We’ve come into this Week 3 Starts column, two weeks more informed than we were at the beginning of the year. Offseason projections are beginning to sour and new realities are revealing themselves. Have you been keeping up with all the games?
Here’s a few highlights:
- Aaron Rodgers is hurt. Aaron Rodgers is also superman.
- The Bills: “…are who we thought they were.”
- In fantasy football, quarterbacks don’t matter
- Production from even the very best running backs is a function of their team
- In Broncos country, if a number 30’s running the ball, take notice
Three weeks is the supposed threshold at which many fantasy analysts accept a large enough sample has been presented to draw conclusions. For this reason we must still temper our expectations from players based on what we’ve seen. Still, we might as well use the eyes we have and figure out what to make of it all. Let’s dive into Week 3.
Check out our Week 3 Sleepers: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Week 3 Starts and Sits
Start These Quarterbacks:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has a premier matchup against a Steelers defense that has already been burned through the air twice this season. Last week, the Steelers struggled mightily against second-year starter Patrick Mahomes and have let an average of 261.5 yards and 3.5 TDs by them so far in 2018. This mark ranks them 31st in the league.
In both of his games in 2018, Fitzpatrick has lit up the scoreboard to the tune of an average of 409.5 yards and 4 TDs per game. Though veteran cornerback, Joe Hayden, is on track for a return in time for this game I’d give the advantage to DeSean Jackson and Mike Evans. Don’t overthink this one. Keep rolling out Fitzmagic until the wheels fall off.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay’s secondary is actually in a worse position than the Steelers defensive backfield, which is saying something. Injuries have decimated Tampa Bay as they have had CB Vernon Hargreaves ruled out for the year and CB Brent Grimes not expected to be healthy in time for this contest. Big Ben is seemingly staring at another shootout head-on as he will be forced to throw to keep pace with the high-powered Buccaneers offense and I do not believe he will disappoint.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes is another of the obvious Week 3 starts this week and is quickly entering every-week starter status. This week should theoretically provide an even easier path to success as the Kansas City Chiefs will play at home for the first time this season. The team they’ll face, the San Francisco 49ers, do not have the talent in the defensive backfield to effectively match up with the speed the Chiefs possess on the outside. So far this season the 49ers rank just 25th against the pass in terms of fantasy points scored by QBs. There’s no reason Mahomes shouldn’t be starting on your team if you were lucky enough to draft him this year, above even guys like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
Sit These Quarterbacks:
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
Bortles actually has a plus matchup this week against a secondary that has been struggling so far this season. The reason I am recommending him as a sit instead of a start is because I don’t expect Jaguars OC, Nathaniel Hackett, to employ the same volume passing tactics he did last week against the Patriots. Instead, I expect the Jaguars to get out to a comfortable lea rather early in this one and to then focus on the ground game from then on. Bortles simply wont have the volume to be a QB1 this week.
Phillip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers
Any QB going against the Los Angeles Rams this season will most likely find their name on this list. The cornerback duo of Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters is stifling and the presence of Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald only exacerbates matters. Rivers’ lack of mobility may be an issue this week as the pocket Rivers is normally accustomed to collapse from consistent interior pressure, Forcing Rivers off his spot. As a gunslinger, Rivers will have to pass to stay in this one but I think we have a large enough sample size to reason that Rivers may be prone to a mistake or two. Expect a tough day at the office for Rivers and the entire Chargers offense on Sunday.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
This season it seems Wilson is a man with the weight of the world on his shoulders. The offensive line is suspect, his number one receiver is on the shelf, and he has next to no running game to balance the offense. All of these factors keep a bulls-eye firmly planted on Wilson’s chest plate and he has suffered 12 sacks in two games largely because of it. This week he’ll face a Cowboys defense that ranks fifth in passing defense and has already compiled nine sacks. Look to Wilson to have another underwhelming outing in this one.
Start These Running Backs:
Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins
Another player certainly entering every-week starter status is turning out exactly like I expected he would. His quarterback, Alex Smith, has a bottom-5 (5.7y/a) a-dot this season and has returned to his old check-down ways with the Redskins. As the main beneficiary of Smiths reluctance to throw it deep, Thompson has averaged 10.5 targets per contest in 2018, good enough for third league-wide behind only Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley. As Washington will surely be pushed to pass to keep pace with the explosive Packers offense, we can reasonably expect more of the same from Thompson this week.
Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders
The Raiders face the Mami Dolphins this week in what should be a low scoring contest due to deficiencies on offense for both of these teams. Why the Lynch pick then? Because of the awful run defense and stiff pass defense the Raiders will face. Expect HC Jon Gruden to employ a game plan designed around pounding the rock with Lynch and not over-exposing the inconsistent Derek Carr to this Miami Dolphins squad.
Corey Clement, Philadelphia Eagles
Jay Ajayi has dealt with a back injury this week and Darren Sproles has a hamstring problem. Both have missed multiple practices and their availability for Sunday is in question. Corey Clement also gets to face the Colts 24th ranked rush defense. As Carson Wentz returns to game action off of the knee injury he suffered last year, the Eagles should look to ease him in and run the ball early and often. Adding to this theory is the fact that the Eagles are also down multiple pass catchers in the form of WRs Alshon Jeffery and Mike Wallace.
Sit These Running Backs
LeSean McCoy/Marcus Murphy, Buffalo Bills
McCoy suffered a rib injury in Week 2 and is questionable to play. Regardless of who gets the nod, don’t pencil either in for any reasonable level of production against the vaunted Minnesota defense. So far this season the Vikings have only allowed 94 yards per game to opposing running backs after ranking second in the league last season in that category. Expect the Vikings to get out to a lead early and the Bills forced to pass to catch up.
Adrian Peterson, Washington Redskins
Peterson’s situation is similar to the one above in that I expect him to quickly be game scripted out of this one. I don’t expect Washington to have a prayer against the high-powered Green Bay offense and they certainly won’t if they choose to give Peterson the snaps consistently over their passing down option, Chris Thompson. Peterson may get a lucky goal-line look or two but it is very difficult to foresee him compiling many yards on the ground this week.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
As an offensive player at any position in the National Football League you probably don’t circle the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars as one which you look forward to. Henry will struggle against this defense and that’s assuming he’ll get a decent number of carries to do his damage. Pro tip – he won’t. Dion Lewis is definitely the play if you absolutely must start a Titans offensive player this week as he should at least benefit from a negative, catch-up game script. Do yourself a favor, bench anyone in a Titans uniform this week and moving forward until Mariota returns.
Start These Wide Receivers
Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars
The video game catch last week by Cole is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of his talent level. Cole was a premier collegiate producer and showed that he could play to that level in the pros late last season as he ranked as the WR11 in weeks 11-17. This week he’ll likely be covered by CB Malcom Butler who has struggled in his first two games as a Titan. With RB Leonard Fournette in doubt this game with a hamstring ailment, look for the Jaguars to employ the same tactics they used to defeat the Patriots last week – passing early and often. That said, I don’t expect the Titans to put many points on the board which will limit Cole’s opportunities due to an exceedingly positive game script.
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears
Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has eyes for Allen Robinson and for Allen Robinson alone it seems. Over the first couple of weeks, Robinson has been targeted 21 times. While that number isn’t mind-blowing at initial glance it gets more interesting when put into context. Robinson’s 21 targets account for a 31-percent target share, good enough for ninth in the NFL. Robinson will be in a plus matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this week and will remain the number one read on the overwhelming majority of QB Mitchell Trubisky’s drop-backs again this week. The hope is that improvements from Mitchell Trubisky in a good offensive scheme this year will lead directly to more red zone looks and touchdowns for Robinson.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Start. This. Man. Every. Week. In PPR leagues Cooper Kupp is one of those invaluable players that provide decent floors on a weekly basis. So far this season, Cooper Kupp has garnered a 23.1-percent target share and maintained his top 10 red zone target share percentage as one of Goff’s most trusted targets. Chargers CB Casey Hayward should shadow Brandin Cooks this week, which should provide an easier time for both Kupp and WR Robert Woods for week 3.
Sit These Wide Receivers
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Lockett has been one of the few bright spots on the Seattle Seahawks offense this season and while I still believe in him long term, I wouldn’t be comfortable counting on him this week. The Dallas Cowboys’ strength is arguably their defensive backfield and the Seahawks have offensive line woes that will prove very troubling once again. The wild card, as it usually is, is the health of Sean Lee. If he plays, the Seahawks wont be able to run the ball to balance their offense and Russell Wilson will be in for another long day at QB.
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
Larry Legend far too often finds himself on teams that don’t deserve his greatness. This year’s rendition of Arizona’s squad happens to be one of those occasions. New head coach Steve Wilks and OC Mike McCoy haven’t been able to put together any semblance of an effective offense yet and I’d reason they’ll be under considerable pressure without a much better offensive performance this week. After taking in Baker Mayfield’s NFL regular season debut on Thursday can we expect to see Rosen’s this Sunday? I think so. Either way, Bradford and Rosen won’t enjoy facing Khalil Mack and the Chicago Bears. Without solid QB play, Larry must be sat on benches this week.
Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders
I can admit when I’m wrong and I was wrong about Amari Cooper last week. Still, I believe in my process of considering talent, role, DB matchups, and overall defense when making my start/sit recommendations. Amari faced a tough CB (Chris Harris) and a relatively good defense in DEN last week and many of those factors remain in Week 3. Cooper will likely see a lot of Minkah Fitzpatrick in the slot and while the rookie is inexperienced, he has shown well so far this year. Miami also isn’t an awful defense overall and the Dolphins have yet to lose this year, though they haven’t faced any top sides. Consistency for Both Cooper and his QB Derek Carr has always been an issue. I wouldn’t be surprised if both ticked back down this week in what will likely be another low-scoring affair.
Start These Tight Ends
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
Kittle was tremendously hyped this past offseason for good reason as he looked locked in as the top target for Jimmy G in that San Francisco offense. Last week however, Kittle underwhelmed with only two receptions for 22 yards on four targets. Things should improve this week. For one, San Francisco faces the third worst defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to TEs in the Kansas City Chiefs. From another angle, the 49ers will likely be forced to throw more to catch up to the Chiefs on the road. As a last point Kittle could potentially face no competition from a target standpoint as Marquise Goodwin misses this game due to injury.
Jesse James, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have been looking for another reliable TE since Heath Miller’s retirement. I think Jesse James has a chance to be that man. He flashed in a couple contests last season and has received a steady share of the targets so far this year (5 tgts/gm). The issue with him was always going to be where his opportunities would come from as he obviously would have to overcome the presence of Antonio Brown, Juju-Smith Schuster, and James Connor in that offense. Still, if he maintains this level of efficiency on the looks he does receive (8/10 80% catch rate, 19.8 yards per target), he should be a safe TE play for the majority of the season.
Eric Ebron, Indianapolis Colts
In Indianapolis the two leading tight ends, Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron, are actually competing for the role of the number two target on their team behind T.Y. Hilton. The absence of a true number two receiver has presented the opportunity for both to be viable TE options this seasons and we’ve seen signs of this so far. Though Doyle has dominated the snaps in the first two games, Ebron has proven the more efficient receiver and has two TDs to Doyle’s 0. Doyle has missed multiple practices this week and isn’t a lock to suit up Sunday against the Eagles, locking Ebron in as one of my favorite Week 3 starts.
Sit These Tight Ends
Evan Engram, New York Giants
The New York Giants might have one of the worst pass-blocking O-lines in the NFL. Couple this with a quarterback who is seemingly seeing ghosts on the field in Eli Manning and unimaginative play calling and you get the Giants’ current state of affairs. That said, this offense is simply too talented to not improve from a year-long perspective. This game is not when they turn it around however. Engram specifically will face one of the league’s best slot safeties in Tyrann Mathieu and the Giants as a whole will be under siege from the pressures of Clowney and Watt all game long. TE is brutal though so play Engram if you must. Just don’t expect fireworks.
Will Dissly, Seattle Seahawks
Many of the concerns I have with Dissly’s possible performance in Week 3 are shared in the Lockett section above. Though he’s caught two touchdowns in two games this season, I worry that he won’t be very useful to fantasy gamers this week if he can’t manage to haul in another one. So far this season the Cowboys have only surrendered one garbage time TD to Evan Engram and that was against an offense that also contains OBJ and Saquon Barkley. The Cowboys should be able to key in on stopping just Lockett and Dissly in this one. This also assumes the Seahawks even give Wilson any time to throw, which is a complete toss-up at this point.
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
Kyle Rudolph’s usage so far this season has been wildly inconsistent to say the least. In Week 1 he was only targeted on two occasions, resulting in one catch for 11 yards and a score. In week two, he saw eight targets and reeled in seven of them for 72 yards with no TDs. What should we expect from him this week? I think a TD dependent performance closer to Week 1 is the answer here as the Vikings were forced to air it out more than they normally do against the rival Green Bay Packers. Their game against the Bills this week should allow for them to go much more run-heavy late and their third target in the passing game will likely see less volume because of it.
Start These Defenses
Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills (+17)
Houston Texans vs NY Giants (+6)
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals (Even)
Sit These Defenses
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins (-3)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams (+7)
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