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Trust the Propcess: Week 14 NFL Player Props

Week 14 may feature six teams on a bye, but that does not mean player props are in short supply. In fact, there are several spots I like a lot this week. There are even some potential alt props as well as a couple of props that have not yet been posted. I refer to them below and I may be interested in them depending on what numbers we get. Check out my favorite Week 14 player props as well as my logic and see if you are on board. Let me know which ones you like, and please tail responsibly. Don’t let what is supposed to be a little fun action on the side get in the way of your everyday life, especially around the holidays.

Week 14 NFL Player Props

Tom Brady OVER 36.5 Pass Attempts (-130, MGM)

A couple of weeks ago, I listed three player props for Jeff Wilson. I chose one as my favorite but stated I liked all three. Admittedly, I played all three, and they all fell miserably short of hitting. I then decided not to list more than one prop per player per week in this space. However, there are some things to consider with regard to Tom Brady and his Week 14 player props.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a short week and running back Leonard Fournette is questionable with a foot injury. In his last 10 games, Tom Brady has completed at least 25 passes and attempted at least 40 passes nine times. His lowest passing yard total in those 10 games was 243 yards. Here are Tom Brady’s Week 14 player props in those three categories:

Completions – 24.5 (-121, Caesar’s)
Attempts – 36.5 (-130, MGM)
Yards – 250.5 (-120, PointsBet)

Hey, what do I know, right? There’s a reason that sportsbooks have gold-plated bathrooms and I live in an apartment. But I think there is considerable value here on a couple of fronts. First, more than two-thirds of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps this season have been designed pass plays. They are also facing a San Francisco squad that ranks second in rush defense DVOA and yards before contact. As offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich recently unironically stated, he plans to score more points than the opponent. I do not think running the ball is going to be his best method of attack in accomplishing this lofty goal. If Fournette cannot go or is limited, it only increases the already high likelihood that the game plan centers around the pass.

The 49ers are also second in pressure rate on the season. We saw on Monday night that Brady wants to get the ball out as quickly as possible. I expect that will be the case again in this contest, which also increases the chances of these player props hitting. I think Brady’s attempts are probably the best bet for an over. However, if you wanted to play the others, I wouldn’t try to talk you out of it. Another angle to consider is the total reception props for Fournette and Rachaad White. Each back has at least three receptions in seven of his last nine games. The books have not posted these lines yet due to questions surrounding Fournette’s status, but I am keeping an eye out. This may go for the tight end combo of Cameron Brate and Cade Otton as well.

D’Onta Foreman OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)

This line has not been posted yet on all sportsbooks, so keep that in mind. However, I do not expect this number to change drastically between books. I think this number is fine where it is and I like the odds of D’Onta Foreman going over this player prop. In the six games that he has been the featured back for the Carolina Panthers, he has gone over in four of them. However, that statement alone is not doing Foreman justice. Because not only has he gone over 63.5 yards in four games, but he has had at least 113 rushing yards in all four of those games. That means some alt-yardage props could be in play for Foreman this week. That is especially true when you consider his Week 14 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks.

The Seattle Seahawks have allowed 615 rushing yards in their last three games. That includes 506 yards to opposing running backs on just 96 carries, good for a 5.27-yards-per-carry clip. What I like about Foreman as it pertains to this prop is that the volume should be there as long as this game is close. In Foreman’s six games as the lead back, Carolina has lost two by double digits. Foreman totaled just 18 carries in those two contests. In the four games in which Carolina either won or lost by nine points or less, Foreman has averaged 24 carries. Carolina is a 3.5-point underdog in this game, suggesting it should be close. If Foreman gets 20-plus carries, he is a virtual lock to have at least 64 rushing yards.

D’Andre Swift OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards (-120, DraftKings)

D’Andre Swift has been battling injuries all season long, much to the chagrin of his fantasy football managers. Even with that being the case, he has had at least 24 receiving yards in seven of nine games this year. And as we have seen in recent weeks, Swift appears healthier than he has been since the early parts of the season. In each of the last two games, Swift has had at least four receptions and six targets. Detroit removed Swift from their injury report on Friday, which should instill confidence that Swift is relatively close to 100 percent. That is great news for those looking to invest in Swift before a Week 14 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Vikings come into this game with a 10-2 record, but they are not an impenetrable pass defense by any means. That is particularly true when it comes to the running back position. In the last three games, here are some notable receiving lines by running backs against Minnesota:

Tony Pollard: 6 receptions for 109 yards
Rhamondre Stevenson: 9 receptions for 76 yards
Ty Johnson: 6 receptions for 38 yards
Zonovan Knight: 5 receptions for 28 yards

Given their recent struggles containing running backs in the receiving game and Swift’s role in the Lions’ offense, 24.5 yards feels like a very reachable number. Swift has also had at least 24 receiving yards in all six of his home games, for whatever that is worth. This game has the highest implied total on the Week 14 slate, so moving the football should not be a problem on either side. The opportunities should be there for Swift, and I like him to go over this prop given the matchup. If you want the potential for greater bang for your buck, Swift’s receptions prop sits at 3.5. The over is currently +125 at DraftKings, which are pretty good odds considering the circumstances. I am sticking with the receiving yards, but I figured that was worth mentioning.

Also check out our Week 14 Rankings for your season-long leagues: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex Rankings

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