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Trust the Propcess: Week 8 NFL Player Props

I have gone through all of this week’s NFL matchups and found my three favorite Week 8 player props for your viewing pleasure. All three players play for teams who are projected by Vegas to win their Week 8 games and score at least 24 points in the process. While that does not guarantee success, I feel very good about these selections. As always, please tail accordingly and note that yardage lines and prices can move quickly as circumstances change.

Week 8 NFL Player Props

Tony Pollard OVER 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110, Bet365)

I feel like I say this every week, but it continues to be relevant – you must price shop whenever possible. See this Tony Pollard player prop as a prime example. If you go on FanDuel, you will see this number at 79.5. It is 80.5 on PointsBet. That is nearly a 10 percent difference in the yardage threshold Pollard needs to reach to cash this prop. He can certainly get there (as I will explain momentarily) but why make life more difficult for yourself? Find the lowest yardage number and react accordingly. You can also find Pollard’s rushing number at 73.5 on other sites, but you will have to pay more to win back your desired amount. Now that my soliloquy is complete, here is why I am all in on Tony Pollard this week.

First and foremost, Ezekiel Elliott will miss this game due to a sprained MCL. Though Elliott has been hampered by nagging injuries in recent years, he usually guts it through when he can. Elliott has played in 95 of 104 regular-season games as a Cowboy, including 55-of-56 since Dallas drafted Pollard in 2019. They have been able to coexist, with Pollard often looking like the more explosive back. But Pollard has rarely (if ever) been afforded a starter’s workload. Pollard has never carried the ball 15 times in a game in his four NFL seasons. To his credit, he has gone over this week’s number of 73.5 rushing yards eight times in his career, including three times already this season. No other Cowboys’ running back has earned a carry this season. I would not be surprised to see Pollard approach 20 rushes in this game.

This week’s matchup is also favorable for Pollard. Dallas ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in both run grade and rushing success rate. Chicago’s run defense is in the bottom 10 in both categories. Advantage: Pollard. The game script can also be a factor in favor of a big game from Pollard this week. The Bears come in on a short week as 9.5-point underdogs. Dallas should be able to keep Chicago’s nonexistent pass offense at bay with their superior pass rush and ability to make plays in the secondary. Considering the likelihood of Pollard achieving a new career-high in carries in what figures to be an excellent matchup and game script, I am expecting Pollard to respond in kind with a big day on the ground.

Jaylen Waddle Longest Reception OVER 22.5 Yards (-113, Caesar’s)

Here are the stat lines for Miami’s top two wide receivers to this point in the season. Can you tell me which one is Tyreek Hill and which is Jaylen Waddle?

Receiver A: 63 percent catch rate, 18.3 yards per reception, 32.4 percent big play rate (reception of 20-plus yards)
Receiver B: 73.1 percent catch rate, 13.6 yards per reception, 21.1 percent big play rate

Given their career numbers, you would probably surmise that Receiver A is Hill and Receiver B is Waddle. You would be incorrect.

Hill and Waddle both rank in the top five among all NFL wide receivers in big plays and yards per route run. They have nearly identical aDOT (average depth of target) metrics. And, as mentioned above, Waddle outpaces Hill by nearly five yards per catch. Yet Waddle’s long reception threshold is 22.5 yards, whereas Hill’s is 26.5. I believe the books are putting too much stock in their respective pasts and not enough in what both players are doing in Miami’s offense. Waddle has surpassed his line in all four games in which Tua Tagovailoa has played most of the snaps. Hill has exceeded his number in just one of those four games. None of this is to say that Hill cannot or will not surpass any of his yardage props on Sunday. There should be plenty of opportunities for both receivers to thrive in this matchup.

Both players line up all over the offensive formation, so there is no distinct advantage from an individual matchup standpoint. Amani Oruwariye is generally considered the weak link by his 28.6 PFF grade (worst among 105 qualified cornerbacks) and 1.70 yards per route ran allowed. But he and Jeffrey Okudah switch sides quite a bit. It is just as likely that Waddle squares off against Oruwariye than Hill. It is also very possible for either to beat Okudah (1.35 yards per route covered) or slot corner AJ Parker (2.33 yards per route covered) for a big play as opposed to Oruwariye. All told, I expect both Dolphins receivers to make an impact on Sunday. I just happen to think that Waddle is the better value this week for this particular prop given the number itself and the price.

Kenneth Walker Long Rush OVER 17.5 Yards (-115, Bet365)

Even before Kenneth Walker put Seattle’s Week 7 win on ice with a 74-yard touchdown jaunt, he had surpassed his longest rush prop against an overmatched Chargers defense. That is quickly becoming the norm for the talented rookie out of Michigan State. Walker has been a big play waiting to happen this season. He has gone over this number in four of six games despite having eight or fewer carries four times. Walker is tied for third in the NFL with five rushes of at least 20 yards. He has done this despite only carrying the ball 67 times during the year. For reference, the two players ahead of him in big plays (Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley) have 126 and 143 carries, respectively. This week, Seattle’s newest offensive weapon gets another exploitable matchup against Barkley’s team, the New York Giants.

Seattle has been one of the surprises of the season, and their offensive line is a huge reason why. The Seahawks O-line has created an average of 1.71 yards before contact per carry this year. That number ranks third in the entire NFL. Before Walker took over, Rashaad Penny was also thriving in this offense. He also had five carries of at least 20 yards before going down for the season with a broken fibula. Walker has impressive physical tools in addition to a solid offensive line in front of him. He possesses a 98th-percentile 40-time and a 96th-percentile speed score. He has also already forced 25 missed tackles this season. That combination makes him a threat for a big play every time he touches the football.

Conversely, New York’s defense has allowed 1.76 yards per carry before contact this year. That number is the highest in the league. The Giants have allowed 5.74 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. Only the Chargers (thanks in part to Walker’s contributions a week ago) have ceded a higher mark. New York has allowed 16.5 percent of their runs against them to go for at least 10 yards. That is the second-highest rate in the league, trailing only the Houston Texans. Six running backs have had a long run of 18 yards or more against the Giants already this season. That includes Kenyan Drake and Travis Etienne, who combined for 233 rushing yards on just 24 carries (9.71 yards per rush) over the last two weeks. Considering Walker’s early success and a plus-matchup, this is one of my favorite Week 8 NFL player props.

Also make sure to check out our Week 8 Rankings for your regular fantasy football leagues: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex Rankings

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