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Trend Tracking: Jorge Soler’s Focused Zone Paying Off

With more than a month now in the books, some early-season performances can start to become meaningful predictors for the rest of a player’s season. While we have not quite hit the stabilization point for most batted-ball statistics, trends are beginning to emerge which may be predictive of the player’s future results. Today, two former top prospects (Kansas City’s Jorge Soler and Atlanta’s Sean Newcomb) are enjoying strong starts to the season.

Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals

Coming off a miserable 2017 MLB performance, Soler seemed to be on his last leg in Kansas City despite hitting well in Triple-A. Still, there was reason for cautious optimism about his fantasy stock, most notably a commitment this offseason to improve his pitch selection. To this point, Soler has seen much improved results, slashing .309/.429/.526 through the first month-plus. While an unsustainable .406 BABIP has no doubt played a large role, Soler’s approach also appears more defined than it was in years past. As Jeffrey Flanagan recently noted, the Royals have been pleased with Soler’s improved feel for the strike zone, which the player confirmed has been a point of emphasis. Nor does this appear to be mere lip service; Soler’s plate discipline metrics show subtle signs of improvement.

Soler has maintained a very low chase rate, although he was arguably too passive at the plate to begin with. More encouragingly, Soler’s swing rate on pitches in the strike zone is up seven percentage points from last year, so, while he remains a patient hitter, he is not passing up on so many hittable pitches. This effect is particularly pronounced when Soler has gotten ahead in the count. After swinging indiscriminately for much of his MLB career when ahead in the count, Soler has shown a much more focused approach, attacking pitches on the inner half and almost never swinging at pitchers’ pitches in hitters’ counts. Unsurprisingly, improved contact quality has followed. Soler’s expected slugging percentage (a Statcast metric which estimates a hitter’s results based upon his exit velocity and launch angle) when he is ahead in the count sits at .564, nearly .100 points higher than in any prior season of his career.

Soler has long had special raw power, but inconsistent on-base ability had threatened to derail his career. Soler has made it a goal to swing at better pitches, he’s done that to this point, and he’s having unprecedented levels of success. He won’t continue to hit over .300 given his high strikeout rate, but his improved approach should both boost his walk rate and allow him to more consistently tap into his power. Not every player is capable of successfully implementing changes in approach; Soler, it seems, has done so. If he can continue to keep his strike zone focused, he should be a must-own in all leagues.

Sean Newcomb, SP, Atlanta Braves

Like Soler, Newcomb’s results this season have been stellar — a 3.38 ERA, a 3.17 FIP, and an expected batting average against of .200. On the surface, Newcomb seems to be on the verge of engineering a breakout at age 24. Unlike Soler, this might actually be a chance to sell high, though. While Newcomb’s results are no doubt improved from last season, his process seems largely the same. His velocity and spin on all his pitches are right in line with last season.

The only meaningful difference to his pitch data is that his changeup has picked up nearly two miles per hour, which is likely not a positive development, since changeups are generally more effective the greater velocity separation there is from the pitcher’s fastball. Newcomb is getting hitters to chase less often, and he is not working in the strike zone any more than he did last year, either. Further, his swinging strike rate has not moved, and he continues to sport a double-digit walk rate. He is, for whatever reason, inducing a ton of soft contact right now, but it doesn’t appear that he is attacking hitters in any different a manner than he did last season. Rather than being on the verge of a breakout, Newcomb seems likely to remain a promising but inconsistent back-end starter.

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