Starting Pitcher Barometer, Week 4: Kenta Maeda Me Cry

Welcome to Week 4 of the Starting Pitcher Barometer, my weekly take on starting pitcher rankings! Never mind that it’s technically Week 5! Who cares about that opening half-week? Not me, that’s for sure. Just roll with it. In fact, you should be glad I didn’t title this article “Ryan Weathers The Storm”. It took a lot of self-restraint, but I imagine about 30 sites will have a similar title this week. Moving right along! Keep both eyes open and grab your favorite bunny. It’s time for some news and notes on non-Top 100 pitchers.

• Madison Bumgarner tossed a seven-inning no-hitter against the Braves. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out seven. The only baserunner he allowed was Ozzie Albies, who reached on a throwing error. It’s a great outing against a Braves lineup who was shut out over both games of the doubleheader. He dropped his ERA all the way down to…6.31. Bummy’s FIP is a more promising 4.54 and his command was reminiscent of his heyday. He’s got the Rockies on the road next, which is a juicy matchup if you’re in the mood for a dangerous stream. He still isn’t a Top-100 starter for me.
• Luis Patino made his Rays debut on Sunday and looked every bit as good as expected. He averaged 94.4 MPH on the fastball and earned a 45% CSW on 11 sliders. He won’t debut in the top 100, however, since his role is up in the air. Even if he sticks with the Rays for a few weeks, he’ll be limited to a few innings per week as a glorified opener or long reliever. Dynasty owners can continue to drool away.
• Michael Kopech drew the spot start in Lance Lynn’s place and did not disappoint. He gave up just one run on four hits with no walks and 10 K’s on Sunday against an admittedly weak Rangers lineup. He earned a sexy-time 45% CSW with his fastball, which averaged 95.4 MPH and touched 98.6. With Lynn expected back this week, Kopech will likely return to his long relief role. That nixes his value in most leagues, but he’s worth a stash in deeper leagues.

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The Starting Pitcher Barometer

The Risers

Nathan Eovaldi, BOS (+14) – A preseason sleeper darling for some, Eovaldi has pulled through for his believers thus far. He has earned a 3.77 ERA with an 8.48 K/9 and an excellent 1.57 BB/9 through 28.2 IP (5 GS). With fewer cutters and more sliders this year, Eovaldi now has five pitches thrown over 10% of the time. All three of his breaking pitches (curve, slider, splitter) have a 30%+ whiff rate. He’s actually been unfortunate with a .329 BABIP and 62.9% strand rate, meaning his FIP is an elite 1.94. He should be started everywhere for his next matchup against the Rangers.

 

Cristian Javier, HOU (+26) – Javier rockets up the list after back-to-back shutout starts against the A’s and Angels. On the season, he now has a 1.32 ERA with a 13.17 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9. The 24-year-old righty’s velo is up a tick from 2020, and his slider has been absolute filth. The slide piece has earned a 51.5% whiff rate with a .084 wOBA (.044 xwOBA). His changeup is bad, however, which could continue to give him poor platoon splits against lefties (.332 wOBA against LHP in 2020). Still, the strikeouts have to push him to the forefront of mixed league streaming territory.

The Fallers

Kenta Maeda, MIN (-7) – Maeda drops to the edge of the top 30 after a brutal start to the season. Through 17.2 IP (4 GS) he has suffered a 6.11 ERA (5.30 FIP) with a diminished 8.66 K/9 and 2.55 BB/9. He has tossed a career-high 43% sliders to this point, but it has been crushed.

After a Cy Young worth 2020 season in which his slider earned a .304 wOBA, it has thus far been clobbered to the tune of a .504 wOBA. This isn’t surprising when you check out the slider’s heat map.

He has been tossing far too many center-cut sliders. They have been appropriately crushed, with a .735 SLG allowed on 129 thrown. Maeda has always had very strong control, so this strikes me as a problem he should be able to resolve as the season rolls along. His next matchup is a favorable divisional one against Cleveland.

 

Casey Mize, DET (-21) – We thought Mize was a prize as he came up through the minors, but that ship has capsized. Despite an extra tick in velocity this year, as I mentioned last week, he’s pitched to a 5.23 ERA (6.34 FIP). His strikeouts are also down, with a 6.10 K/9 . There isn’t anything to suggest the K/9 is going to bounce back either, with a mere 8% SwStr% and 25.6% CSW. His splitter – thought to be his best weapon in the minors – has a poor 15% whiff rate. He continues to be homer-prone (2.18 HR/9) and impossible to trust. He may not be long for the list at this rate.

 

The Newcomers

Danny Duffy, KC (SP65) – The Duff Man returns, oh yeah! After his latest start – five shutout innings with eight K’s against the Tigers – Duffy debuts at 65 in my starting pitcher rankings. He has a 0.39 ERA now through 23 IP (4 GS) with a 10.57 K/9 and 2.35 BB/9. His velocity is back up to 93.6 MPH on average, which is where it sat in his heyday years ago. His fastball and changeup were both over 43% CSW in his last start. That’s not even to mention his slider, which has earned 37.5% whiffs and a .236 wOBA. Crack open a cold one with the Duff Man and stream your way to Inebriation Land.

 

Ryan Weathers, SD (SP69) – Dinelson Lamet returned to the Padres rotation for all of two innings before hitting the IL with a forearm injury. The Padres are hopeful he avoids another Tommy John surgery (as we all are), but he can’t seem to pitch without pain. While Lamet is out, in steps Ryan Weathers. Ryan is, of course, the son of Carl Weathers, who lost an arm to the Predator and a hand to an alligator. Some (or literally everyone) dispute that lineage, but I’m holding tight.

Weathers has only started two games, with three relief appearances. He has a sterling 0.59 ERA with a 9.39 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 over those 15.1 IP. He was the seventh overall pick in 2018 (and is actually the son of former MLB reliever David Weathers), so he has the bloodlines and pedigree you want. What he doesn’t have (so far) is a third pitch.

He has been primarily fastball/slider, with just 10 changeups thrown. In relief, you don’t need a third pitch. However, if he’s going to be a successful starter, you really need that third offering. The results have certainly been great so far, but don’t get carried away. You’re not going to see a .097 BABIP or a literal 100% strand rate hold for too long.

 

Top 100 Starting Pitcher Rankings

Rnk	Name	Prev Rnk
1	Jacob deGrom	1
2	Gerrit Cole	2
3	Shane Bieber	3
4	Aaron Nola	4
5	Trevor Bauer	5
6	Clayton Kershaw	6
7	Yu Darvish	8
8	Lucas Giolito	7
9	Walker Buehler	9
10	Tyler Glasnow	10
11	Corbin Burnes	11
12	Brandon Woodruff	15
13	Max Scherzer	12
14	Lance Lynn	13
15	Zack Wheeler	16
16	Jack Flaherty	17
17	Hyun Jin Ryu	19
18	Sandy Alcantara	21
19	Blake Snell	18
20	Zac Gallen	22
21	Luis Castillo	14
22	Jose Berrios	20
23	Joe Musgrove	29
24	Charlie Morton	27
25	Zack Greinke	26
26	Sonny Gray	24
27	Julio Urias	34
28	Lance McCullers	30
29	Pablo Lopez	36
30	Kenta Maeda	23
31	Aaron Civale	28
32	Dylan Bundy	31
33	Tyler Mahle	39
34	Trevor Rogers	45
35	Freddy Peralta	35
36	Kyle Hendricks	37
37	Frankie Montas	33
38	Ian Anderson	40
39	Jesus Luzardo	43
40	Eduardo Rodriguez	59
41	Marcus Stroman	32
42	Chris Paddack	44
43	Dustin May	55
44	Carlos Rodon	48
45	Kevin Gausman	54
46	Nathan Eovaldi	60
47	John Means	53
48	Zach Eflin	49
49	Michael Pineda	42
50	Zach Plesac	38
51	Mike Minor	47
52	JT Brubaker	61
53	Shohei Ohtani	46
54	Alex Wood	73
55	Brady Singer	64
56	Matthew Boyd	56
57	Yusei Kikuchi	41
58	Patrick Corbin	50
59	German Marquez	51
60	Triston McKenzie	57
61	Jameson Taillon	58
62	Anthony DeSclafani	63
63	Andrew Heaney	68
64	Jordan Montgomery	62
65	Danny Duffy	NA
66	Jose Urquidy	65
67	Cristian Javier	93
68	Ryan Yarbrough	52
69	Ryan Weathers	NA
70	Matt Shoemaker	67
71	Corey Kluber	69
72	Taylor Widener	76
73	Taijuan Walker	78
74	Alex Cobb	72
75	Sean Manaea	79
76	Huascar Ynoa	77
77	Chris Bassitt	92
78	Logan Webb	81
79	Dallas Keuchel	74
80	Dylan Cease	75
81	Steven Matz	87
82	Chris Flexen	NA
83	Carlos Martinez	71
84	Robbie Ray	70
85	Spencer Turnbull	97
86	JA Happ	NA
87	Casey Mize	66
88	Dane Dunning	80
89	Kyle Gibson	88
90	Marco Gonzales	82
91	Luke Weaver	83
92	Adbert Alzolay	84
93	Justus Sheffield	85
94	Jake Arrieta	NA
95	Jordan Lyles	89
96	Drew Smyly	NA
97	Mitch Keller	91
98	Adrian Houser	94
99	David Peterson	95
100	Jeff Hoffman	96

Fell Off The List

Max Fried (Injury), Garrett Richards (Performance), Griffin Canning (Performance), Zach Davies (Performance), Tarik Skubal (Performance), Bruce Zimmermann (Performance).

If you like Nathan’s take on starting pitcher rankings, then you’ll also want to check out Eric Cross’s latest fantasy baseball waiver wire.

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