Starting Pitcher Barometer, Week 8: Burned By The Brubaker

I guess I’d be doing the fantasy community a disservice if I didn’t make some witty quip about no-hitters in this intro, right? Well, I’ve been doing the fantasy community a disservice for years anyway with this series, so why stop now! There have been a bunch of no-hitters! It’s weird and is probably happening because they changed the baseballs again. There’s way more to read into that than I have time or space for here, so I’ll save that for another day. I’ll touch on the performances in The Risers segment of my starting pitcher rankings.

• Framber Valdez and Jake Odorizzi are out on rehab assignments as they work their way back to the Astros rotation. Odorizzi has built up to a nearly full workload and could be back as soon as this week. Valdez isn’t too far behind and should join the Astros in early June. I’m taking a wait-and-see approach with Odorizzi, but if you know me, you know I’m a Framblin’ Man. Stash him if you still can. When both are back, that is bad news for Luis Garcia. He has impressed with a 10.58 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, and 3.38 ERA through 40 innings. He’ll probably get pushed into a long-relief role.
• The Jays are still rolling out Steven Matz (6.67 ERA over his last six starts) and Ross Stripling (7.20 ERA over 25 IP) every fifth day. Nate Pearson is still building up after his shoulder impingement. Their fifth starter is some guy named TBD. They might need some help. Enter 2019 first-round draft pick Alek Manoah. Manoah has been outstanding at Triple-A, with a 0.50 ERA and 27:3 K:BB ratio through 18 innings (3 GS). At 6’6″, 270 lbs, Manoah is a thicc boi who sits mid-90’s with his fastball and offers a slider and changeup as well. Stash away.
• Kenta Maeda has hit the IL with a sore groin. He’s been pitching through it but has been less than effective, with a 5.27 ERA and 1.48 WHIP through 42.2 IP. Perhaps the IL stint really is to rest his groin, but the Twins might also be taking this time to make some mechanical tweaks to get him back to where he needs to be. You didn’t really want to be starting him anyway, so hopefully, he comes back and is more like the Maeda we loved in 2020.
• Huascar Ynoa is out for “at least a couple of months” after breaking his pitching hand punching a bench in the dugout. He should have done the happy dance instead.

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The Starting Pitcher Barometer

The Risers

Corey Kluber, NYY (+15) – Kluber threw the sixth no-hitter of the season last week. It was against a Rangers lineup that doesn’t quite strike fear into the hearts of pitchers, but it was impressive nevertheless. Despite his fastball losing a tick in velocity, Kluber has remained close to a strikeout per inning. His 3.58 BB/9 is more in line with his awful 2019 season (3.79 BB/9, 5.80 ERA), which doesn’t bode well. He is, at the very least, healthy and able to pitch deep into games. I can’t see him turning back into the ace of yesteryear, but he has worked his way back up my starting pitcher rankings and into being someone you start almost every week.

HE DID IT! COREY KLUBER NO-HITS THE RANGERS! pic.twitter.com/0JRtwTxOOc

— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) May 20, 2021

Spencer Turnbull, DET (+22) – Speaking of starters taking advantage of weak matchups, Turnbull no-hit the Mariners last week. Seattle ranks dead last in baseball with a .282 team wOBA. They are also fifth in MLB with a 26.8% K%. It’s the second time they’ve been no-hit already this season. This is not to take away from Turnbull’s performance, of course. He has finally begun to put it together, namely by cutting his walk rate from 4.61 BB/9 to 2.10 this year.

Turnbull’s first-pitch strike rate is easily a career-high, at 70.2%. That has been huge for him in limiting the free passes. He also remains elite at limiting the long ball (0.63 HR/9 career mark). However, he still has a meager 11.1% swinging-strike rate and 25.7% CSW. We can’t anoint him as a must-own in all formats or anything, but he’s moving towards the front of the streamer pack.

The Fallers

JT Brubaker, PIT (-20) – Things have gone south in a hurry for Brubaker. His ERA jumped from 3.27 to 4.20 after his latest effort, a 5.1 IP, 7 ER debacle in Atlanta. He still has a great 9.30 K/9 and 2.19 BB/9, but his ERA is finally catching up to his 4.81 FIP. He gave up three homers in the start, which has become an issue for him. His HR/9 is now at 1.82. He still earned a 37% CSW in his latest blow-up, including 17 whiffs on the slider alone. He’s pretty much fastball/slider at this point, though, limiting his upside. You knew the good times were going to come to an end eventually, and here we are. He can still be a useful streamer, but a volatile one due to the long ball issues.

Luis Castillo, CIN (-10) – Woof. Castillo gave up five runs in as many innings with four walks and five K’s in his last start against Milwaukee. That puts his season-long ERA at 7.61 through 47.1 innings. His strikeout rate remains way off his previous seasons at 8.56 K/9. What do we do with him? He’s barely inside the top 40 of my starting pitcher rankings at this point, and I might still prefer some of the names behind him for the rest of the season.

The good news is that his fastball velocity is trending up. It averaged 97.2 MPH in his last start, up nearly a full tick from where he’s been this season. His sinker has been tattooed all year, with a .621 wOBA heading into Sunday. There’s still hope here, although I’d leave him on my bench until he convinces me otherwise, and I’m not sure I’d have the cajones to try to buy low via trade.

The Newcomers

Stephen Strasburg, WSH (SP45) – Stras is back, baby! He blanked the Orioles over 5.1 innings, allowing just one hit in his return from the IL. He did walk four batters, however, which is something he’s had issues with through his three starts. His velocity also isn’t fully back to where it used to be, as he averaged 92.3 MPH.

Also concerning is the lack of whiffs. He earned just eight whiffs on 72 pitches, relying upon called strikes with his fastball. I fear that the lack of velocity is going to lead to a rocky season for him. If my gut is right, this ranking at SP45 is going to be too high. For now, he gets somewhat of a rankings hedge.

Cody Poteet, MIA (SP95) – I’ll get this out of the way now – there are a ton of puns that come to mind when I see the name Poteet. None of them are likely to get by the editor. So I’ll just get to the good stuff. Poteet lowered his ERA to 1.06 on Sunday, taking advantage of a banged-up Mets lineup. He moved to 2-0, shutting the Mets out over seven innings. He gave up just three hits with no walks and four K’s. He’s walked only two batters through 17 innings, although just 13 K’s is not very sexy-time.

He has a teet-ilating four-pitch mix (you knew I couldn’t stop myself), utilizing his fastball, changeup, slider, and curve all over 10% of the time. While this repertoire should keep batters guessing, he doesn’t have a big whiff-getting pitch. The lack of strikeouts limits his upside. Despite the brilliant start to his career, I don’t expect him to be more than a deep-league streamer for 2021.

Top 100 Starting Pitcher Rankings

Fell Off The List:

Huascar Ynoa (Injury), Kenta Maeda (Injury), Danny Duffy (Injury), Dinelson Lamet (Role), Logan Gilbert (Performance), Jake Arrieta (Performance), Triston McKenzie (Performance), Ross Stripling (Performance).

Like Nathan’s Starting Pitcher Rankings? For more help, check out Eric Cross’s latest Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire column.

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