There’s always a ton of line movement at this time of the season and Week 16 is no different. The Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans opened up as favorites, but they are both underdogs now. Cam Newton is ruled out against Atlanta, so the Falcons are favored by more than a field goal. Houston went from -3.5 favs to +1.5 underdogs after the Eagles beat the Rams last week. Week 16 has a little bit of everything, including two Super Bowl contending teams in New England and Los Angeles who are favored by two scores, while most are starting to doubt how much of a contender they really are. Can they get convincing wins? Will Aaron Rodgers win a road game? Can Big Ben keep up with Drew Brees? Week 16 can’t be as crazy as Week 15 can it? A lot of questions. Sit back and enjoy! Good luck in the fantasy football finals and with your Week 16 picks.
We’ll keep track of all my picks throughout the season, including my losses! Over time, we’ll find out if you should back me or straight up fade me. Send your complaints to @chrismeaney.
Last week:
SU: 10-6
AS: 8-8
O/U: 10-6
Season total:
SU: 143-81
AS: 121-103
O/U: 120-103
Week 16 NFL Picks
Washington @ Tennessee Titans -10 (37.5)
SU: Titans
AS: Titans
O/U: Under
10 points is a lot, especially for a low scoring team like Tennessee. The defense is solid, though, and should limit Washington to 10-14 points max. The Redskins rank 28th in scoring and the Titans have allowed the second-fewest points. Feed Derrick Henry. Most confident about Titans money line and the under.
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers -4 (42)
SU: Chargers
AS: Ravens
O/U: Under
The Chargers pulled off the sweet comeback late in Kansas City last week and the Ravens almost did the same the week before, losing to the Chiefs in overtime. The total opened up a 43.5 and I jumped on the under, but now it’s at a number I don’t feel comfortable with. Field goal game.
Atlanta Falcons -3 @ Carolina Panthers (44.5)
SU: Falcons
AS: Falcons
O/U: Under
The Panthers were 4.5 favorites up until Cam Newton was ruled out. Hopefully it doesn’t hurt your shares of Christian McCaffrey. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones is a DFS stack I’m interested in. Taylor Heinicke has five career NFL passes on the resume.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots -13.5 (44)
SU: Patriots
AS: Bills
O/U: Patriots
I don’t think the Patriots should be favored by two touchdowns against anyone right now. They’ve looked sluggish on offense and the Bills are allowing the second-fewest yards and the fewest passing yards this season. Josh Allen is QB1 over the last four weeks due to his work on the ground, which I think will continue. No Josh Gordon, will Chris Hogan be a thing now? Probably. That’s annoying.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns -10 (44)
SU: Browns
AS: Browns
O/U: Over
I liked the number a lot better on Monday when it was CLE -6.5. It’s creeped all the way up to 10, which is high for a division matchup. That said, Cincinnati has been awful on defense and Tyler Boyd will join A.J. Green on the sidelines.
Green Bay Packers -2.5 @ New York Jets (46.5)
SU: Green Bay
AS: Green Bay
O/U: Over
I’m not confident about this pick at all because Aaron Rodgers has just not been himself this season. He hasn’t thrown more than two touchdowns since Week 5 and he put up a zero last week. Robby Anderson is a solid play and you can think about Elijah McGuire as well as Jamaal Williams, who are in new roles. Rodgers and Davante Adams will do enough for the win late.
Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 (46)
SU: Eagles
AS: Eagles
O/U: Under
As bad as the secondary has been in Philly, it’s the Texans who have allowed the most passing yards in the last four weeks. They’ve also given up the third-most fantasy points to wideouts over that span. The Eagles, however, have allowed the most catches to WR’s, as well as the second-most receiving yards and fantasy points to the position. DeAndre Hopkins should have a field day, but the front four in Philly will get the job done again. In fact, the Texans front four as well keeps this game low scoring.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins -3.5 (38)
SU: Dolphins
AS: Dolphins
O/U: Under
I can’t trust the Jags to give the ball to Leonard Fournette 20 plus times in this game, or else I’d have them on the spread. They are checked out and tank mode is in full effect. The Jags are one of those teams I have went back to a lot, like last week. Can’t do it again.
Minnesota Vikings -6.5 @ Detroit Lions (42.5)
SU: Vikings
AS: Vikings
O/U: Under
Matthew Stafford has two touchdowns and three interceptions in his last four games. He hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since Week 8 and I wouldn’t count on that streak coming to an end. Adam Thielen shows up and Dalvin Cook continues to roll.
New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts -9.5 (48)
SU: Colts
AS: Colts
O/U: Under
The Giants were shutout last week and they may get shutout again this week against the Colts, who shutout the Cowboys last week. Marlon Mack > Saquon Barkley in Week 16 DFS.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys -7 (48)
SU: Cowboys
AS: Cowboys
O/U: Under
Ezekiel Elliott is my favorite play of the week as the Cowboys should bounce back at home against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper hook up again.
Chicago Bears -4.5 @ San Francisco 49ers (43)
SU: Bears
AS: 49ers
O/U: Over
The Chicago Bears are not the Seattle Seahawks, but I think this game will be closer than many think. The Bears defense is too good for them to lose, but SF competes. They hang around with teams.
Los Angles Rams -14.5 @ Arizona Cardinals (44)
SU: Rams
AS: Cardinals
O/U: Over
I know it’s the Cardinals, but I can’t pick the Rams by three scores. The offense has been out of sync due to the inability to run the football and Todd Gurley is a game-time decision. I’m not sure how much play he’ll get if he’s active. Arizona’s pass defense has been pretty decent this season, probably because most teams run on them, but still.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints -6.5 (52.5)
SU: Saints
AS: Steelers
O/U: Over
If JuJu Smith-Schuster doesn’t play, I’ll be off the Steelers on the spread. Big Ben can go toe-to-toe with Drew Brees if he needs to, but he’ll need JuJu who popped up on the injury report this week. The Saints are strong against the run, so Jaylen Samuels should see a few targets in this game, especially if Smith-Schuster is out. Looking more like I’ll take NO on the spread as we get closer to kickoff.
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 @ Seattle Seahawks (54.5)
SU: Chiefs
AS: Chiefs
O/U: Under
The number seems a bit high. I know the Chiefs are averaging a league high 35.6 points per game, but Seattle is a different beast at home. I don’t think they’ll win the football game, but they’ll keep it close. The running game of the Seahawks has me on the under. Chris Carson is another strong play this week and he’s coming off back-to-back 20 plus carry games. He also had six catches last week. Damien Williams is going to ball out again, I can feel it.
Denver Broncos -3 @ Oakland Raiders (43)
SU: Raiders
AS: Raiders
O/U: Under
I flipped a coin and it landed on heads which reminded me of the Oakland Raiders logo. Oakland has been in a lot of ball games lately, while the Broncos have looked deflated since the disappointing loss in SF. Has rookie Phillip Lindsay hit a wall? Sure looks like it. This is a matchup for him to get back on track, though.
Like these Week 16 NFL Picks? Get more Chris Meaney on his new podcast, By Any Means. Each week he’ll bring in guests from around the industry to break down all the fantasy news you need to know for your march to the championship.
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