So after going 33-8 in my straight up picks from Week 8-10, I cooled off with an 8-6 record last week, but I’m ready to bounce back with my Week 11 NFL picks. Once again, I got the Titans wrong. They easily handled the New England Patriots and have looked good in two straight weeks. I’m on them this week, so you should likely be on the Colts! No joke, this team has given me fits all season long. There are a couple real enticing games this week, including the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings which takes place Sunday night. Also, the highest total of the season at 63.5 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. This is the fourth time in NFL history where two teams – who have one or zero losses – are facing off this late in the season. Enjoy, it should be a beauty! Good luck to all making Week 11 NFL picks.
We’ll keep track of all my picks throughout the season, including my losses! Over time, we’ll find out if you should back me or straight up fade me. Send your complaints to @chrismeaney.
Week 11 NFL Picks
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks -3 (49)
This is a tough game for me to call. Seattle has been much better than anticipated, both on defense and on the ground as they are averaging the most rushing yards per game. Normally, I would lean with the home team in a coin flip, but Aaron Rodgers tends to win games where he must and he must this week. As Peter Schrager points out below, Rodgers has been very dominate from Week 11-17.
It’s November 15th. Do you know what that means?
— GMFB (@gmfb) November 15, 2018
Carolina Panthers -4.5 @ Detroit Lions (49.5)
The Carolina Panthers were put in their place last week, but I expect them to bounce back this week. The Detroit Lions’ defense ranks 29th overall, 31st against the pass and 25th against the run. This speedy offense should take off in an indoor environment.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens – 6 (44.5)
The Baltimore Ravens opened up as 4.5 favorites, but the line and total are unavailable due to the fact Joe Flacco could miss this game. We could see Lamar Jackson or even Robert Griffin in this game. Either way, I’ll be on the Ravens.
I’m looking forward to seeing Lamar Jackson, but not sold he’ll beat a division rival by a touchdown. Expecting a lot of Alex Collins and a grind. Ravens defense, though.
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons -3 (48.5)
Dallas was impressive last week, but I’ll lean with Matt Ryan and the home team here. He’s averaging 360 passing yards per game with a 14:1 TD:INT ratio in ATL, compared to 304 passing yards per game on the road with a 7:2 TD:INT ratio.
Houston Texans -3 @ Washington Redskins (42.5)
Both teams have played to the under basically all season long, as Washington can’t score and the Texans defense has been solid. The Redskins have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game and the Texans have allowed the seventh-fewest. No o-line in Washington, however.
Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (46.5)
This is a rematch of last year’s playoff game which had the Jaguars going in to PIT and completely having their way with the Steelers. Oh, how times have changed. Jacksonville has lost five in a row, while the Steelers have won five straight.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants -1.5 (52)
The Giants have had their fair share of issues, but the Buccaneers have been far worse on defense. Football Outsiders has them ranked 31st overall, and 30th against the pass. They have allowed the most points per game and the most passing touchdowns. They rank inside the top 10 in fantasy points against to each position.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts -1 (49)
The Titans have looked so good of late, that I have to pick them this weekend. It’s a very tough matchup on the road against a division rival. Both of these teams play each other tight and Tennessee won both games last year, but Andrew Luck was on the sidelines. I’m leaning Tennessee because they have the better defense which has resulted in them allowing the fewest points per game. Keep in mind, I’m always on the wrong side of the Titans and Andrew Luck has never lost to them.
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers -7 (40.5)
Finally, a ‘home’ game for the Los Angeles Chargers. Their first since Week 5. The Chargers have won six straight games and have allowed fewer than 20 points in five straight games. Now they get back Joey Bosa.
Oakland Raiders @ Arizona Cardinal -5.5 (40.5)
The Arizona Cardinals have been decent on defense this season and held the Kansas City Chiefs in check last week. They should have no problem with Derek Carr who has zero touchdowns in three of his past four games. On the flip side, Arizona’s two best players in David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald have looked much better since the OC change.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans -9 (56)
It’s hard not to roll with the Saints in a blowout as they are the hottest team in the league, and arguable the best in football. The Philadelphia Eagles have no run game and will be without Ronald Darby and likely Jalen Mills.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears -2 (44.5)
I thought long and hard about a Minnesota Vikings upset here, but it really wouldn’t be considered much of an upset if it happened. Kirk Cousins has been sacked a ton this season and the Bears defense is just as good, if not better than the Vikings. They can get after the QB with the best of them. I’m leaning with the home team here, but this is a true test for Mitch Trusbisky.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (63.5)
The Rams opened up at 2.5 favorites and are now favored by 3.5. I wonder if it has anything to do with the game moving from Mexico to Los Angeles. Nonetheless, I like the Rams as I think they are the more complete football team and I like the over. It’s a lot of points – the most of the season – but I haven’t seen these two teams get slowed down on offense, yet. They rank second and third in the league and I expect the Chiefs to keep it close.
Like these Week 11 NFL Picks? Get more Chris Meaney on his new podcast, By Any Means. Each week he’ll bring in guests from around the industry to break down all the fantasy news you need to know for your march to the championship.
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