashing .318/.395/.627 with five home runs, 16 runs, and 13 RBI. Nunez’s Statcast data looks positive with a 42.2% hard-hit rate (77th percentile), a 13.3% barrel rate (86th percentile), and a .420 wOBA (93rd percentile). Although Nunez’s .400 BABIP is high, his 31.1% line drive rate is up as well. The Orioles face the Red Sox for four games and expect Nunez to take advantage of the poor pitching. The power is legit.

Four players have 4 "No Doubt" HR's (HRs that would be HRs in all 30 parks):

1. Aaron Judge
2. Renato Nunez
3. Trent Grisham
4. Trevor Story https://t.co/F492u3ZCg5

— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) August 7, 2020

Anthony Santander, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Similar to Nunez, Anthony Santander is heating up. Santander collected a hit in 11 out of the last 12 games (8/2 – 8/14). During that 12 game stretch, he hit five doubles, one triple, three home runs, nine runs, and 13 RBI while slashing .275/.288/.588. Santander also increased his line drive rate to 28.8% and lowered his ground ball rate to 27.3%. His 40.3% hard-hit rate (65th percentile) and 90.1 mph average exit velocity (71st percentile) rank both above average. Plug Santander in your lineup with confidence.

Hanser Alberto, 2B/3B, Baltimore Orioles

Hanser Alberto is an underrated source of batting average, runs, and contact ability, which all balance out his low average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He’s hitting .337/.368/.530 with two home runs, 16 runs, ten RBI, and one steal. Interestingly, Alberto’s 26.4% line drive rate also increased while lowering his ground ball rate by about 5% to 41.7%. He’s also pulling the ball significantly more at 51.4% with a 43.8% career average.

Alberto’s zone contact and contact rates are around 8-9% above league average. He barely walks or strikes out, but swings and makes contact outside of the zone with a 49.1% O-Swing% (almost 20% above league average), and a 74.4% O-Contact% (14% above league average). Overall, he’s using an aggressive approach with a healthy line drive rate and a low 10.3% strikeout rate. Ride Alberto’s hot streak into week four.

Casual reminder that Hanser Alberto leads all of baseball in doubles. pic.twitter.com/hj8gwEEwql

— Orioles on MASN (@masnOrioles) August 16, 2020

Pedro Severino, C, Baltimore Orioles

If you are hurting at catcher, then take a shot with Pedro Severino. He’s swinging a hot bat with four home runs, five runs, 13 RBI, and one steal while slashing .308/.379/.577. When looking at his batted ball profile, it’s difficult to find evidence backing up the hot start. Severino’s 14.3% line drive dropped from 23.2% while his fly ball rate jumped up to 47.6%. He’s typically displayed a 48% pull rate, but it’s down over 6% while hitting the ball to center over 44% of the time. Severino’s hard-hit rate and average exit velocity rank in the bottom 15th percentile. With all that said, he ranks inside the top-10 in plate appearances, home runs, and RBI amongst catchers, meaning he’s producing with regular at-bats.

Week 4 Hitter Matchups – Start Them

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Miami Marlins

The Marlins missed several games due to postponements, and someone like Jesus Aguilar may be riding the bench or on waivers. Aguilar is off to a productive yet underrated start with four home runs, seven runs, and 15 RBI while slashing .306/.339/.592. He’s also lowered his strikeout rate to 10.7% in the small sample, and he’s sporting a career-low 5.5% swinging-strike rate.

Aguilar’s 28.3% line drive rate is up from his 22.3% career average. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both slightly lower than his 2018 breakout year numbers. However, start Aguilar this week since he’s swinging a hot bat and could be a 2020 bounce back player with four games against the Mets in the week 4 hitter matchups.

Tommy La Stella, 1B/2B/3B, Los Angeles Angels

Tommy La Stella continues to be a consistent hitter and on-base machine for the Angels. He’s slashing .286/.403/.429 with one home run, five runs, and six RBI. La Stella’s heating up during an eight-game stretch (8/6 – 8/14), where he’s slashing .357/.419/.571 with three doubles, one home run, three runs, and six RBI.

Love to see La Stella’s 25% line drive rate, and he’s pulling the ball more often at 51.9% about 11% above his career average. La Stella should take advantage of Giants pitchers that rank fifth-worst in wOBA allowed. Monitor the pitching matchups because he generally hits for more power and batting average against right-handed pitchers since he’s a lefty.

Gio Urshela, 3B, New York Yankees

Another returner to this list, Gio Urshela, who has hit three home runs, 11 runs, 13 RBI, and one steal while slashing .271/.371/.492. Although Urshela has one hit in his last 18 plate appearances, he’s smacking the ball with a 90.8 mph average exit velocity (87th percentile) and 44.9% hard-hit rate (86th percentile). His expected stats also show there’s potential for improvement with a .328 xBA (96th percentile) and a .584 xSLG (91st percentile). Look for him to get back on track with week 4 hitter matchups against the Mets for three and Boston for one. Check this line-drive home run he hit on Saturday at 100.2 mph.

IT'S GONE 👋

Gio Urshela puts the @Yankees on the board with a 2-run shot! pic.twitter.com/Z1qqJacYwd

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 15, 2020

Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, New York Mets

Over the last week or so, Dominic Smith is hitting .296/.333/.815 with five doubles, three home runs, five runs, and seven RBI. Smith’s season-long line looks even better with five home runs, eight runs, and 14 RBI while slashing .283/.375/.717. When looking at his batted ball profile, Smith’s line drive rate dropped to 14.3% when it’s typically at or above 20%. Smith’s fly ball rate jumped up 14% to 51.4% while his ground ball rate dropped to 34.3%.

Outside of a 17.1% barrel rate (93rd percentile), his Statcast data does not jump off the page. Smith’s better suited for daily lineup leagues since he typically struggles against lefties in his career. However, this season, Smith’s hitting for a higher batting average against lefties. The Mets face the Marlins for four games, and the Marlins have three projected right-handed starters this week with two spots to be determined. In the meantime, let’s enjoy a Dom Smith moonshot.

Dom Smith with a MOONSHOT to get the Mets on the board 💥💣 pic.twitter.com/W4g4g3heMo

— SNY (@SNYtv) August 7, 2020

Kole Calhoun, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

In August, Kole Calhoun has performed well slotted as the Diamondbacks leadoff hitter. Through ten games in August, Calhoun’s hit three doubles, four home runs, ten runs, and 12 RBI while slashing .317/.364/.683. Calhoun’s Statcast data looks solid with an above-average 41.2% hard-hit rate (65th percentile), and an 11.8% barrel rate (72nd percentile). Calhoun’s 93.1 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 123) ties him with Nolan Arenado. His expected stats also indicate that he can improve with a .301 xBA (71st percentile), a .596 xSLG (78th percentile), and a .414 xwOBA (81st percentile). Ride Calhoun’s hot streak in his week 4 hitter matchups.

Robbie Grossman, OF, Oakland Athletics

The switch-hitting outfielder Robbie Grossman mostly plays against right-handed pitchers, and he’s one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Grossman’s slashing .306/.460/.612 with three home runs, seven runs, nine RBI, and four steals. Most of his production occurred during a six-game stretch from 8/7 – 8/14 with three home runs, seven runs, five RBI, and two steals with a .421/.621/1.105 slash line. 

Grossman’s 45% pull rate increased by almost 15%, and his 89.7 mph average exit velocity also increased from his 87 mph career average. His expected stats look promising with a .301 xBA (86th percentile), a .566 xSLG (88th percentile), and a .433 xwOBA (96th percentile). Overall, Grossman has shown positive gains in the quality of contact, and he looks to take advantage of the Diamondbacks. Although Roster Resource projects Grossman to platoon, he has been playing almost every day. 

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