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Week 13 Fantasy Football: Dynasty Buys and Sells

In many leagues, the trade deadline has passed, but some dynasty leagues allow trading through the end of the regular season or beyond, so we’ll discuss a few final dynasty buys and sells before the start of the fantasy playoffs.

Here are a couple of dynasty buys and sells to target in your leagues, but keep in mind the other team’s current situation when initiating trade talks. All the first-round rookie picks in the world won’t help you acquire Derrick Henry if the other dynasty GM is contending for a title, and don’t attempt to sell veteran contributors like Julio Jones to teams clearly in a rebuild and not in position to vie for a championship this year.

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Week 13 Dynasty Buys

Ezekiel Elliott

The rest of the dynasty buys and sells in this week’s article focus on actionable advice about players who could help or hurt contending dynasty teams in the fantasy playoffs from Weeks 14 to 16. However, that’s not the case with Ezekiel Elliott, the first player we’re going to discuss here. Contenders should not be looking to acquire Elliott given the current state of the Cowboys’ offense. Instead, he’s a buy-low candidate for rebuilding teams.

In the first five games, Elliott was the no. 3 fantasy running back in PPR formats behind only Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook. Following Dak Prescott‘s season-ending ankle injury against the Giants, Elliott has been disappointing, coming in as just the no. 24 running back from Week 6 to Week 12. Some of Elliott’s struggles are due to having played with a combination of Andy DaltonGarrett Gilbert, and Ben DiNucci under center for the better half of the year. Another substantial factor is the devastating injuries to the Cowboys’ offensive line. They’ve shifted the linemen around due to various injuries all season long, and on Thanksgiving, Dallas lost both their starting left tackle and right tackle on the first drive of the game.

Many likely watched the nationally-televised Thanksgiving game against Washington in which Elliott produced a miserable 32 rushing yards plus a lost fumble and added just one catch for seven yards as a receiver. Players generally experience enormous spikes and huge plunges in dynasty value based on a great or awful performance in a primetime game. Elliott is no different, with many failing to realize or fully take into account the mitigating factors.

It’s unwarranted to expect Elliott to overcome the loss of their starting quarterback and numerous injuries to the offensive line in a lost 2020 season. His dynasty value is deeply discounted compared to what it was just a month or two ago. An astound 37 percent of the respondents to this Twitter poll valued Elliott as a mid first-round pick or less, and only 22 percent considered him worth multiple first-round picks. The offensive line should return to health next season, and it sounds like the Cowboys plan on re-signing Prescott. Both factors bode well for Elliott’s value to rebound, and while there is risk in Prescott leaving, there has never been a better time to acquire a 25 year-old workhorse running back on the cheap.


Myles Gaskin

Out of sight, out of mind is a common occurrence in dynasty formats. Myles Gaskin has missed the last four games with an MCL sprain, but he’s close to a return, possibly even this week against the Bengals. Contending dynasty teams should look to acquire him now for relatively cheap prices before his return.

Teams that have held onto Gaskins could be concerned with more of a committee backfield in Miami once he’s back. After all, DeAndre Washington, Matt Breida, and Patrick Laird split the snaps in last week’s win over the Jets with none of the three playing more than 50 percent of the offensive snaps. However, prior to that, Gaskin averaged 70 percent of the offensive snaps when healthy, and in his two starts filling in for Gaskin prior to suffering a shoulder injury, Salvon Ahmed averaged 71 percent of the snaps on offense.

It seems as though Brian Flores prefers a workhorse running back so long as there’s one he trusts. None of the Dolphins’ running backs have shown enough to demand snaps once Gaskin returns. With his projected workload, Gaskin figures to return to a volume-based RB2 status in fantasy for the stretch run. And with an advantageous matchup in Week 16 against a Raiders’ defense that allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, he could be a key piece to a championship run. Gaskin could likely be acquired for an early second-round rookie pick, possibly even less, in many leagues. Contenders in need to help at running back or flex should definitely send some trade offers for him this week.


Week 12 Dynasty Buys Revisited:

Taysom Hill and James White were the Week 12 dynasty buys recommended. Hill struggled to produce much as a passer against a stiff Denver secondary, but he now has back-to-back outings with two rushing touchdowns. As mentioned last week, any starting quarterback with Hill’s weekly rushing floor and ceiling is worth a first-round rookie pick in superflex and 2QB formats. At the price of a second or lower, he’s a bargain dynasty buy.

As for White, he promptly scored two touchdowns against Arizona with Rex Burkhead out of the lineup. White’s flex production for the rest of the season with added upside in PPR makes him a cheap addition for contending dynasty teams looking to make a playoff push and in need of help at the running back position.




Week 13 Dynasty Sells

Alvin Kamara

Like I mentioned with Joe Burrow last week, Alvin Kamara is certainly not a must-sell. Dynasty GMs entering the fantasy playoffs with Kamara don’t need to panic, but nor should they fool themselves. With Taysom Hill under center, Kamara is more of a touchdown-dependent RB2 for the stretch run than the elite top-five running back he was with Drew Brees.

It’s only been a small two-game sample size, and it’s worth noting that the Saints have played with a lead for the majority of these games, but Kamara’s snap percentage and target volume (or lack thereof) are apparent. Again, game script factors in with New Orleans running out clock for much of these matchups against Atlanta and Denver, but Latavius Murray seems to fit the revised offensive scheme with Hill a little better. Kamara has averaged just 49 percent of the offensive snaps the last two weeks, and he’s caught just one pass for negative two yards on three targets.

In contrast, Kamara had been averaging 7.4 receptions on 8.9 targets per game with Brees. With Kamara’s weekly PPR floor and ceiling greatly diminished by Hill’s tendency to throw deep or scramble rather than to constantly check the ball down, contending dynasty teams should consider moving him for other running back options with better outlooks for the fantasy playoffs.

Pivot options include Christian McCaffrey, who should be back to full strength for the fantasy playoffs, and Derrick Henry, who has superb rushing matchups from Weeks 14 through 16. It could be worth an overpay of Kamara plus a second-round rookie pick or even a first-round pick for one of these elite options. It might also be worthwhile to explore selling Kamara for Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, or Nick Chubb. All three have better projected workloads and matchups for the fantasy playoffs. In some cases, you may even be able to get a pick or player on top of these running backs for Kamara. And long-term, with Brees maybe retiring after this year, Kamara’s peak dynasty value could already be behind him.


D.K. Metcalf

Before you express outrage, hear me out. Given what we’ve seen from D.K. Metcalf thus far in his age-22 season, he undoubtedly has the potential to eventually be a future Hall-of-Famer in the likeness of Calvin Johnson. Metcalf is widely considered a top-five dynasty wide receiver, and there’s even an argument for him to be the top dynasty wide receiver right now. I’m not hating on him at all, but contending dynasty teams should be aware of Metcalf’s Week 16 matchup against the Rams.

In Seattle’s Week 10 loss to Los Angeles, Jalen Ramsey covered Metcalf for the majority of the game, and he didn’t allow a single catch to Metcalf on two targets. Metcalf’s two receptions for 28 yards came during the few snaps where he didn’t face off against Ramsey. Now, that doesn’t mean that the Seahawks won’t adjust and find ways to move Metcalf around to escape Ramsey in their Week 16 rematch. There’s also the possibility that Metcalf will be able to haul in some catches or even a long touchdown in spite of near-perfect coverage from Ramsey. But the odds aren’t great, with the Rams having allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers all year.

Contending dynasty teams with Metcalf should consider flipping him for Tyreek Hill or Davante Adams. Here’s why: following their sole loss to the Raiders, the Chiefs have embraced their identity as a passing offense. With a 70.8 percent passing rate on neutral situation dropbacks since Week 7, they’re placing their title hopes once again in the hands of MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes. And in Week 16, Hill will face an atrocious Falcons secondary that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year. Adams also has an advantageous Week 16 matchup against the Titans, whose secondary has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

In some cases, you’ll need to add a small piece to Metcalf. In other cases, you might be able to get a pick or player on top of Adams or Hill in return. For a relatively lateral move at wide receiver, albeit losing some youth given the four or five-year age gap between Metcalf and the others, contenders could have a better much shot at a fantasy championship this year. It’s a risk-reward deal. If you lose even with Adams or Hill, that’ll hurt, and it would especially sting if Metcalf ends up outscoring either in Week 16. Still, it’s a risk worth considering, as winning championships should be prioritized over winning trades.


Week 12 Dynasty Sells Revisited:

Joe Burrow and Marvin Jones Jr. were the Week 12 dynasty sells recommended. As emphasized, Burrow is by no means a must-sell, and dynasty GMs should not panic sell for well-below market value. That said, Burrow’s knee injury could hold him out for much of the 2021 season as well, so it could be prudent to sell given the injury risk.

As for Jones, he failed to produce much even in a good matchup against a struggling Houston secondary on Thanksgiving. We’ll see when Kenny Golladay is expected to return from his hip injury, but hopefully teams out of contention were able to move Jones following a few weeks of WR2 production during Golladay’s absence.


Like Meng’s Week 13 Dynasty Buys and Sells? Check out the rest of our Week 13 Fantasy Football lineup!

For more fantasy football content, follow me on Twitter @FFA_Meng. Also, check back for more, as we’ll be covering the dynasty football angle all year round.

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