I do not know if this is a good sign or not, but there were a lot of player props I considered writing about this week. The three that I highlight below are my favorites, but I also threw in a few suggestions of other props I am considering as well. I also seem to be skewing towards some unders this week, which is not my M.O. I have hit the last three unders I have suggested in this space, so we shall see if that continues to be a fruitful market. As always, please tail responsibly and keep up with the latest news before kickoff. And if you are using Twitter as your primary source of breaking news, please make sure your sources are legitimate.
Week 10 NFL Player Props
Davis Mills UNDER 208.5 Passing Yards (-115, Wynn)
Note – I realize that Wynn is not the most accessible sportsbook out there. Mills’ passing yardage number is 207.5 at multiple books including MGM and Barstool for those who do not have Wynn. Others have it in the 205.5-206.5 range. I would be comfortable playing this prop at any of these numbers.
There are several reasons I like this prop. First, let’s start with Davis Mills himself. Mills has regressed in his second season after a solid rookie campaign. Among 39 qualified quarterbacks, Mills ranks 37th in EPA (expected points added) this season. He has also struggled mightily against man coverage. Per the33rdteam.com, Mills has completed just 35 of 67 throws versus man, with one touchdown and four interceptions. That is important because New York plays the most man coverage (51 percent per Pro Football Focus) in the NFL. He also has a -0.74 EPA per play against pressure this year, which is 23rd among 28 quarterbacks who have faced pressure on at least 50 snaps. The Giants lead the NFL with a 31 percent pressure rate.
Because of Mills’ ineffectiveness and the emergence of rookie running back Dameon Pierce, Houston has adjusted their offensive approach in recent weeks. Mills attempted at least 32 passes in each of Houston’s first four games. Over the last four contests, however, Mills has only had one such game. Meanwhile, Pierce has averaged 22 carries in his last four tilts after averaging 15 in his first four. As a result, he has gone under 155 passing yards in three of his last four games. I would expect the Texans to continue to rely on Pierce and the running game against the Giants. New York allows an average of 1.67 yards per carry before contact, which is second-worst in the NFL. The Giants have also allowed 5.41 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. That is the third-highest number in the league, behind only the Chargers and the Texans themselves.
To that end, I also expect New York to rely on the run a lot in this game. Saquon Barkley is third in the NFL with 779 rushing yards, and Houston’s rush defense is abysmal. In addition to allowing 5.72 yards per carry to enemy running backs, they have permitted a league-high 1,235 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. With Barkley coming off a Week 10 bye, I would not be surprised to see him approach 30 touches in this game. As an aside, I will likely have some exposure to Barkley overs as well this week. With both teams looking to take the air out of the ball, Mills will likely find it difficult to reach his passing yardage number.
Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown (+125, FanDuel)
This could be one of the more volatile Week 10 player props. The line is likely to move quite a bit depending on the status of Josh Allen. Allen has not yet practiced this week, leaving his status for Sunday in doubt. Buffalo is reportedly taking it hour by hour concerning his availability. If the Bills announce Case Keenum as their Week 10 starter, the likelihood of Diggs scoring should decrease dramatically. That may present a buying opportunity. It may be best to wait if you do not think that Allen will play. On the flip side, if Allen does start, you will not be able to get plus money on a Diggs touchdown. So if you think Allen plays, it may be best to jump on this prop now. While going from Allen to Keenum is a massive downgrade, I still like the odds of Diggs scoring this week.
The matchup itself is not necessarily one to shy away from. Minnesota’s success against the run (3.66 yards per carry to opposing running backs – second in the NFL) makes it unlikely the Bills stray too far from their pass-happy ways even if Keenum gets the start. The Vikings play a ton of zone coverage and keep their corners locked into their positions on the field. Diggs has excelled against zone schemes all season long. He is tied for the NFL lead with three touchdowns against zone and has 537 receiving yards, which is fourth in the league. Diggs is also tied for third among all wide receivers in red zone targets (13) and touchdowns (4). After Patrick Peterson, Minnesota’s cornerbacks are nothing special. Slot corner Chandon Sullivan and right corner Akayleb Evans have each allowed a catch rate north of 75 percent in their primary coverage.
Regardless of who is under center for Buffalo this week, the revenge game narrative is in full effect for Diggs. The former Viking requested a trade from Minnesota after the 2019 season. The Vikings never had a losing season in any of Diggs’ five years in Minnesota, so the request was more about frustration over his role on the team. Diggs has proven over his tenure in Buffalo that he is an elite NFL wideout. He has averaged 88.2 yards per game and has scored 25 times in 41 games as a Bill. Minnesota selected Justin Jefferson with one of the picks they received for Diggs, so the trade was a win-win for all involved. But Diggs will relish the opportunity to score against his former team and let them know that he is indeed him.
Latavius Murray UNDER 36.5 Rushing Yards (-115, Barstool)
There were a couple of other running backs I was considering here, most notably Najee Harris and Leonard Fournette. And I anticipate that I will have some exposure to both of their Week 10 player props as well. But I wanted to highlight Latavius Murray here for a couple of reasons. Murray has averaged 45.3 rushing yards in three games since signing with Denver last month. He has led the team in rushing in two of those games and is the only Broncos back on whom I have seen any rushing props this week. Based on those factors, it would seems as though he is expected to lead Denver’s backfield this week. However, I do not necessarily see this being the case. I also think the matchup will be a difficult one for Murray to overcome.
The Tennessee Titans have allowed just 67.8 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season. That number is the second-lowest in the NFL. The matchup in the trenches figures to be an ugly one from a Broncos’ perspective. Denver opens up an average of 1.13 yards per carry before contact. That number is dead last in the entire league. Tennessee’s defensive front cedes just 1.14 yards per carry before contact. That number is second-best in the NFL. That is important because Murray essentially gets what is blocked for him and little else. Of his 48 carries this season, just one has gone for over 10 yards. That carry was a 14-yard run against the Chargers, who allow the most yards per carry in the league. I have yet to find a “longest rush” prop for Murray, but I would probably take the under on that as well.
Denver’s backfield is also likely to be a three-man committee of sorts moving forward. The Broncos acquired Chase Edmonds at the trade deadline, and head coach Nathaniel Hackett says that Edmonds will play on Sunday. If that is the case, he will siphon away some touches from Murray. General Manager George Paton also made it a point after trading for Edmonds to state that Melvin Gordon was still the team’s starting running back. That may be a designation in name only, as Gordon has been arguably even less efficient and explosive than Murray. Gordon averages 3.5 yards per rush, and has only two 10-plus yard runs among his 75 total carries. Still, Denver will likely trot Gordon out there for 8-12 touches. I just do not think Murray gets enough carries to push him over this number, given his lack of big play ability.