Welcome to my Week 10 Flex rankings! Below you will see nearly 300 players ranked based on half-PPR scoring. We have four teams on a bye this week. All four are in the AFC and all have winning records. I may have mentioned that just to highlight the fact that my fighting New York Jets have a winning record in November for the first time in what feels like forever. Anyway, back to fantasy. Joe Mixon will get a well-deserved rest after his five-touchdown performance nearly broke last week’s slate. Rhamondre Stevenson and Michael Carter are also off this week, which could impact running back depth for many fantasy managers. Cincinnati’s trio of wideouts leads the pack among players who are off this week. Garrett Wilson, Jakobi Meyers, and Devin Duvernay (yes, really) are among the potential Flex options at wide receiver who are off during Week 10.
Running Back Notes
Jonathan Taylor returned to a limited practice on Wednesday. That is good news for fantasy managers, but Indianapolis has not yet announced whether Taylor will suit up on Sunday. Even if he does, the circumstances surrounding the team have changed quite a bit in recent weeks. They have benched quarterback Matt Ryan in place of Sam Ehlinger and have fired former head coach Frank Reich. The Colts appear to be in tank mode, which could affect Taylor’s reps, especially when he is dealing with an injury. I still expect him to be a solid fantasy starter, but he is no longer a top-five fantasy running back. He has only played in five of the Colts’ last eight games and has not scored or surpassed 100 scrimmage yards in any of those contests. I have Taylor ranked as my RB15 for Week 10.
Taylor is not the only high fantasy pick whose value seems to be a bit lower these days than we had previously anticipated. The winds of change could be circling a bit in Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Leonard Fournette enters Week 10 as the overall RB9 on the year, but that ranking comes with a bit of a caveat. First, the Buccaneers have yet to have their bye week. Though Fournette is ninth in total scoring among running backs, he is just 17th in fantasy points per game. Fournette has also benefited greatly from his usage in the passing game. He ranks third in receptions among running backs behind Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey. But Fournette has struggled mightily as a rusher this season. His 3.3 yards per carry average is tied for the lowest among the top 50 players in rushing yards on the year.
The good news for Fournette is that his primary competition, Rachaad White, has not fared a whole lot better. In fact, he may even be worse. Cue the Spidermans pointing at each other meme:
|Yards per Carry||3.3||3.1|
|PFF Rush Grade||65.3||61.5|
|Missed Tackles per Carry||0.09||0.08|
|Yards After Contact per Carry||2.2||2.2|
|Yards per Reception||7.5||6.8|
|PFF Receiving Grade||71.5||71.6|
|Yards per Route Run||1.22||1.23|
Fournette played on at least 76 percent of snaps in each of Tampa Bay’s first three games. But he has hit that mark just once since. Opponents have also held Fournette below 25 rushing yards in each of his last three contests. I still think his workload is relatively safe this week, and I am starting him where I have him. However, I would be lying if I said I was not a bit nervous about his long-term production, especially considering Tampa Bay’s offensive struggles and their upcoming bye week. If Fournette fails to produce on Sunday, I would not be surprised to see the Buccaneers give White more work coming out of the bye.
Harris is tied with Fournette with a 3.3 yards per carry average and has exhibited some worrisome traits that have elicited whispers of Trent Richardson and other former fantasy busts. His 62.8 rushing grade is 47th among 60 qualified running backs. Sure, Pittsburgh’s offense has been a bit underwhelming in general this season. Unlike White, however, Jaylen Warren has excelled when called upon to complement Harris. Warren has averaged 5.3 yards per carry in limited action this season. In addition, he has more 10-plus yard plays (13) than Harris (12) despite Harris having 91 more touches. Warren’s production has not gone unnoticed by Pittsburgh’s coaching staff. Reports suggest that Warren should be in for more work going forward, as Pittsburgh is looking for a jolt after last week’s bye week.
I currently have Harris ranked as my RB21, and he is a top-50 Week 10 Flex option for me. Having said that, I find myself actively trying to find a replacement for him in my starting lineups. I am not quite willing to project Warren to outproduce Harris this week just yet. Warren is an RB3 for me given his expected uptick in workload. I would not go out of my way to start Warren as a Flex, but it may depend on your other options. Either way, this game could go a long way toward how Pittsburgh will utilize both backs going forward. New Orleans is in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy production allowed to running backs, so the matchup itself is neither one to target nor avoid.
Cordarrelle Patterson returned last week following a four-week absence and scored twice in Atlanta’s loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. It was a boon for fantasy managers, particularly after head coach Arthur Smith said he would ease Patterson back into the fold. Patterson is in a great spot this week against a Carolina Panthers defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. There should also be inclement weather in this game, which could lead to more rushing opportunities. As if anyone needed to twist Smith’s arm to get him to run the ball more. The only thing preventing me from ranking Patterson higher this week is the quick turnaround. I’m not quite sure Atlanta wants to overexpose Patterson to too many hits after his recent return. I am still starting him where I have him, but I do have him outside my top 15.
Wide Receiver Notes
Consider this your weekly Keenan Allen update. The Chargers’ star receiver missed last week’s game after re-aggravating his hamstring injury during the team’s recent bye week. Head coach Brandon Staley deemed Allen day-to-day on Wednesday, but Allen has yet to practice this week. I sort of hedged with where I ranked him, as I currently have him at WR44. Even if Allen does play, I would not rank him as high as I normally would under normal conditions. Allen feels like a dicey bet to make it through a full 60 minutes of game action. He would probably be a low-end WR3/Flex play if he is active. With Allen and Mike Williams both out last week, Josh Palmer (8-106) and DeAndre Carter (5-53) stepped up admirably. I would expect them to continue that trend this week against San Francisco.
I try not to overreact too much to weather conditions, but I do want to point something out regarding Thursday night’s game between Atlanta and Carolina. As I write this, there is rain expected throughout the game, with 10-15 MPH winds. Those are not exactly ideal passing conditions. We all know that Atlanta does not need to be reminded to run the ball whenever possible. They rank third in the NFL in rushing attempts per game. Carolina’s rush defense is among the worst in the league, which plays right into what Atlanta likes to do offensively. And before Carolina got bludgeoned 35-0 in the first half last week in Cincinnati, they had rushed the ball 63 times in their previous two games. Why am I mentioning all of this?
Well, because I currently have Terrace Marshall as my WR36 and Drake London as my WR39. This is right in the range where both are potential Week 10 Flex plays, given a 12-team league with three starting wide receiver slots. However, given the potential weather conditions and neither team exhibiting a ton of confidence in their passing games, I would not consider either wideout a must-start in this game. If weather conditions worsen throughout the day, it might be a good excuse to bench either or both for an option with more upside. Marshall is the safer bet of the two to provide Flex value this week. He has 15 targets over the last two weeks, and Atlanta has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. London, meanwhile, has yet to score or reach 50 yards in a game since Week 3.
Tight End Notes
Cole Kmet and Cade Otton exceeded expectations last week, with both finishing among the top four fantasy tight ends. I do not consider either player a must-start as a Week 10 Flex, but there is reason for optimism this week. Kmet will face the Detroit Lions, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. Despite their solid overall performance on defense last week, I am not yet ready to declare that they suddenly figured everything out on that end of the field. With Justin Fields seemingly tapping into his potential and newly acquired Chase Claypool keeping defenses honest, Kmet could be a beneficiary in Chicago’s offense. Otton also gets a great matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle has allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends, including a whopping 15.2 yards per catch.
Week 10 Flex Rankings for Fantasy Football
|15||Kenneth Walker III||SEA||RB9||@TB|
|21||Amon-Ra St. Brown||DET||WR9||@CHI|
|68||Terrace Marshall Jr.||CAR||WR36||ATL|
|76||Allen Robinson II||LAR||WR40||ARI|
|89||Jeffery Wilson Jr.||MIA||RB32||CLE|
|104||Melvin Gordon III||DEN||RB37||@TEN|
|114||Robert Tonyan Jr.||GB||TE15||DAL|
|166||Steven Sims Jr.||PIT||WR85||NO|
|172||Equanimeous St. Brown||CHI||WR87||DET|