Welcome to the Week 16 Fantasy Football FAAB Guide. This will be the final FAAB Guide of the season for me. Thank you so much for selecting me for your FAAB guidance. There are a plethora of choices and I really appreciate you including me in your weekly routine. Somehow you survived the funhouse of Week 15. Covid ravaged teams and then teams that weren’t ravaged were punished unfairly by having their game moved. Whoever wins your league this year can either say it was the most challenging title they ever won or the luckiest. You will find obvious player opinions in this piece such as Aaron Rodgers will never let you down, but I will also give you useful, less-heralded takes like Davis Mills is a top-7 dynasty QB and potential 2021 league winner. If you need Waiver Wire adds only, check out my Fantrax pal Colin McTamany’s Waiver Wire Rankings here.
More fantasy football fun for Week 16: Waiver Wire | FAAB Guide | Start & Sit | Loves & Hates | Stock Watch | Sleepers & Streamers | D/ST Streamers
Week 16 Fantasy Football FAAB Guide
$1,000 is a common budget size for season-long leagues and that is the template for my FAAB bid percentages. The Week 16 Fantasy Football FAAB Guide attempts to cover all styles of fantasy scoring, but I write this article from a redraft and PPR point of view. All roster percentages for this week come from Fantrax and ESPN fantasy football leagues.
NOTE: The NFL and the NFLPA agreed to alter the return-to-participation protocols for getting cleared from the Covid-19 list. Make sure you’re familiar with the changes so you don’t succumb to panic or fear-based transactions related to a player possibly missing his game this weekend.
QB ADDS
| PLAYER | FANTRAX ROSTER% | ESPN ROSTER% | BID RANGE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 24% | 1% | 5-8% | LAC |
| Justin Fields | 79% | 26% | 5-8% | @SEA |
| Mac Jones | 73% | 19% | 3-5% | BUF |
| Tyler Huntley | 15% | 5% | 3-5% | @CIN |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 62% | 21% | 2-4% | @TEN |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 67% | 20% | 2-4% | @KC |
| Baker Mayfield | 64% | 24% | 1-3% | @GB |
| Drew Lock | 18% | 0% | 1-3% | @LV |
| Zach Wilson | 53% | 4% | 1-3% | JAX |
Reference Points
- Davis Mills was my favorite DFS value last Sunday, but for some reason I panicked and started Tua Tagovailoa. TRUST YOUR GUT! Your gut should be a balance of your research and the research of trusted advisors. Davis Mills gets LAC at home this weekend. The Chargers have some injury issues with Joey Bosa in Covid-19 protocol as of this writing. Expect a somewhat surprising shootout Sunday. That means if you need to suddenly go with a new QB in your playoff matchup, then Mills is a solid choice.
David Mills to Brandon Cooks TD | #texans vs #Jaguars #NFL pic.twitter.com/XoFdooEjHW
— Epic Highlights (@EpicHighlights_) December 19, 2021
- As of now, Lamar Jackson may not play Sunday in Cincinnati. It’s a crucial game for the AFC North lead which means Jackson will desperately want to play. Monitor closely on Twitter if you roster Jackson. If you don’t already have Tyler Huntley on your roster, then you’re probably not reading this because you were bounced in the playoffs. Either way, both are worthy starts in the Queen City.
- The Broncos have a do or die showdown with the Raiders in Las Vegas this coming weekend. It’s a lock that they will likely have to rely on eternal disappointment Drew Lock. Teddy Bridgewater suffered a bogus concussion Sunday and is a lock not to play. There may be a part of you that is thinking Drew Lock is a lock to bust open the Denver offense. It’s a lock that Drew Lock will disappoint you. Lock it in.
RB ADDS
| PLAYER | FANTRAX ROSTER% | ESPN ROSTER% | BID RANGE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones II | 72% | 23% | 75-90% | @CAR |
| Craig Reynolds | 16% | 8% | 8-11% | @ATL |
| Duke Johnson | 17% | 1% | 7-10% | @NO |
| Jeffrey Wilson | 63% | 45% | 5-8% | @TEN |
| Jordan Howard | 32% | 8% | 5-8% | NYG |
| Ameer Abdullah | 31% | 7% | 3-5% | TB |
| Samaje Perine | 42% | 9% | 2-4% | BAL |
| DeeJay Dallas | 19% | 2% | 1-3% | CHI |
| Jeremy McNichols | 35% | 9% | 1-3% | SF |
Reference Points
- The Saints have Tampa Bay’s number in the regular season. Remember this next time they play so you can bet the farm on them. Ronald Jones II is going to benefit from that dominant performance as Leonard Fournette was injured in the loss. Jones has a tasty YPC of 4.7. When he gets the ball in his hands, he has been more than useful. I originally expected Jones to be the go-to RB in Tampa’s backfield but that was derailed by opening night against DAL. Now is the time and the matchups are ideal: @CAR, NYJ and CAR. BUY! BUY! BUY!
- My bozo Lions made a statement with their expulsion of the Cardinals from Detroit. I have to give Craig Reynolds a ton of credit. He plowed through ARI defenders and has been very reliable over the past two games starting with his 11 carries for 83 yards in Denver. This week Reynolds has ATL on the road. The Falcons can’t stop the run. This is a stellar matchup for the fantasy playoffs. Bid heavy without fear!
Craig Reynolds 27 yard run #OnePride pic.twitter.com/d1wZFMqTtZ
— Pro Football Culture (@proftblculture) December 19, 2021
- Seeing Duke Johnson set a career-high in carries while rushing for 2 TDs Sunday against the Jets was special. Seven years into his career Johnson finally had the game of his career. I rank him a little lower because the Saints are about as tough against the run as any defense in 2021. I expect Johnson gets the opportunities again, but I am dubious about his ability to repeat his performance against the Jets.
WR ADDS
| PLAYER | FANTRAX ROSTER% | ESPN ROSTER% | BID RANGE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 77% | 24% | 9-12% | @ATL |
| Gabriel Davis | 69% | 13% | 7-10% | @NE |
| Marquez Callaway | 60% | 29% | 3-5% | MIA |
| Jamison Crowder | 74% | 30% | 3-5% | JAX |
| Laquon Treadwell | 21% | 1% | 2-4% | @NYJ |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 60% | 15% | 2-4% | CLE |
| Nico Collins | 41% | 2% | 1-3% | LAC |
| Damiere Byrd | 4% | 0% | 1-3% | @SEA |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 31% | 3% | 1-3% | SF |
| Braxton Berrios | 16% | 1% | 1-3% | JAX |
| Jalen Guyton | 34% | 11% | 1-3% | @HOU |
Reference Points
- UPDATE: I’m a fool! I forgot to give replacement WRs for the Bucs now that Chris Godwin has torn his ACL and Mike Evans has a hammy. It’s time to pump up a healthy bid for Tyler Johnson! He has playoff experience already which means Brady can trust him. He can play anywhere on the field too. Scottie Miller is a possibility, but I like Johnson more for big returns fantasy wise. It’s not too late to put a fat FAAB bid on Tyler Johnson who is rostered in only 16% of the leagues on Fantrax and 1% in ESPN leagues. He is absolutely available and has an ideal schedule ROS.
- My bozo Lions are relying heavily on Amon-Ra St. Brown with 35 targets combined over the last three games. Jared Goff is in Covod-19 protocol right now, but locally the word is that he will play. I think whether Goff plays or not matters for Brown’s value this weekend. The Falcons can be had and with the way Brown is playing right now he is a must-start until further notice. He is only at 24% rostership in ESPN leagues, so you can pick up a potential WR2 for your team right now. Open up your FAAB wallets and let the money go.
- Coming into 2021, I talked a big game about Gabriel Davis. Unfortunately, Emmanuel Sanders got in the way of consistent production for Davis. That looks to be a distant memory now. Davis has 15 targets and 3 TDs during his last two games. Stefon Diggs is still the alpha in BUF, but Davis is a future #1 WR for Josh Allen. That future is starting to develop right now. Healthy FAAB bids are encouraged.
🚨🦬 Josh Allen finds Gabriel Davis on the rollout for Davis’s second touchdown of the day to seal the game
pic.twitter.com/7SMizXppP1— Marissa Myers (@Marissa_M27) December 19, 2021
- The Packers placed Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Covid-19 protocol on Tuesday. If he isn’t vaccinated he is out for Saturday. Monitor closely.
- Damiere Byrd had 5 grabs for 62 yards Monday night against the Vikings. Jakeem Grant was concussed in that game. Byrd has 15 targets over the last three games. Not an eye-popping number, but if Grant can’t go this weekend, then Byrd becomes a worthy add as the Bears head west to SEA.
TE ADDS
| PLAYER | FANTRAX ROSTER% | ESPN ROSTER% | BID RANGE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 57% | 23% | 3-5% | @SEA |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 30% | 12% | 2-4% | @DAL |
| Gerald Everett | 65% | 19% | 1-3% | CHI |
| Adam Trautman | 38% | 3% | 1-3% | MIA |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 16% | 1% | 1-3% | @NYJ |
| Foster Moreau | 25% | 17% | 1-3% | DEN |
| Josiah Deguara | 7% | 0% | 1-3% | CLE |
| Ty Conklin | 57% | 46% | 1-3% | LAR |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 21% | 1% | 1-3% | @LV |
| David Njoku | 44% | 21% | 1-3% | @GB |
Reference Points
- Justin Fields is feeding Cole Kmet consistently. The only thing missing is a TD. 49 catches on 78 targets is solid volume that you want from your TE. The lack of scoring is more of a reflection of soon-to-be-fired head coach Matt Nagy than Kmet’s inability to break the plane of the goal line. Kmet will score before the season is done. At 23% on ESPN, Kmet could likely be yours for a nominal fee.
Beautiful throw from Justin Fields to Cole Kmet for 24 yards! #DaBears pic.twitter.com/7svBL4eZGG
— Pro Football Culture (@proftblculture) December 21, 2021
- I love Ricky Seals-Jones! He is a fabulous athlete that should be scoring more fantasy points. However, like the rest of you, I should not let my personal bias interfere with my fantasy decisions. The problem for him is the current QB situation in the DMV. Taylor Heinicke didn’t play Tuesday because of Covid-19, but he also injured his knee against the Cowboys in Week 14. Kyle Allen also joined the Covid-19 crew. Garrett Gilbert wasn’t terrible against Philadelphia. He targeted Seals-Jones 7 times. Some bad breaks did Seals-Jones in Tuesday. If the QB situation is still messy, I like him regardless as less competent QBS tend to lean on their TE.
- The Saints activated Adam Trautman off the IR and he was able to suit up Sunday in Tampa. Taysom Hill scares us all away from most Saints pass catchers, but Trautman was gaining a healthy target share before he hurt his knee. He won’t be costly and he can be had in most fantasy leagues.
The Leftovers
- Week 15 still leaves us with more questions to ponder. Why was Week 15 such a horrible dumpster fire of a week for fantasy? Why doesn’t the rest of the NFL replicate what the Saints do on defense each time they play Tom Brady? Is it possible Tyler Huntley is the better QB right now for the Ravens?
- The following players with uncertain roles are all worth mentioning, just in smaller doses. Jared Goff has 9 TDs to just 2 INTs over his last four games and he has a doable schedule the rest of the way for my bozo Lions. Ke’Shawn Vaughn is very much a contender to make plays at the RB position for the Bucs and will be much cheaper than Ronald Jones II. The Chargers are heading to Houston this weekend with Austin Ekeler expected to play, but in the loss to KC last Thursday Justin Jackson was able to rumble for 86 yards on just 13 rushes. The toe of Antonio Gibson may be troublesome for him which means Jaret Patterson, the Buffalo Bull legend, is next in line to carry the load for the WFT. SEA WR Dee Eskridge didn’t maximize his opportunities Tuesday night as he was targeted 4 times without a catch in Los Angeles and now welcomes the average at best defense from Chicago this coming weekend.
| PLAYER | FANTRAX ROSTER% | ESPN ROSTER% | BID RANGE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 46% | 4% | 2% or less | @ATL |
| Devontae Booker | 65% | 25% | 2% or less | @PHI |
| Allen Lazard | 50% | 12% | 2% or less | CLE |
| Cameron Brate | 10% | 1% | 1% or less | @CAR |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 14% | 0% | 1% or less | @CAR |
| Jake Fromm | 5% | 0% | 1% or less | @PHI |
| Tim Patrick | 59% | 17% | 1% or less | @LV |
| Justin Jackson | 31% | 3% | 1% or less | @HOU |
| Robby Anderson | 80% | 45% | 1% or less | TB |
| Jaret Patterson | 22% | 1% | 1% or less | @DAL |
| K.J. Osborn | 59% | 43% | 1% or less | LAR |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 51% | 10% | 1% or less | MIA |
| C.J. Uzomah | 44% | 13% | 1% or less | BAL |
| Adam Humphries | 13% | 0% | 1% or less | @DAL |
| Tevin Coleman | 72% | 26% | 1% or less | JAX |
| Cam Newton | 52% | 27% | 1% or less | TB |
| D'Wayne Eskridge | 26% | 1% | 1% or less | CHI |
| Anthony Firkser | 26% | 3% | 1% or less | SF |
| Austin Hooper | 62% | 29% | 1% or less | @GB |
| Tyler Kroft | 6% | 0% | 1% or less | JAX |
Post Script
The Week 16 Fantasy Football FAAB Guide is here to serve you. If you have any questions related to your fantasy football FAAB selections, please DM me on Twitter @mjgovier any time. You can listen to my Fantrax podcast The Fantasy Football POV which absolutely has the most information for your buck (it’s free). New episodes come out every Thursday morning. However you absorb your preferred fantasy football content, FantraxHQ has you covered. Thanks for stopping by. Now go splurge with those FAAB bucks!
Week 16 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Kicker | D/ST | PPR | Flex
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