The Home of Fantasy Sports Analysis

Trust the Propcess: Week 5 NFL Player Props

Week 5 got off to an inauspicious start with Thursday night’s clunker featuring Indianapolis and Denver. Hopefully, it’s all uphill from here. The good news is that even the games that disappoint us aesthetically can have player props we like. This week is no different. Here are a few of my favorite Week 5 player props.

Week 5 NFL Player Props

Saquon Barkley Longest Rush OVER 14.5 Yards (-120, BetMGM)

If we are getting up four hours early to watch this game, we might as well have action on it, right? In all seriousness, this is legitimately one of my favorite Week 5 player props. The 2022 version of Saquon Barkley looks like the phenom we saw when he first entered the NFL in 2018. Barkley leads the NFL in rushing through the first four weeks of the season. He has also surpassed this longest rush prop in all four games this year. I expect him to continue this trend on Sunday against the Green Bay Packers.

No one has ever questioned Barkley’s physical talents. Barkley has averaged over 100 yards from scrimmage per game during his five career seasons. This year, that number stands at a whopping 142.5 total yards per game. While Barkley possesses elite skills, the Giants’ offensive line must be given credit for some of his success so far. Left tackle Andrew Thomas has earned Pro Football Focus’ top rush blocking grade among all NFL offensive tackles so far this season. Thomas leads an offensive line that has created an average of 1.54 yards per rush before contact. That number is the third-highest rate in the NFL. This should play in their favor in their matchup with the Packers.

Green Bay has ceded 1.59 yards per carry before contact this year. That is the fourth-highest rate in the league. They have allowed a run of 15 yards or higher to four different running backs already this season. Damien Harris had a long run of 14 yards last week versus Green Bay, otherwise, that number would be five backs. Green Bay also gave up a 15-yard run on a reverse by wide receiver Kendrick Bourne in that game. I highly doubt that Saquon Barkley will be running any reverses on Sunday, but it highlights Green Bay’s susceptibility to misdirection plays on the ground. Barkley has long had success on outside runs throughout his career, and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday.

Tyreek Hill Longest Reception OVER 23.5 Yards (-120, DraftKings)

As a Jets fan, it pains me to take this prop, especially considering Hill essentially chose to spurn my team by choosing the Dolphins over the Jets in the offseason. However, I do think Hill is likely to make a splash play in this game. I also think this line would be higher if Tua Tagovailoa were taking snaps for the Dolphins this week. So I believe this is a bit of a buying opportunity. We know Teddy Bridgewater does not exactly air it out downfield very often. But I do think his reputation is a bit overblown in that department. Bridgewater ranked 20th in deep ball attempts last year and 17th in 2020, per Player Profiler. He also finished in the top 20 in each of those years in yards per attempt. Those are serviceable numbers. Bridgewater also hit Hill for a 64-yard bomb in last week’s game.

Even if Bridgewater and Hill do not hook up on a deep ball, Hill can still exceed this number. Hill is third among NFL wide receivers with 173 yards after the catch. He is always a threat to take any pass to the house, whether it’s a shot downfield or a simple screen pass. Hill has surpassed this particular number in three of his four games as a Dolphin. The lone exception came against Buffalo, where his longest reception went for 22 yards. I believe this game was an outlier on a couple of fronts. First, the Dolphins only ran 39 offensive plays in that game. The average team runs 63.3 plays per game. Hill very well could have gone over this number under normal circumstances. Buffalo also has a much better defense than the Jets.

Outside corners D.J. Reed and Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner have held up rather well in coverage. Both have allowed a catch rate below 50 percent and less than one yard per route covered. But the Jets have still permitted five different wideouts to catch a 25-yard pass this year. Michael Carter has been operating at slot corner and has been a weak link in New York’s secondary. He has allowed 1.93 yards per route covered and an 85 percent catch rate. Miami lines Hill up all over the formation, so he should get plenty of opportunities against Carter. Safety Lamarcus Joyner has also struggled thus far. Among 80 qualified safeties, Joyner’s 44.8 coverage grade is the seventh-worst. I think Hill will be motivated to prove he made the right decision between Miami and New York, and I expect him to account for at least one long play in this game.

Najee Harris UNDER 16.5 Rush Attempts (-125, PointsBet); UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115, PointsBet)

Speaking of Buffalo’s defense, I am taking a rare (at least for me) under as my final Week 5 player prop. I am listing both lines because I believe both are viable in this game. However, for the sake of bankroll management, I would suggest picking the one that appeals to you more based on the information we have at our disposal. If you wanted to take both of Harris’ props in lieu of either of the Week 5 player props I listed above, I wouldn’t fight you on it.

The Buffalo Bills have played outstanding defense this season, especially against the run. Buffalo has allowed just 230 total rushing yards to opposing backs this year. That is the fourth fewest in the NFL. They have also allowed the second-lowest yards per rush to running backs, at 3.07 yards per clip. The Bills have not given up more than 13 carries or 47 rushing yards to any running back so far in 2022. I think it is likely they keep both of those streaks alive on Sunday when they host Najee Harris and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh is coming into this game with rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett making his first NFL start. Pickett showed flashes last week but also threw three interceptions. I suspect that Buffalo will dare Pickett to beat them with his arm. That could mean extra attention given to Pittsburgh’s run game. While Buffalo usually only uses three down linemen, they did use four at times against Baltimore last week. They could employ a similar game plan to ensure that Harris does not get off early. If they can stifle the run early on, it will put Pittsburgh in difficult down-and-distance situations. This means more dropbacks and fewer rushing attempts and would work against Harris hitting either one of these numbers. The expected game script also figures to work against Harris in this one.

Pittsburgh comes into this game as a 14-point underdog. It is the largest such point spread Pittsburgh has faced in over 50 years. If this game goes the way many expect, the Steelers may be forced to abandon the run. Pittsburgh has had second-half leads in three of their four games so far this season. Even with that being the case, Harris has only bested his yardage prop twice and carry prop once. This game could get ugly quickly for Pittsburgh, making Harris someone I am willing to fade this week.

Also make sure to check out our Week 5 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex Rankings

Fantrax was one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites over the last few years, and we’re not stopping now. We are the most customizable, easy-to-use, and feature-rich platform in the industry, offering the greatest fantasy experience for your dynasty, keeper, redraft, and best ball leagues. Fantasy sports doesn’t sleep, and neither does Fantrax, with seasons running 365 days a year. Take your fantasy leagues to the next level now at Fantrax.com!
Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.