Among the many games that people play during NFL season is the Survivor pool. It is a tried and true crowd favorite because the casual fan can participate and compete with us diehards. The object of a survivor pool is simply to pick an NFL team to win each week. The only rule is that you cannot pick the same team twice.
If you read my introductory piece last week which included my strategies and tips to help you last in a survivor pool, you probably have a pretty good idea of the Week 1 games that stand out to me. But for posterity’s sake, here are my Week 1 Survivor Pool Rankings.
Week 1 Survivor Pool Rankings
Best Bet: Detroit Lions v. New York Jets
While I want to believe in my heart that Monday night will mark the first of 380 consecutive victories (regular and postseason) for my newly adopted son Sam Darnold, I must at least consider the possibility that things don’t pan out that way. After all, Darnold begins his career in a Monday night in front of a raucous crowd at Ford Field to take on a very capable Lions squad. It’s fair to wonder if it might be a bit much for the 21-year-old to overcome right away. I guess I will have to settle for 379-1.
Next Best Thing: Baltimore Ravens v. Buffalo Bills
This game pretty much checks all the proverbial boxes for me. Baltimore is at home and they are the third-largest favorite of the week. Buffalo is a bad team and will be led by Nathan Peterman, who is making his third career NFL start. In his other two starts, he has combined to throw for 123 yards, one touchdown, and five interceptions.
There is a reason that Baltimore is not my Best Bet, however. Last year, my Survivor Pool team was eliminated in Week 6 when the 1-4 Chicago Bears traveled to Baltimore led by Mitchell Trubisky (making his second career NFL start) and defeated Baltimore in overtime. This game has an eerily similar feel, so I suppose it is possible that Buffalo pulls off the upset. However, I am very confident the Ravens win this one going away.
Best of the Rest
New Orleans Saints v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a divisional game, which I try to avoid if possible. But New Orleans is the biggest favorite on the board this weekend, and with good reason. Starting quarterback Jameis Winston’s season-opening three-game suspension means that Tampa Bay will be led by Ryan Fitzpatrick. The veteran will not be fazed by the atmosphere, but I just cannot trust him to beat an 11-win team on the road. Give me the Saints at home.
Minnesota Vikings v. San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo is undefeated as a starting quarterback in his NFL career, and now has a full offseason to master Kyle Shanahan’s offense prior to Week 1. But Minnesota will present a unique challenge for the man knows as Jimmy GQ. Minnesota has an elite defense and will be amped to prove that last season’s 13-3 record was no fluke. The Vikings opened the vault for their own franchise quarterback, Kirk Cousins. Cousins and company should be able to put up points in this matchup. If San Francisco falls behind early, it could render them one-dimensional. This would be a particularly daunting outcome, especially given the recent loss of former Viking Jerick McKinnon. I think the Kirk Cousins era in Minnesota begins with a victory against the 49ers on Sunday.
Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears
Aaron Rodgers is back and signed to a new contract, and Green Bay is favored by 7.5 points in this game. However, I have a feeling Chicago keeps this one closer than most people think. New Bears’ head coach Matt Nagy will want to make a statement, and Sunday night in Lambeau Field would be an opportune time to do so. Expecting Chicago to pull off the outright victory seems a bit much, but stranger things have happened in the NFL’s longest rivalry. I believe the Packers win the game, but there are safer survivor pool picks on the Week 1 slate.
New England Patriots v. Houston Texans
Many 2017 Survivor Pool entries were done in an Opening Night when the Patriots lost at home against an AFC team with a potent offense. This may give survivor pool entrants pause, but I do not see a repeat occurring on Sunday. Still, the fear is enough to knock the mighty Pats down a notch in my estimation. New England narrowly escaped a Week 3 tilt against Houston last season, winning 36-33. I can see this contest being a close, high-scoring affair as well. I think New England emerges victorious, but players would probably be best served waiting for a better spot.
Favorites I Expect To Win
Denver Broncos v. Seattle Seahawks
Now that Denver once again has a competent quarterback, I expect them to work their way back into contention in the AFC West. Seattle has turned over their roster quite a bit this offseason. I expect them to face some early growing pains before figuring it all out.
Carolina Panthers v. Dallas Cowboys
Carolina added some offensive weapons this offseason and Panthers’ fans are having dreams of 2015. They won’t be that prolific, of course, but I expect them to start the year with a win and top the visiting Cowboys.
Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders
If you believe the reaction on Twitter, Jon Gruden will be on the sidelines on Monday night in Week 1 and back in the booth the Monday after that. I kid, of course, but Gruden’s moves have left many scratching their heads. I don’t think he or the Raiders are completely hopeless, but I also do not expect them to pull out a Week 1 win. The Rams have too much talent on both sides of the ball for Oakland to contend with.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Tennessee made it to the Divisional Round in last year’s playoffs but are still going somewhat under the radar. They have made some nice moves in the offseason and I expect them to be a potent offense. Despite the return of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, Miami is still a team in flux. I believe Tennessee will pick up the victory.
Indianapolis Colts v. Cincinnati Bengals
The much-anticipated return of Andrew Luck has Indianapolis feeling a sense of cautious optimism. They host the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 as they begin their journey back towards playoff contention. I think they earn a win at home, but I wouldn’t put anything of consequence on it.
Los Angeles Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs
This should be an exciting Week 1 contest. The Chargers will look to avoid their usual early-season slow start when they host the Chiefs. I expect the Chargers to pull out a hard-fought victory, but there is no reason to waste a survivor pool pick here.
It’s a Trap!
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh won thirteen more games than Cleveland last season, and yet I have zero confidence they will win Sunday’s matchup. The Le’veon Bell holdout seems to have caused a bit of a divide in the locker room, which is a worrisome development. Cleveland has upgraded their roster on both offense and defense and will be treating this game like their Super Bowl. I think either Cleveland wins this game outright, or Pittsburgh wins by at least two touchdowns. There is no middle ground.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants
Jacksonville made it to the AFC Championship Game last year while the Giants had the second-worst record in the sport. Still, the Giants should be much improved and will be up for this game. At the end of the day, do you really want to use a survivor pool pick backing Blake Bortles on the road? I didn’t think so.
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles begin defense of their Super Bowl crown Thursday night when they host the Atlanta Falcons in a playoff rematch. Nick Foles will be behind center as Carson Wentz continues his rehab. I get the sense that there may be a slight hangover of sorts once the pregame festivities are done and the game begins. For me, this is a game to avoid.
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals
Veterans Alex Smith and Sam Bradford lead their new teams into this Week 1 tilt in the desert. I don’t know if either of these teams will be any good, but I see no reason to pick either of these teams in a survivor pool unless you buy into some weird Adrian Peterson revenge narrative. Pass.
Ready to amp up your Fantasy Football prep even more? Check out The Fantasy Black Book Show, where Joe Pisapia, Scott Bogman, and The Welsh bring the goods every week.