Start and sit decisions are among the most difficult to make in fantasy football. Nothing feels worse than starting a stud who lays an egg in lieu of that hot waiver pickup you weren’t quite sure about. Conversely, benching a star on a terrible matchup to start the Fitzmagic Man of the week to devastating effect can make you feel like Aaron Rodgers feels every time he touches a football. Let’s dig into who you guys should FIRE Or Flush this week and get the down low on Week 2 Start ’em Sit ’em.
NFL Week 2 Start ’em Sit ’em
Start these QBs
Ben Roethlisberger PIT (KC@PIT) [-4.5]
This matchup will be a shootout if I have ever laid my eyes on one. Coming off a tie with Cleveland (The Browns best start since 2004) Big Ben, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Le’… err James Connor will face a defense without their best player in Eric Berry. They will be highly motivated to bounce back. Ben Roethlisberger has 54 300-yard games in his career, good enough for seventh place dating back to 1960. After this week, he’ll have 55. I’d throw in three-plus TDs as well and I’m being conservative. Ben is also at home in this matchup and has a long, documented history of being much better at home than on the road in his career.
Patrick Mahomes II KC (KC@PIT) [-4.5]
Week 1 displayed in full view the tantalizing potential Mahomes possesses in this league. With only 15 completions on 27 attempts, Mahomes ran away with AFC player of the week honors. He’ll be forced to pass more this week. The combination of his cannon arm, HC Andy Reid’s play calling, and Tyreek Hill’s deep speed is an effective one and will continue to be all season.
The comment in the Roethlisberger blurb about this being a high scoring contest also applies to Mahomes. I don’t think it will be a stretch to say that I think he’ll match Ben’s numbers and throw for 300-plus yards and three TDs himself. Look for Mahomes to remain hot for at least the early portion of the season as defensive coordinators still don’t have enough tape to effectively dissect his tendencies.
Drew Brees NO (CLE@NO) [-9]
Drew Brees lit Tampa Bay up in Week 1 in a losing effort as the Saints ran into the buzz saw that was Ryan Fitzpatrick. There is no reason for that to change now. In fact, there should be optimism for an improved performance, as Brees will be facing a more inexperienced secondary with rookie CB Denzel Ward leading the Browns DBs. Cleveland’s proficiency on defense was largely aided by the awful weather in Cleveland last week. They will have no such luck in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Brees has thrown 110 300-yard passing games in his career, 17 more than the second-highest QB on that list, Peyton Manning. Look for another big day from Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michale Thomas.
Sit these Quarterbacks
Sam Bradford ARZ (ARZ@LAR) [-12.5]
The Arizona Cardinals offense struggled mightily against a Washington defense that ranked 11th in Defensive DVOA in Week 1 and now get to face a Rams defense that forced Derek Carr into three turnovers last week. Bradford will be under siege in this contest and will be sure to face massive amounts of inside pressure from league best DTs Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. With Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters on the outside and Sam Shields manning the slot, it is likely to be a long day for Bradford and the rest of the Cardinals offense. The betting line tells the story here. Start him at your own risk.
Ryan Tannehill MIA (MIA@NYJ) [-3]
In his first regular season action in two years Ryan Tannehill wasn’t awful. Unfortunately, he wasn’t very good either. This week the Dolphins offense will be tasked with dealing with a Jets defense that demolished Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions to the tune of four interceptions. Tannehill already has two on the board himself this season and, though I expect we’ve seen an outlier performance from the Jets defense, I wouldn’t bet against Tannehill throwing a couple more. NYJ linebacker, Darron Lee, was quoted as saying, “We knew [Matthew Stafford’s] signals.” You can expect the Jets to again be fully prepared to take on the Dolphins. As a side note, some good news for Tannehill comes in the form of S Marcus Maye still not participating in practice. Maybe we can expect to see Kenyan Drake get loose a bit in the passing game.
Josh Allen BUF (LAC@BUF) [+7]
I have zero confidence in making this start ’em sit ’em decision for Week 2. I want nothing to do with the Bills and I want even less to do with Josh Allen’s first NFL start. Allen, the 10th pick of this most recent NFL draft, only completed 54.5 percent of his attempts in the preseason and averaged a paltry 4.8 Y/A. As a midgame replacement for Nathan Peterman in Week 1, Allen completed 6 of 15 passes for just 74 yards. The LAC defense is eager to make a better account for themselves after being carved apart by KC in Week 1. Though they are down some key playmakers in CB Jason Verrett and DE Nick Bosa, it must be noted that the Chargers finished with 43 sacks and had a turnover ratio of +12 last season. Run as far away as you possibly can from this one.
Week 2 Sleepers: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Start these Running Backs
Chris Thompson WAS (IND@WAS) [-6]
Chris Thompson has averaged an astonishing 1.47 PPR fantasy points per touch in 2017. This mark was good enough for second among RBs last season behind only Alvin Kamara. Before going down with a broken Fibula in Week 10, Thompson was on pace for over 1000 yards from scrimmage as one of the main targets in the Redskins passing game. Last week, Thompson turned just five carries and seven targets into 128 total yards from scrimmage and a TD for good measure. The Colts defense is suspect on all levels, expect good things from both Thompson and Adrian Peterson this week.
Christian McCaffrey CAR (CAR@ATL) [-6]
Christian MCcaffery is among the league’s best receivers from the running back spot. Last season was evidence of this fact as McCaffrey was targeted a whopping 113 times resulting in 80 receptions for 651 yards and five TDs in his rookie season. This week, he’ll face an Atlanta defense without LB Deion Jones and S Keanu Neal. I can’t envision a scenario he doesn’t turn a wheel route into six in this contest.
Royce Freeman DEN (OAK@DEN) [-6]
The Denver Broncos handed rookie RB Royce Freeman 15 carries in his first NFL start. He turned those opportunities into 71 yards, good enough for 4.73 yards per attempt on the ground. Though co-rookie Phillip Lindsay will definitely be in line to share touches, I expect the Denver offense to be more focused on the run this year with QB Case Keenum at the helm. Last week, Keenum threw for three TDs and three INTs, displaying the good and bad of his game. If the Broncos want to record a positive turnover differential this season, they’ll be better served asking less from their signal caller and taking less risky shots. In Week 1 Oakland’s defense was gashed by Todd Gurley and company to the tune of 140 yards (25th “best” in the league). I’d bet HC Vance Joseph took notice.
Sit these Running Backs
LeSean McCoy LAC (LAC@BUF) [+7]
Noticing a theme? Don’t invest in this Bills offense under any circumstance. Against the Chargers, it’s an even worse idea. Los Angeles only surrendered 106 yards last week and ranked 13th league-wide in rush yards allowed. The Bills only averaged 3.4 yards per attempt last week and will see stacked boxes early and often until QB Josh Allen proves he can beat the defenses consistently. Until that happens, safeties will cheat towards stopping McCoy and the rest of the Bills run game.
DeVonta Freeman ATL (CAR@ATL) [-6]
Much like Corey Davis, Devonta Freeman’s name is one that has often appeared on the injury report as of late. This week is no different as Freeman has been officially ruled out for Sunday’s game. But the story doesn’t change even if you take a long-term view of it. If already missing games in Week 2 wasn’t concerning enough, digging into the numbers a bit, it’s not hard to see that Freeman’s role may be changing. Since Tevin Coleman has entered the league he has steadily encroached on Freeman’s touches year after year. In 2017, Coleman commanded 42 percent of the total touches distributed to RBs. Many view Freeman as a low-end RB1 and refer to him as a “workhorse.” Don’t be one of those people.
Derrick Henry TEN (HOU@TEN) [+2]
Derrick Henry is an enormous human being. Dion Lewis is a more efficient runner. In 2017 Dion Lewis outpaced Derrick Henry in yards per carry, yards per touch, breakaway runs, evaded tackles, and juke rate. Dion Lewis does have a lengthy injury history however. As we saw in Week 1 against the Dolphins, Lewis may very well end up being worth more in fantasy leagues because he clearly may be more than just a PPR guy. Henry is game-script dependent. Against a stout Texans defense that will face an injured Marcus Mariota manning the QB spot, expect yards on the ground to be game-planned for and come at an extreme premium.
Start these Wide Receivers
Quincy Enunwa NYJ (MIA@NYJ) [-3]
Having held onto Quincy Enunwa after witnessing his mini breakout as the third option behind Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker in 2016, I was ecstatic to see my faith repaid in Week 1. In just 13 games in 2016, Enunwa received 105 targets as the third option in the Jets passing attack. This is telling. Without a tight end of consequence, the Jets will be forced to concentrate their targets to the options on the outside for as many times as they elect to pass. This was evident in Week 1 as Enunwa saw 10 of 21 total targets for a massive 48-percent target share. Though this is bound to regress, I think we’ve witnessed who Darnold will be most comfortable throwing to this season. As he starts primarily in the slot he will also have the added benefit of avoiding most CB1s this year.
Tyreek Hill KC (KC@PIT) [-4.5]
The skill sets of Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill are a perfect complement to one another. Perhaps this is why Mahomes targeted Hill on 8 of 27 drop backs in Week 1, good enough for a 30-percent share of the targets in KC. Mahomes also looked Hill’s way often throughout the preseason and I think its safe to say we have seen the strongest chemistry between those two in the KC offense. A threat to take it to the house on any given snap, I don’t foresee Hill’s Week 1 receiving line of 7-169-2 as too far outside the norm this season. He is an every-week start regardless of matchup and points don’t look to come at a premium this week.
Cooper Kupp LAR (ARZ@LAR) [-12.5]
Speaking of every-week plays, Cooper Kupp is another one, especially in PPR leagues. He’s not a particularly exciting talent athletically, but he runs excellent routes, beats off-coverage, and knows how to find the holes in zone defenses. He also has Jared Goff’s complete trust. Last season, Kupp was the receiver targeted on the largest percentage of third downs for the Rams and Kupp was again tops in red zone targets with 23, more than double the next highest, Todd Gurley commanded. Last season the Rams ran 11 personnel 81% of the time, a rate more than 20% higher than the next highest team to cater to having Kupp on the field in all situations. Last week, Kupp tied for the lead on the team in targets with nine balls thrown his way and came away with the only WR touchdown. Cooper Kupp is not your average “slot” reciever. He will also likely avoid Patrick Peterson this week who will probably stay on the outside to handle Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods.
Sit these Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper OAK (OAK@DEN) [-6]
I know the Rams have one of the best secondaries in the league. I know this was Jon Gruden’s first game back on the sidelines after a long layoff. I don’t care, I’m still worried about Amari Cooper both for this week and for the long term. Last season, Cooper recorded more than 10 fantasy PPR points in just 6 games and he again laid an egg with just one catch for nine yards on Monday night. Now he’ll face arguably the best slot corner in the league in Chris Harris who will have no issues shadowing Coop regardless of his alignment. Derek Carr’s poor play will also do him no favors. This isn’t just a Week 2 start ’em sit ’em decision, trade Cooper before its too late. It might get worse before it gets better… and it might not get better.
Kelvin Benjamin BUF (LAC@BUF) [+7]
Everything previously said about Josh Allen should have fantasy gamers equally concerned with Kelvin Benjamin. In an anemic offense on the road against a stout defense, I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting any Bills across the board. It won’t help that Benjamin will draw the coverage of Casey Hayward, PFF’s “top coverage defender” in 2017. Last season Hayward allowed just 42.7 percent of passes his way to be caught and opposing quarterbacks had a 58.6 passer rating when targeting him. He’ll likely be shadowing Benjamin all over the field in this one.
Corey Davis TEN (HOU@TEN) [+2]
Delanie Walker being done for the year should, in theory, guarantee Davis even more targets than the 12 he saw in game one but not so fast. Davis’ name popped up on the injury report for Week 2, as he was listed as a limited participant in practice both Wednesday and Thursday due to a hamstring issue. He is reported to have said that he feels fine, but I don’t buy a non-100% Davis making a huge impact in game two. I believe we saw what Davis looked like last year when he plays injured and the sight wasn’t a pretty one.
Long term, I believe Davis is on a path to have his breakout year in 2018, but he’s got to find a way to figure out how to prevent the nagging injuries that have limited him so far throughout his short career. The shoulder injury to Marcus Mariota is also a situation to monitor as he was downgraded from a full to a limited participant on Thursday. I believe both of these guys will be on the field Sunday, but I’m not going to believe they will be at their best if they don’t feel quite right physically.
Start these Tight Ends
Jordan Reed WAS (IND@WAS) [-6]
When healthy, an argument can be made for Reed being the best TE in the NFL. Though I wouldn’t go that far, Reed has displayed per game averages that rank him among the league’s very best at the TE position. Over the past two seasons, Reed has ranked in the top 20 in yards per route run in the NFL and already has a touchdown on the board this year. As the clear No. 1 receiving option in Washington this season, Reed is a good play regardless of matchup. This week just happens to also be a an especially good one.
Jared Cook OAK (OAK@DEN) [-6]
Jared Cook benefitted from a game plan focused on avoiding the best players in an elite defensive backfield in Week 1. The Broncos DBs won’t make things any easier. Expect the Raiders to employ a similar game plan this week to try and throw around star CB Chris Harris. John Gruden praised Jared Cook heavily in the offseason and was stated as saying, “Jared Cook has had a great camp. I did not know Jared could move like that.” Look for Cook to continue to be a large part of the offense this week. Be mindful of his QB, Derek Carr’s struggles however.
Travis Kelce KC (KC@PIT) [-4.5]
Recent history is on the opposite side of my Travis Kelce take as he only recorded four catches for 37 yards in last year’s contest. Week 1 wasn’t a banner one for him either. The reason I’m suggesting to start Kelce is because I expect a bounce back against this team and after his dismal Week 1 start. Patrick Mahomes will be under pressure to pile up the points to keep pace with Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense and Kelce can expect to see more balls thrown his way as a result. KC only attempted 27 passes in their last game. Look for that number to drastically increase.
Sit these Tight Ends
Kyle Rudolph MIN (MIN @ GB) [-1]
At best, Kyle Rudolph is likely the third read on any given play behind Stefon Diggs, Adam Theilen, and Dalvin Cook. I believe this was part of the reason Rudolph was held to only one catch in his team’s most recent outing. Though he did manage to make the grab for the touchdown last week, it will be difficult to continue to produce at only two targets per game. Green Bay allowed a whopping one reception for 15 yards to Trey Burton last week and is known to shut down production from the TE position. I wouldn’t expect fireworks from Rudolph this week.
Cameron Brate TB (PHI@TB) [+3]
If, like me, you were holding on to the hope that Cameron Brate would be a serviceable TE this year worthy of the six year $40M contract he just signed, Week 1 shook you through to the bones. Brate was only on the field for 36 percent of the snaps last week to Howard’s 65 percent, and only saw two targets in a catch-less performance. While Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t known to be particularly fond of throwing to his TE’s, having targeted them on only 18 percent of his drop-backs last week, the jury remains out on what Brate’s role will be moving forward. I’d expect an uptick in Brate’s production once Winston is reinstalled as Tampa Bay’s number one QB. But prolonged exposure to the Fitzmagic experience may prevent that eventuality. This line of argument doesn’t even account for Philadelphia’s smothering defense.
Austin Hooper ATL (CAR@ATL) [-6]
The simple truth for Austin Hooper and those that roster him in fantasy leagues is that he has a number of factors preventing him from being a consistent point producer, especially in this matchup against Carolina. 1. Steve Sarkisian’s offensive scheme and play calling aren’t helping this team capitalize on the many red zone looks they create for themselves. This is a problem for TEs that largely rely on steady TD production to produce fantasy points. 2. Atlanta’s is a crowded offense. Julio Jones, DeVonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Calvin Ridley, and Mohamed Sanu are all arguably higher on the target totem pole on this team. 3. Luke Kuechly. Yeah, look elsewhere for points from the TE spot for week 2.
Start these Defenses
LAC (LAC@BUF) [+7]
HOU (HOU@TEN) [+2]
CHI (SEA@CHI) [-3.5]
Sit these Defenses
CLE (CLE@NO) [-9]
ARZ (ARZ@LAR) [-12.5]
DAL (NYG@DAL) [-3]
Thanks for reading my Week 2 Start ’em Sit ’em. Agree? Think I’m nuts? Let me know on Twitter @FF_Wonderkid.
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