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Trust the Propcess: Week 4 NFL Player Props

On top of the normal matchup analysis that we must consider, weather is likely to impact several Week 4 contests. The remnants of Hurricane Ian continue to wreak havoc throughout the East. Passing game production generally decreases when sustained winds exceed 15 miles per hour. There are four Week 4 games as of this writing where the forecast calls for winds between 15-30 MPH. I am staying away from these games in this piece, as forecasts are known to change quickly. But there will likely be some value on some player props in these games as we get closer to game time. In addition to the NFL player props I list below, I may add picks on Twitter between now and Sunday kickoff. For now, here are some of my favorite Week 4 NFL player props.

Week 4 NFL Player Props

Chris Olave OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110, Bet365)

Rookie Chris Olave has hit the ground running in his first season in the NFL. Olave enters Week 4 eighth in receiving yards and tied for 13th in targets. He also leads Planet Earth with 443 air yards. Yet his Week 4 receiving prop is a very reachable 60 yards. Some of that could be attributed to the in-game absences of Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. But with the Saints having ruled out Thomas for Week 4, Olave should continue to be featured in the Saints passing game on Sunday. I believe this prop is a bit low because New Orleans has also ruled out starting quarterback Jameis Winston. While no signal-caller quite lives up to the “YOLO” mentality than Winston, I think the narrative that Olave will suddenly disappear now that Andy Dalton is starting is a bit overblown.

I realize I am about to compare different receivers in different schemes. But there is certainly reason to believe that Dalton will keep Olave highly engaged. Dalton proved in five late-season games last year that he is more than willing to target his top wideout. In those five games, here are the numbers that Bears’ top wide receiver Darnell Mooney posted:

5-121-1 (16 targets)
5-123-0 (8 targets)
5-27-0 (7 targets)
7-69-1 (13 targets)
12-126-0 (16 targets)

All told, I think there are several paths to Olave beating his Week 4 player prop. We have already seen Olave make splash plays down the field early in his NFL career. He has a reception of at least 49 yards in back-to-back games. But even if Dalton does not target Olave deep to the extent that Winston has, I expect there to be enough meat on the proverbial bone for Olave to beat his prop based on sheer volume. As for the matchup itself, the Vikings do not present an overly difficult one for the talented rookie receiver to overcome.

Minnesota has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts so far this year. They also keep their trio of cornerbacks stationary before the snap. That means Olave will not have to deal solely with three-time All-Pro Patrick Peterson. Peterson looks rejuvenated so far in 2022 and has allowed a catch rate of just 43 percent. Instead, Olave figures to see plenty of snaps against Chandon Sullivan (87 percent catch rate) and Cameron Dantzler (81 percent). The Vikings use a mix of coverage schemes but are primarily a zone defense. Olave has excelled versus zone (196 receiving yards per The 33rd Team) and Dalton has been around long enough to diagnose and dissect zone coverages. I expect Olave to be the Saints’ leading receiver in Week 4 and go over his receiving yards prop.

Curtis Samuel OVER 4.5 Receptions (-140, PointsBet)

I’m running back one of last week’s winners with Curtis Samuel to grab at least a handful of receptions. To be honest, I was shocked this number was still at 4.5 this week. I was certain it would be 5.5 or possibly even 6.5. Samuel has at least nine targets and at least seven catches in all three games this season. In addition, this game sets up as another one where I expect Samuel to be heavily involved. Dallas is second in the NFL with a 36 percent quarterback pressure rate. Protecting the quarterback has been an issue for the Commanders. Opposing defenses have already sacked Carson Wentz 15 times through three games. The best way for Washington to mitigate the Cowboys’ pass rush is to target Samuel near the line of scrimmage with quick passes and dump-offs. I expect Samuel to easily surpass this number.

I believe that from a schematic standpoint, Samuel’s individual matchup will matter less than most receivers. Having said that, I do like him squaring off with Jourdan Lewis on Sunday. Samuel lines up in the slot on 67 percent of offensive snaps. Lewis mans the slot 91 percent of the time and has allowed 13 catches on 15 targeted passes so far this season. He is often willing to cede the catch as long as he can keep the play in front of him. That is all we are looking for here. While Samuel has gone over his current yardage prop in all three games, I would much rather prefer the relative safety of his total receptions prop.

The issue with Samuel’s reception prop is the price itself. A lot of people will not play a prop if it reaches a certain price, regardless of how favorable it may be. And the current price on this prop will likely only get worse throughout the weekend. When I circled this prop as I went through the lines on Friday morning, the price was -122. By the time I went to place the bet in the afternoon, it was -138. Now the cheapest I can find it is -140. I expect this to continue to climb, and I am even seeing it at -190 on some books. The number itself may increase to 5.5 in certain places. I am not opposed to playing it at that number, but it is obviously an advantage to have the extra reception to play with.

Josh Reynolds Long Reception OVER 19.5 Yards (-120, Barstool)

Give me all the Josh Reynolds Week 4 player props. You can get him virtually everywhere at plus-money to catch at least five passes, and his yardage prop is 50.5. I am totally fine playing both of those props, but I am going to highlight his longest reception prop here. Rising star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has been ruled out for Detroit’s Week 4 tilt against Seattle. St. Brown enters Week 4 fourth in receptions and tied for sixth in total targets among NFL wide receivers. While he has understandably grabbed the headlines, Reynolds has acquitted himself quite nicely through three weeks. He caught a touchdown in Week 2 and led the Lions with 96 yards last week. Reynolds should continue to get more looks with both St. Brown and D’Andre Swift out of the lineup this week.

There are a couple of primary reasons I am in on his longest reception prop. First is his recent history since being reunited with quarterback Jared Goff. Detroit acquired Reynolds in the middle of last season, and Reynolds has now played 10 games as a Lion. He has caught at least one 20-yard reception in eight of 10, including eight of the last nine. That includes all three games this season. Given that he should see an increase in targets, I expect him to make at least one big play. I also like his projected individual matchup. Reynolds has operated out of the slot 39 percent of the time, while St. Brown has run 65 percent of his routes from the slot. I expect Reynolds to run at least 50 percent of his routes on Sunday from the slot. When he does, he should have the advantage over Coby Bryant.

Bryant is Seattle’s primary slot cornerback. And unfortunately for him, his performance to date will not remind anyone of the Black Mamba. The fourth-round rookie has had his issues in coverage in the early going of his NFL career. Bryant has covered 42 routes through three games per Pro Football Focus. He has allowed 3.00 yards per route run, which is the third highest among NFL cornerbacks. Of 101 qualified corners, his 34.1 PFF coverage grade is seventh-worst. Again, I am not opposed to playing Reynolds’ yardage and/or reception props in this game. I just happen to prefer his long reception prop given the matchup and expected role this week.

Also make sure to check out our Week 4 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex Rankings

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