Week 11 has four teams and a multiple of players with impactful schedules or matchups that Fantasy owners need to consider before making their Start/Sit hitting decisions. Manny Machado is a high-profile name with a demanding ADP, but is he a starter in Week 11 with seven home games at Petco Park and Patrick Corbin, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Aaron Nola on the bump staring him down? We’ll also hit on a few noteworthy hot and cold batters for owners to be aware of in Week 11’s Hitting planner.
Week 11 Start/Sit Hitting Decisions
Scheduling Factors
The Chicago White Sox have a five-game slate this week while the Colorado Rockies come off a week at home with a week on the road. Fewer games at-bats matter in the case of White Sox batters while the Rockies have stand-out home/road splits to consider before hitting enter on Fantasy owners starting lineups.
The Chicago White Sox
Schedule: Two @Nationals – Three @Royals)
Pitching Matchups:
Stephen Strasburg/Anibal Sanchez/Brad Keller/TBA/Jacob Junis
The White Sox are the team hamstrung by a short five-game schedule in Week 11 and they’re all on the road. The concern for Fantasy owners is that they play two in Washington against the Nationals with Stephen Strasburg on the bump and three in homer-stingy Kansas City against the Royals. They are in a “Brown lining” situation of sorts. The majority of their lineup has played well on the road. Jose Abreu has hit seven of his 15 home runs away from home. Eloy Jimenez has hit a minimalist .174, but he has six home runs on the road and zero at home. A twist I didn’t expect. The sample is small – 69 road at-bats – diminishing how poor the batting average actually is while enhancing how impressive those six home runs have been.
Five-game weeks typically concern me, which is why I focus on them in this column each week, but the White Sox don’t have other reasons to be concerned. Strasburg has pitched well, but he’s the only above/average starter they’ll face and he isn’t someone to be avoided at all costs. Fantasy owners should make their hitting decisions the same way they would if the White Sox had seven games this week. The five-game schedule shouldn’t be overly concerning for owners.
The Colorado Rockies
Schedule: Three @Cubs – Three @Mets
Pitching Matchups:
Hendricks/Darvish/Quintana/deGrom/Matz/Syndergaard
Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story have hit wherever they go against whomever they face. They are Must-Starts regardless of what the matchups and splits may be. The rest of the roster isn’t so clear cut when making Start/Sit hitting decisions for Week 11.
Charlie Blackmon, OF
2019 Road Stats:
Two HRs – .238 Batting Average – .637 OPS
Sitting Blackmon on the road is a difficult argument to make under normal circumstances and with his return from the Injured List uncertain, it’s the safe play to let him come back and get acclimated before owners insert him back into lineups. Facing Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard on the bump when he is likely to return makes the case that much easier. Sit him in Week 11 and reload him rested and ready for Week 12.
Raimel Tapia, OF
2019 Road Stats:
One HR – One SB – .240 BA – .643 OPS
Tapia doesn’t deserve to be owned in anything but the deepest of leagues and most weeks he is a Fantasy afterthought, but I like his skill set and home field advantage, so I keep an eye on him. Week 10 was an “All Coors Field” slate and with four home field home runs, I liked his chances to contribute. He had six hits and scored eight runs. Not bad for a waiver wire starter.
Week 11 is another story. He faces a difficult group of starting pitchers and he doesn’t hit well or bring the pop outside of the friendly confines of Coors.
The Rockies have a variety of interesting names that I don’t seriously consider when they are away from Coors field and I can’t recommend this week. Ian Desmond can’t seem to find his groove, David Dahl is a guy Fantasy owners have been waiting on forever who still isn’t relevant while Daniel Murphy, even though he has hit three road home runs in only 55 at-bats, deserves 100 words regarding whether owners should cut bait, not Start/Sit.
Pitching Matchups To Consider
In daily fantasy sports, the day’s pitching matchups are everything. In rotisserie, they mean almost nothing. Weekly lineup leagues fall somewhere in between. Most week’s difficult lineup decisions are made based on left/right and/or home/road splits. Sometimes, whether a player has been hot or cold recently is an important factor when making decisions on the margins. And sometimes, the starting pitcher matchups ebb or flow heavily enough for the good or for the bad that it impacts a Start/Sit hitting decision.
Week 11, the San Diego Padres and Houston Astros are those teams. One for the good and one for the bad.
San Diego Padres
Week 11 Schedule: Three vs. Phillies – Four vs. Nationals
Starting Pitching Matchups:
Aaron Nola/Jerad Eickhoff/Jake Arrieta/Patrick Corbin/Erick Fedde/Max Scherzer/Stephen Strasburg
A good offensive player is a good offensive player, but when you face four “aces” or something close to it, it’s worth considering when making those tough Start/Sit hitting decisions. The Padres have a lot of viable Fantasy contributors, but they’re lacking in Must-Start ones. And, with the caliber of the starting pitching matchups this week, the Padres are loaded with difficult Start/Sit hitting decisions for Week 11.
Manny Machado, SS/3B
2019 Season Stats:
Nine HRs – One SB – .259 BA – .769 OPS
Machado ranks 18th amongst shortstops in standard points leagues while being tied for 12th in home runs and 18th in RBIs. I am throwing this out there not because I am advocating owners bench Manny Machado….yet, but because owners need to know that he isn’t having a typical “Machado” season.
In Week 11, he faces a more difficult group of starting pitchers than most with one of his “easier” matchups against Jake Arrieta. Four of this week’s starters had Average Draft Positions (ADP) of #4 (Scherzer), #25 (Nola), #47 (Corbin) and #59 (Strasburg).
His 2019 home/road and left/right splits don’t make a strong case for Machado as a Must-Start player either.
He has batted .240 at Petco Park with an OPS of .687, .31 points higher than Ian Kinsler. He is tied with Eric Hosmer for fourth in home runs on his own team for the entire season and he has only four at home.
Against right-handed pitching, of which he will face six in Week 11, he has three home runs, a .625 OPS and a .229 batting average.
Most owners in standard and deep leagues don’t have an alternative that would seriously challenge Machado for the start, but if you are in one of those leagues or are one of those owners that do, it isn’t insane to consider it. Difficult Start/Sit hitting decisions are determined by an owner’s alternatives and in the case of Manny Machado, he hasn’t been a Must-Start player so far this season. He has been more name than production. The position rankings show it.
Franmil Reyes, OF
2019 Season Stats:
16 HRs – .253 BA – .861 OPS
2019 vs. Right-Handed Pitching:
14 HR – .248 BA – .863 OPS
2019 Home Stats:
Nine HR – .228 BA – .829 OPS
Reyes has been the Padres most powerful hitter. He leads the team in home runs and leads outfielders in at-bats over the last 30 days. He isn’t losing time to the plethora of alternative outfielders that the Padres can throw out there and he is using the at-bats to produce for Fantasy owners.
He has been better both at home and against right-handed pitchers than left. Good signs, because he has seven home games against six right-handers in Week 11. He has been the Padres best batter and the splits enhance his case rather than hurt him. Even with the tough group of opponents on the bump, he is a Must-Start.
Eric Hosmer, 1B
2019 Season Stats:
Nine HRs – .296 BA – .806 OPS
2019 vs. Right-Handed Pitching:
Nine HR – .315 BA – .871 OPS
2019 Home Stats:
Three HR – .283 BA – .779 OPS
All of Hosmer’s home runs have been against right-handed pitching and while he has been slightly better, on average, at home, his splits have been fairly consistent.
Hosmer has been a Top 20 first baseman in standard points leagues and ranks in the Top 25 in home runs at his position.
Hosmer is a well above-average contributor to the batting average category and he hits right-handers for power in a week where he will face six of them. The matchups and the splits enhance Hosmer’s case for owners making tough Start/Sit hitting decisions this week.
Hunter Renfroe, OF
2019 Season Stats:
15 HRs – .253 BA – .861 OPS
2019 vs. Right-Handed Pitching:
12 HR – .244 BA – .885 OPS
2019 Home Stats:
Seven HR – .261 BA – .905 OPS
Renfroe is second on the Padres in home runs behind Franmil Reyes and he has done most of that damage against right-handed pitching. He has also been slightly better at home than on the road even though he has one fewer home run in 24 fewer at-bats, meaning the splits are in his favor this week.
The Padres pitching matchups are more difficult than average, but Renfroe, Reyes, and Hosmer have shown in 2019 that the splits are in their favor, while Manny Machado’s season suggests they are working against him for owners making difficult hitting decisions in Week 11.
Houston Astros
Week 11 Schedule: Four @Mariners – Three vs. Orioles
Starting Pitching Matchups:
Wade Leblanc/Yusei Kikuchi/Mike Leake/Tommy Milone/David Hess/Gabriel Ynoa/Dylan Bundy
The Baltimore Orioles (119 home runs allowed) and Seattle Mariners (108 home runs allowed) lead the league in home runs allowed and the Astros have the good fortune to have a seven-game slate with both on their schedule in Week 11.
David Hess leads the league in home runs allowed (19) and he has managed to do it in only 55 innings pitched. Mike Leake has allowed the second most (18), Dylan Bundy is tied for 13th most with 13 allowed and Yusei Kikuchi is tied for 25th with 11 gopher balls leaving the yard.
The Astros offense is loaded with Must-Start players, but with a schedule as friendly as the one they have in Week 11 Fantasy owners need to consider all of the less known, less viable options as well.
Josh Reddick, OF
2019 Stats:
Six Hrs – Two SBs – .314 BA – .815 OPS
2019 vs. Left-Handed Pitching:
39 ABs – Two Hrs – .385 BA – 1.095 OPS
Reddick isn’t flashy, but he does a little bit of everything and he has good ratios against left-handed pitchers in 2019 even though he is a left-handed batter. Finding borderline Fantasy starting batters who could benefit from friendly matchups on the Astros isn’t easy because of how loaded their offense is, but Reddick fits the description.
For owners in deep leagues or DFS players looking for cheap contrarian plays, Reddick is someone to consider, especially against David Hess and Mike Leake. He was active in only 41% of Fantrax.com Leagues this week.
Jake Marisnick, OF
2019 Stats:
Six HRs – Four SBs – .265 – .853 OPS
2019 vs. Left-Handed Pitching:
36 ABs – Two Hrs – .389 BA – 1.158 OPS
I am digging deep to find non-Must-Start Astros and Marisnick is way down low with only 7% of owners starting him in Fantrax.com leagues this past week.
Marisnick steals bases and hits for some pop and he has a lot of homer-prone pitchers on the bump this week. With Derek Fisher’s promotion, I am hesitant to recommend owners in weekly lineup leagues commit to him even though I believe Marisnick is going to see the majority of the at-bats with Correa, Altuve, and Springer all injured. For DFS players looking for discounts, punt and contrarian plays in tournaments, Marisnick is your poster boy.
NoteWorthy Knowledge
Each week I like to make note of hot and cold bats so Fantasy owners know who may be playing their way to relevance or potentially to the bench. Here are a few of them.
Hot Bats of Note
Renato Nunez, 3B Baltimore Orioles
14-Day Sample Size Stats:
15/43 – .349 BA – Seven HRs – 15 RBIs
Nunez has had hot stretches before and he is on another now. His home park is home run friendly and he was active in only 47% of Fantrax.com Leagues this week.
Max Kepler, OF Minnesota Twins
14-Day Sample Size Stats:
16/43 – .372 BA – Three HRs – 13 RBIs
The Twins are launching record numbers of home runs and Kepler has benefitted from being a part of it. He was active in 87% of Fantrax leagues this week while being owned in only 79% of Yahoo.com leagues.
Bryan Reynolds, OF Pittsburgh Pirates
14-Day Sample Size Stats:
19/48 – .396 BA – Three HRs – 10 RBIs
Who is Bryan Reynolds? He is owned in only 24% of Yahoo.com leagues and I couldn’t find how many leagues had him active on Fantrax.com. He should at least be on the radar in deeper leagues and has to be owned in NL-Only ones. He is the definition of Noteworthy… as well as a potential poster boy for small sample size irrelevance. Do with this knowledge what you will Fantasy owners.
Cold Bats to Be Aware
Lorenzo Cain, OF Milwaukee Brewers
27/108 – .250 BA – One HR – Two SB
During draft season I liked Cain’s profile as a player that provides home runs, stolen bases, and batting average. I felt even better about him because he is part of a deep lineup in a friendly hitters park, but he isn’t doing a lot of this season. Fantasy players that own him may want to consider benching him while owners that don’t may want to consider buying low. I’m not sold that Cain is this mediocre/bad going forward.
Ozzie Albies, 2B Atlanta Braves
26/109 – .239 BA – One HR – One SB
I like players that steal bases and hit home runs. Albies did them both in 2018. I don’t like inconsistency and he was that in 2018. Unfortunately, Albies has been more inconsistent than powerful or speedy for Fantasy owners in 2019.
Seven home runs and four stolen bases leave room to dream about a jump in both categories in 2019. But, I don’t like that the Braves have only attempted 32 stolen bases all season.
Also check out Mick Ciallela’s Rest of Season Rankings!
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