The 2019-20 NHL second half will be long past when our fantasy hockey seasons start again. In the past 9 months, we’ve had months of no hockey, the playoff bubble then a second months-long break. How well do you still remember how the second half ended? Even players who were focused in might have missed or forgot that stretch run.
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Do you remember who finished hot in the second half?
It is convention fantasy wisdom that you cannot base projections on hot second halves, or any small samples. A hot finish, however, is one piece of data to consider for your 2021 plans, though. Sometimes a second half jump is a product of new deployment or a player figuring something out. Here are 7 players whose late-season heroics you might have missed entirely or forgotten already.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C/LW, EDM
“Nuge” finished December with a reasonable 24 points in 36 games. Mostly centering a line of James Neal and a rotating cast on his other wing he seemed headed for his career norm pace of between 55-65 points. Instead, a shakeup of lines put him with Leon Draisaitl and Kailer Yamamoto for the second half of the season. Nugent-Hopkins scored 37 points in 29 games in 2020, 5th most in the NHL over that span. Nugent-Hopkins is the subject of extension rumors which hopefully will leave him paired with one of the team’s two superstar centers over the long haul. He took 3 shots, threw half a hit and blocked half a shot per game. At 27 he comes into the season with dual eligibility. If you are not rating him higher than last preseason, you need to catch up.
Dominik Kubalik, LW/RW, CHI
To be honest, most hockey fans know Kubalik broke out last year. He made 1st team all-rookie and went off for 8 points in 9 games in the bubble, helping spark the 12 seed Blackhawks’ surprising upset of 5th seeded Edmonton. Kubalik’s end of season line doesn’t do justice to his performance though. Once the Blackhawks paired him with Jonathan Toews in December, Kubalik took off.
For the year, Kubalik managed 46 points in 68 games. In his first 39 games, however, he scored only 18 while from January he managed 28 points in 29 games, laboring on a Chicago team lousy enough to be parked in 12th of 15 in the West at the stoppage. He will get a ton of helium this winter and might even earn it if he can keep Toews in touch with the fountain of youth. Beware the inflated 30 goals on 19.1% shooting.
Mike Hoffman, LW/RW, FA
We all know Mike Hoffman is plugging away in obscurity down in Florida. His final line of 59 points in 69 games was a carbon copy point pace to the prior year, his first as a Panther. What may be missed, however, is how those points clustered into the second half of the season. 32 of those 59 points came in the 30 games he played in calendar year 2020, while Hoffman managed only 27 in his first 39 contests.
Hoffman is an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Ordinarily I would caution a shake up to Hoffman’s deployment could result in a loss of production, but it would be tough shake Hoffman’s lines more than Joel Quenneville did last year. Hoffman played 850 minutes at even strength this season. Of those minutes, he was lined up with 8 different forwards for 100 minutes or more. For a fifth straight year Hoffman chucked more than 3 shots per game. During two years in Florida he has averaged 13.9% shooting. Do not forget Hoffman among the elite wingers, especially if he lands in a better situation than he had in 2019-20.
Mikael Backlund, C/RW, CGY
Mikael Backlund is a 31 year old defensive center who has pushed his scoring above 50 points once in his career. Even dedicated fantasy players may have missed Backland’s point-per-game second half. After a mere 17 points in his first 48 games of the season, Backlund had 28 in his final 28, summing to a deceptive 45 on the year. A player who slips that low in the rankings was likely on most waiver wires well into his hot streak. The two halves of the season add up to a typical year. He especially took off at the end of the year centering Matthew Tkachuk. While you cannot count on Backlund to repeat his second half feat, it certainly should have gotten your attention.
Dylan Larkin, C, DET
Dylan Larkin did not live up to the 5th/6th round 12 team ADP he enjoyed last year. An overall 53 points in 71 games likely disappointed drafters after his nearly point-per-game 2018-19. I frequently say I love the players on markets out of the spotlight. Yes, lesser linemates hurt overall point production. On the other hand, time on ice, usage and power play deployment are precious on any of the 31 NHL franchises. Larkin’s second half featured 28 points in 30 games, leading me to wonder if the 2019-20 first half might have been the greater anomaly. The 2019-20 Red Wings were historically inept, which should not be blamed on their best player. More than 3 shots per game with decent hits and blocks as well as the 7th-most faceoff wins in the NHL count for something.
Kevin Fiala, LW/RW, MIN
Minnesota got away with rank theft trading Mikael Granlund for this guy. As a booster of Granlund’s I never expected that to be the case. Fiala might be 4 years younger than Granlund, but in 3 full years in the NHL he had never cracked 50 points while Granlund played at a high-60s point pace his last seasons in Minnesota. 24 points through 36 games in Minnesota this year already promised a payoff for the Wild, but 30 points in 28 games from January 1 were spectacular. He will miss Eric Staal, the Centerman for his best stretch of the year now traded to Buffalo. Minnesota goes into the season with imported third-linish centers Marcus Johansson and Nick Bonino and new winger competition in hyped rookie Kirill Kaprizov. Fiala will need to stick in a good role to thrive like last year, but I will not underestimate him again.
Juuse Saros, G, NAS
I could choose Jonathan Bernier for the shock value or Elvis Merzlikins for the rookie excitement. Instead, let us talk about Nashville’s eternal goalie-in-waiting Juuse Saros. 18 of his 34 starts came after the first of the year. Saros was 5th in Fantrax’s second half goalie algorithm. That meant a .934 save percentage and a 2.22 GAA. He finally earned the playoff nod in the bubble over Pekka Rinne. Rinne’s expected goals saved above expected was 83rd of 85 teams this year while Saros was above average. If Saros comes into the season a bit more the 1A than the 1B, 2021 might finally be the year you don’t drop Saros in week 3.
If you want to prepare for the upcoming fantasy hockey season, you should be listening to my podcast “Fantasy Hockey Life” here on Fantrax. With cohost Victor Nuno and great team expert guests, we are breaking down the NHL with a podcast episode on each of the teams.
Does your league have an interesting way to decide a champion this season? Let us know in the comments below.
For more help in getting ready for next season, check out the Top 10 Fantasy Hockey Rookies of 2021.
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