Hitters with strong contact rates tend to perform better. When hitters see their contact rates increase, they tend to post higher batting averages and lower strikeout rates. Some hitters can be enigmas, however. They have poor contact rates, high strikeout rates, and still post solid numbers. Usually, hitters with poor contact rates tend to post higher strikeout rates and poor batting averages.
Today, we will dive in on three hitters who have improved their contact rates this season and have seen great results. Can they stick long-term? Does this improve their dynasty stock? Let’s take a look.
What?! Your season-long fantasy baseball league is not using Fantrax? Inconceivable! Check out everything Fantrax has to offer and I’m sure you’ll come around to our way of thinking.
Hitters With Improved Contact Rates
Matt Olson, 1B, Oakland Athletics
Matt Olson’s 2021 season has been nothing short of impressive. A career .245 hitter in 1696 career plate appearances before 2021, Olson has seen a dramatic uptick in contact and batting average. Olson had a career 73.1 percent contact rate and just a 77.7 percent zone contact rate before this season. After a putrid 68.1 percent contact rate in 2020 where Olson hit .195, he has raised that number to 78.6 percent and has a .274 batting average. His zone-contact rate of 84.6 percent is a career-high by over six percent.
What has led to Olson’s transformation? It may seem crazy, but I actually think it begins with an increased swing rate. Olson is swinging more on first pitches and has seen his out-of-zone swing rate and in-zone swing rate increase by nearly five percent each.
He also has improved against pitches low in the zone. Last season, he struck out often and posted poor batting averages on pitches low in the zone. That has completely flipped. You can see his zone batting average charts below.
Olson has always posted high walk rates throughout his career, with an 11.3 percent rate for his career. Ultimately, Olson’s higher strikeout rate was due to working too deep into counts. Now that he is swinging more, the aggressiveness has lead to more balls being put into play without sacrificing the walk rate. This season, Olson still has a 12.5 percent walk rate but has seen his strikeout rate drop to 16.4 percent, nearly half of last year’s rate. His swinging-strike rate is also down to ten percent. This leads me to believe that the lower strikeout rate for Olson is sustainable.
Moving forward, I would not be surprised to see Olson post serviceable strikeout rates below 20 percent. In an OBP format especially, I believe that Olson is a top-30 dynasty asset.
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
It should not come as a surprise that Pete Alonso has improved in his third Major League season. In 2019, as a Rookie, Alonso smashed his way to the Rookie of the Year award with 53 home runs and a .260/.358/.583 slash. This year, Alonso is up to 30 home runs and has a .268/.345/.514 slash. His strikeout rate is down to 20.2 percent, and his overall contact rate is up to a career-best 78 percent.
It is a significant improvement for Alonso, who posted a 71.5 percent contact rate last season. Alonso has always posted solid zone-contact rates, but this season has seen him improve even more to an 87.9 percent z-contact rate.
Much like Olson, Alonso has benefited from swinging more. His swing rate is up three percent, and his in-zone swing rate is up four percent. That may not seem significant, but more swings in the zone mean more contact from Alonso. His swinging-strike rate is down to 10.7 percent, which is better than the league average. He is mashing fastballs again, which was his downfall in 2020.
With his production steadily improving and the underlying metrics supporting it, Alonso is one of the top first base options for dynasty leagues.
Willy Adames, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Willy Adames has had a massive breakout season, but it was not until his move to Milwaukee when it began. Yes, he is currently on the Injured List with a strained left quadriceps. His rest-of-season status remains unknown, but the long-term impact could be substantial. Adames just turned 26 years old, and his best days are still likely ahead of him.
From a season-long standpoint, Adames has improved his overall contact rate from 63.9 percent in 2020 to 69.8 percent in 2021. The overall contact rate has been less than impressive, but it is worth noting that since joining the Brewers on May 22, Adames had a 72.8 percent contact rate. It is still not studly, but Adames zone-contact is up to 82.6 percent over that time.
It seemed to be a simple change of scenery that led to Adames’s breakout. Since the trade, he has a .294/.375/.529 slash with 17 home runs and four stolen bases in 365 plate appearances. Some may question the legitimacy of the breakout, but this is who Adames has been on the road for his entire career. In 740 road plate appearances in his career, Adames has a .303/.373/.516 slash with 35 home runs.
The numbers in Milwaukee seem like the player Adames could continue to be. He just turned 26 years old and is entering the prime of his career. I could see him being a top-100 dynasty player moving forward.
Be sure to check out all our other great fantasy baseball content on FantraxHQ to help you win your leagues!
Media References: Baseball Savant. Statistical References: Baseball Savant and Fangraphs
Fantrax was one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites of 2020, and we’re not stopping now. With multi-team trades, designated commissioner/league managers, and drag/drop easy click methods, Fantrax is sure to excite the serious fantasy sports fan – sign up now for a free year at Fantrax.com.