Last week’s theme to my starting pitcher rankings was no-hitters. That was preferable to this week’s theme, which is apparently injuries. I’ll let this fun chart Derek Rhoads tweeted outdo the heavy lifting for me in terms of how rough it is in these streets.
For those keeping score at home, through yesterday MLB IL placements are up 30% compared to 2019. This does NOT include COVID-IL placements. pic.twitter.com/0aJJddY8zi
— Derek Rhoads (@drhoa3) May 27, 2021
This is the point in the season where playing the waiver wire and doing your best to patch up all the injury holes is vital. Check out Mendy’s Pitching Streamers for the week here, and Mike Carter’s Two-Start Pitchers here for help.
- Zach Plesac hits the IL following a classic baseball injury. He suffered a non-displaced thumb fracture “aggressively taking off a shirt”. He won’t need surgery, but prepare to be without him for over a month. Always take your shirts off passively, folks. Safety first.
- Jesus Luzardo is returning from the IL this week, but he’ll work out of the bullpen to begin with. He’ll rejoin the list when he’s stretched back out.
- In the vein of “these things tend to work themselves out”, last week I mentioned the impending returns of Jake Odorizzi and Framber Valdez. Well, Lance McCullers, Jr. hit the IL this week with some nebulous soreness in his right shoulder. That means Luis Garcia remains in the rotation for the time being. Garcia has been impressive, with a 10.57 K/9 and 2.93 ERA. He went six innings for the first time in his last start, which was an impressive 6 IP, 0 ER outing against the Dodgers. His FIP is a much less appealing 4.28, but he’s stream-worthy while he’s in the rotation.
- Noah Syndergaard has been shut down for six weeks after feeling some discomfort in his surgically repaired elbow during his rehab. At this point, he’s a safe drop if your IL is nearing capacity like mine all are. Also, as I speculated a few weeks ago, Mike Soroka is officially out for the season and is a safe drop. Sad face.
What?! Your fantasy baseball league is not using Fantrax? Inconceivable! Check out everything Fantrax has to offer, and I’m sure you’ll come around to our way of thinking.
The Starting Pitcher Barometer
The Risers
Chris Bassitt, OAK (+13) – The Bassitt Hounds are howling! He pitched his way nearly inside the top-thirty on the list after his latest effort, a two-hit shutout of the Angels. His ERA now sits at 3.21, with both his FIP and xERA sitting below 3.00, at 2.92. He throws both a cutter and slider these days, the latter of which has seen its RPM’s increase this year by 156. His whiff rate on the pitch is an absurd 64.1%. It has proven to be an effective pitch against righties, and he only tosses it 8.7% of the time. His command and deep repertoire bode well for continued success. Toss him a bone!
Chris Bassitt, 92mph Sinker (ball) and 76mph Slider (backwards K), Overlay.
Why would you take a Slider right down the middle? pic.twitter.com/Vafd6Z0kaC
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 28, 2021
Shane McClanahan, TB (+14) – If you’ll recall, I was over the moon for McClanahan’s stuff following his debut. What I wasn’t sure about was his workload. It’s a question for literally any Rays pitcher who comes up, not to mention a rookie who hadn’t been fully built up. Well, it’s about time I showed Shane some damn respect. He gets the bump up to nearly the top-fifty after tossing five-plus innings in each of his last three starts. He has a sexy-time 17:3 K:BB ratio over that span (15.1 IP). As primarily a two-pitch (slider/fastball) starter, however, I still don’t expect him to get to the point where he’s racking up quality starts with 6+ innings frequently. Five innings qualifies you for the win, though, and that’s all that matters in standard mixers.
The Fallers
Blake Snell, SDP (-6) – Oh, the irony of writing up McClanahan and Snell back-to-back. The former Rays pitcher is the one who is having issues pitching five-plus innings. He hasn’t logged five innings in four of his last five starts. In his latest, he was thrashed for seven runs in just three innings against the Astros. He walked three in that start, bringing his BB/9 up to 5.94 on the season. He’s still missing a ton of bats (13.4 K/9), but it’s not worth it if he’s rarely pitching deep enough to qualify for a win.
Snell’s HR/FB rate is an elevated 21.1%. With that normalized, his xFIP looks much nicer at 3.57. However, gopheritis is an issue that dates back to last season for Snell. He had a 29.4% HR/FB over 50 innings in 2020. It didn’t hurt him as bad then, however, since he wasn’t walking as many batters (3.24 BB/9). He simply doesn’t have any control right now. When he is finding the strike zone, he’s leaving too much right over the plate. That has earned him a horrendous .460 xwOBACON. Due to the lack of command and control, we can’t just expect his HR rate to regress to the mean.
Where does that leave us? As you saw, I only actually dropped Snell six spots in my starting pitcher rankings. The strikeouts at least provide a nice floor, so it’s hard to drop him too far. He’s well out of the Ace tier, and the #2 tier as well. Would I trade him straight up for Alek Manoah, who appears in the Newcomer section? I’m tempted. If you can trade Snell for closer to his draft-day value, I’d do it.
Dylan Bundy, LAA (-7) – Bundy is suffering from the same home run problem as Snell. While Bundy’s 17.6% K-BB% isn’t lagging far behind his 2020 20.6% mark, his HR/FB rate is up from 8% to 18%. His ERA has followed suit, exploding from 3.29 to 6.50. Woof. His xFIP points to greener pastures at 3.89, but can we expect that home run regression?
Last year’s HR/FB success came in large part due to his diminished fastball usage. He relied on more offspeed stuff, dropping his fastball usage 8% to 41.9%. Apparently, he wanted to mess up a good thing, because his fastball usage is back up to 47.5% this year. His four-seam fastball has allowed a .378 wOBA, although its .338 xwOBA suggests a bit of bad fortune so far.
If you just pull up Bundy’s Fangraphs player page, his 2020 HR/FB looks a lot like an outlier. However, with a return to his 2020 pitch mix, I do think better days could be ahead for Bundy. I’d buy low.
The Newcomers
Alek Manoah, TOR (SP42) – Hopefully you were able to heed my advice and stash Manoah prior to this past week because his debut was straight-up baseball porn. The thicc boi shut out the Yankees over six innings, allowing just two hits with two walks and seven K’s. He earned a 35% CSW overall, including six whiffs on 30 four-seamers. What’s that? You want another Pitching Ninja gif? Oh, alright. Just for you.
Alek Manoah, 96mph Fastball and 84mph Slider, Overlay with Tails. 😯 pic.twitter.com/Fwu4kXn15M
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 27, 2021
Manoah has a big-time starters frame and an electric arsenal. There isn’t much to critique here, aside from maybe that you’d like a bit more than 31% whiffs on the slider. That’s likely to come sooner than later. Perhaps he’ll wear down as the season wears on, but we’re nitpicking here. He should be owned and started in all formats moving forward.
James Kaprielian, OAK (SP85) – Dipping more into the streamer waters here than the must-own pool of my starting pitcher rankings, we have James Kaprielian. I do have to admit, I’m predisposed to like Kaprielian because every time I see his name, I’m reminded of a badass Mastodon song called Cappilarian Crest. Yes, I’m aware it’s not spelled even remotely similar. This is just how my brain works.
Anyway, Kap took care of a listless Mariners lineup last time out, tossing seven shutout, two-hit innings. He doesn’t have a lot of upside at this point, but he has a Memorial Day start against – what’s this – the Mariners again! That’s all I need to see to roll the dice on Kap once again. His 9.7% SwStr% doesn’t bode well for long-term fantasy viability, and his 91% Z-Contact% is even kinda scary. Just roll with him for this plus matchup and we’ll go from there.
Top 100 Starting Pitcher Rankings
| Rnk | Name | Prev. Rnk |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | 1 |
| 2 | Gerrit Cole | 2 |
| 3 | Shane Bieber | 3 |
| 4 | Trevor Bauer | 4 |
| 5 | Yu Darvish | 5 |
| 6 | Brandon Woodruff | 6 |
| 7 | Aaron Nola | 7 |
| 8 | Max Scherzer | 8 |
| 9 | Clayton Kershaw | 9 |
| 10 | Corbin Burnes | 10 |
| 11 | Walker Buehler | 11 |
| 12 | Zack Wheeler | 12 |
| 13 | Tyler Glasnow | 13 |
| 14 | Julio Urias | 15 |
| 15 | Hyun Jin Ryu | 17 |
| 16 | Jack Flaherty | 14 |
| 17 | Lucas Giolito | 16 |
| 18 | Lance Lynn | 18 |
| 19 | Kevin Gausman | 24 |
| 20 | Carlos Rodon | 23 |
| 21 | Trevor Rogers | 20 |
| 22 | Freddy Peralta | 25 |
| 23 | John Means | 21 |
| 24 | Sandy Alcantara | 19 |
| 25 | Pablo Lopez | 22 |
| 26 | Sonny Gray | 26 |
| 27 | Joe Musgrove | 31 |
| 28 | Jose Berrios | 28 |
| 29 | Zach Eflin | 35 |
| 30 | Tyler Mahle | 33 |
| 31 | Chris Bassitt | 44 |
| 32 | Zack Greinke | 32 |
| 33 | Charlie Morton | 34 |
| 34 | Alex Wood | 41 |
| 35 | Aaron Civale | 37 |
| 36 | Blake Snell | 30 |
| 37 | Nathan Eovaldi | 43 |
| 38 | Max Fried | 36 |
| 39 | Framber Valdez | NA |
| 40 | Ian Anderson | 38 |
| 41 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 40 |
| 42 | Alek Manoah | NA |
| 43 | Dylan Cease | 50 |
| 44 | Anthony DeSclafani | 54 |
| 45 | Cristian Javier | 42 |
| 46 | Luis Castillo | 39 |
| 47 | Stephen Strasburg | 45 |
| 48 | Marcus Stroman | 48 |
| 49 | Chris Paddack | 49 |
| 50 | Shohei Ohtani | 51 |
| 51 | Rich Hill | 72 |
| 52 | Robbie Ray | 58 |
| 53 | Shane McClanahan | 67 |
| 54 | Dylan Bundy | 47 |
| 55 | Patrick Corbin | 53 |
| 56 | Brady Singer | 52 |
| 57 | Madison Bumgarner | 55 |
| 58 | Matthew Boyd | 56 |
| 59 | Yusei Kikuchi | 64 |
| 60 | Kyle Hendricks | 70 |
| 61 | Frankie Montas | 57 |
| 62 | Taijuan Walker | 60 |
| 63 | Domingo German | 59 |
| 64 | Spencer Turnbull | 62 |
| 65 | Jordan Montgomery | 71 |
| 66 | Sean Manaea | 66 |
| 67 | Michael Pineda | 63 |
| 68 | Casey Mize | 83 |
| 69 | Adbert Alzolay | 76 |
| 70 | JT Brubaker | 68 |
| 71 | Logan Webb | 78 |
| 72 | Jose Urquidy | NA |
| 73 | Mike Minor | 73 |
| 74 | Alex Cobb | 82 |
| 75 | Luis Garcia | 81 |
| 76 | Jameson Taillon | 74 |
| 77 | Cole Irvin | 75 |
| 78 | German Marquez | 65 |
| 79 | Andrew Heaney | 69 |
| 80 | Garrett Richards | 77 |
| 81 | Kwang Hyun Kim | 79 |
| 82 | Austin Gomber | NA |
| 83 | Jon Gray | 84 |
| 84 | Dane Dunning | 80 |
| 85 | James Kaprielian | NA |
| 86 | Chris Flexen | 85 |
| 87 | Spencer Howard | 86 |
| 88 | Kris Bubic | NA |
| 89 | Jake Odorizzi | NA |
| 90 | Nick Pivetta | 92 |
| 91 | Carlos Martinez | 90 |
| 92 | Adam Wainwright | 91 |
| 93 | David Peterson | 93 |
| 94 | Adrian Houser | 94 |
| 95 | Tyler Anderson | 87 |
| 96 | Merrill Kelly | 99 |
| 97 | Steven Matz | 100 |
| 98 | Cody Poteet | 95 |
| 99 | Wade Miley | 96 |
| 100 | Johnny Cueto | 97 |
Fell Off The List
Lance McCullers, Jr. (Injury), Zach Plesac (Injury), Corey Kluber (Injury), Kyle Gibson (Injury), Corbin Martin (Minors), Ryan Weathers (Performance), Martin Perez (Performance).
Like Nathan’s Starting Pitcher Rankings? For more help, check out Eric Cross’s latest Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire column.
Fantrax was one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites of 2020, and we’re not stopping now. With multi-team trades, designated commissioner/league managers, and drag/drop easy click methods, Fantrax is sure to excite the serious fantasy sports fan – sign up now for a free year at Fantrax.com.