In fantasy baseball, there’s never a bad time to try to gain an advantage over your fellow leaguemates. One way to do this is to take a closer look at under-performing players in the first half to see if they can provide an unexpected boost for your team in the second half. These players may be overlooked or undervalued in your league, and are prime targets to pounce on. Last week, I highlighted three pitchers I think are primed for a surge in the second half of the season. This week, I’ll do the same with three hitters.
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Hitter Surgers for the Second Half
Note: All statistics as of 7/30
Gleyber Torres (2B,SS — NYY)
- .248/.332/.345, 92 wRC+
Gleyber Torres has had a strange season, to say the least. His power has yet to surface (6 home runs), but he’s been bringing the speed (10 stolen bases). Go figure. Torres has been on a tear in the month of July, slashing .273/.355/.470 with a 127 wRC+ for the month. But he’s really kicked things up a notch since the All-Star break, hitting three home runs and stealing four bases in 50 plate appearances. So what’s going on and why should we buy in?
Why Torres will surge:
Taking a look under Torres’ hood, he has a 44.2% hard-hit rate and 13.5% barrel rate in July — both season-highs. He also has a 74.2% contact rate for the month, which is consistent with his career rate.
Torres is also hitting fewer groundballs. He dropped his groundball rate from 50% in May to 37.3% in July, which is in line with his career rate. More encouraging is the fact that he’s hitting fastballs better this month. In 2018 and 2019, when Torres combined for 62 home runs, he was crushing fastballs:
- 2018: .277 BA against and .549 SLG against
- 2019: .292 BA against and .603 SLG against
Torres has struggled with fastballs this season (.222 BA/.319 SLG against). But in July, he improved his numbers against the pitch to .290 BA/.452 SLG against — and he has a 94.5 mph average exit velocity against them, to boot!
I don’t expect Torres to bring crazy power for the rest of the season, but his .404 xSLG indicates more should be on the way. As for the steals, Torres’ 10 stolen bases are a career-high. Your guess is as good as mine as to whether they’ll keep coming. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Consider Torres poised for a second-half surge, with any steals a surge sweetener.
Jorge Soler (OF — ATL)
- .192/.288/.370, 81 wRC+
It’s easy to look at Jorge Soler’s eyesore of a slash line and walk away. But a closer look says not so fast. Soler has been on fire recently, slashing .212/.307/.561 with a 131 wRC+ and .348 ISO in July. He also hit seven home runs in his last 14 games. The batting average and on-base percentage is still ugly, but there are a few reasons that indicate a performance surge is on its way.
Why Soler will surge:
Soler is a power hitter who hits the snot out of the ball. Both his average exit velocity (92.3) and hard hit rate (51.4%) are ranked in the top 9% of the league — and both are consistent with his rates since 2019. Soler also increased his barrel rate to 19.6% in July — a season-high.
Additionally, Soler has made improvements to his plate approach. Since June, he cut down his strikeouts and increased his walks:
K% BB%
- April: 31.2% 9.7%
- May: 32.4% 6.9%
- June: 22.2% 14.4%
- July: 20% 12%
With all his power and improved plate approach, why has Soler disappointed for most of the season? Part of the reason is that Soler has been extremely unlucky. He currently has a .229 BABIP, 70 points lower than his career .299 mark. Similarly, his expected slugging percentage is .468, a whopping 98 points higher than his current .370 percentage.
Additionally, Soler was hitting too many flyballs at extreme launch angles. So while he was hitting balls hard, they were still landing in play. He made the necessary adjustments in July, and we’re starting to see the results. If Soler can maintain his improvements, he should put on a power surge in the second half of the season.
Andrew Vaughn (1B,OF — CWS)
- .260/.318/.450, 110 wRC+
When looking at Andrew Vaughn’s current stat line, nothing really stands out. In fact, it screams average. But his current slash line masks his recent plate discipline improvements. It also hides that he’s been heating up at the plate.
It’s taken a little while for Vaughn to adjust to the big leagues, but he’s recently turned on the burners. In July, Vaughn is slashing .318/.337/.541, and has a .224 ISO and 139 wRC+ for the month. Vaughn has turned the corner on the season, and there are encouraging signs that indicate the turn is for real.
Why Vaughn will surge:
Taking a look at his plate discipline, Vaughn has increased his contact rate each month (from 65.3% in April to 86.6% in July) and has decreased his SwStr% each month (from 15.9% in April to 6.3% in July). In addition to improving his plate discipline, he’s also hitting the ball hard — his 49.8% hard-hit rate is ranked in the 87th percentile of the league.
Vaughn has also worked on his plate approach since the start of the season, cutting his strikeout rate in half from 30.9% in April to 14.6% in July. However, his walk rate is a concern. In April, Vaughn carried a solid 12.7% walk rate, but that number decreased each month and has taken a nose-dive to a 2.2% rate in July. Yikes!
I don’t want to wholly dismiss the downward trend in his walk rate this season, but Vaughn had a remarkable plate approach in college — he finished the University of California with 123 walks and 75 strikeouts — so I’m inclined to think that this is just a matter of growing pains and that he’ll be able to improve as the season goes on, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. I expect Vaughn to improve his walk rate, continue to make adjustments, and surge down the stretch.
Thanks for checking out this week’s article. Be sure to check out Eric Cross’s updated Top Fantasy Baseball Prospects.
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