No gloating, or victory laps. I’m simply going to say James Conner’s NFL Week 2 was much closer to what I had in mind for him in Week 1. Hi. Welcome to Monday’s Musing, my weekly column here on the HQ. This is only my second edition, so still laying the foundation for what the format is and will continue to be. If you have any suggestions, please share. Without you, there would be no this, so we kind of need each other.
Speaking of foundations, I just spent an incredible evening at one of my reader’s homes arguing the validity of Ancient Aliens. He is a friend who just happens to have read the first installment of this column, but I thought it sounded much cooler to simply refer to him as a reader, because I do fashion myself as a man of the people (hence the nickname).
‘Foundations’ is relevant because he just unveiled the remodeling of the home he bought, and rebuilt from the foundation (gorgeous, I should add). Kind of like what my goal is for this column. Kind of like what you’re hoping for your fantasy teams. After two weeks, how do you feel about the foundation you drafted? To recap, I type notes to myself while watching NFL RedZone (scroll to bottom for full stream of consciousness), and then wait for a theme(s) to reveal itself.
https://twitter.com/PatriotsDH4life/status/1041489465934536705
Last week we touched on not overreacting after one game (see James Conner), and allowing trends to build.
Week 2 made just as little sense as Week 1 did, reminding us how, week to week, you can make all the predictions you want, but they still have to play the games.
One trend that is continuing to build is Patrick Mahomes being the quote, unquote, real deal. Currently, he is on pace to throw 80 Touchdown passes in 2018. He became one of only three* players to throw four TDs in a season opener, only to tell himself to hold his own beer and toss six more in the encore.
Will it happen? Can one human being keep up this tremendous abundance of offense, much less a second-year player with one career game under his belt?
The odds are severely against him. But, I wouldn’t rule anything out. Especially when you consider all of the weapons he has at his disposal.
Not to be outdone, Ryan Fitzpatrick (also one of those three to throw four touchdowns – although he could be the fourth, I’m really not sure, but loosely citing a statistic that flashed on the screen on RedZone) was completely on his game again this week as well. I do a weekly radio spot for an Atlanta station and just the other day labeled him as the best and most ideal backup QB in the league.
However, with performances like this (another 4 TDs), it may be Jameis Winston who will be deserving of that title. Even if he falters, or for some odd reason returns to the bench unprompted, he has proven to have mastered the post-game presser. Something often under-mentioned about players is how they fit into locker rooms. Fitzpatrick’s electric play aside, he has always won over the room, in whichever city it’s been in (seven, and counting). I can only strive for the same camaraderie with those of you still reading.
Bucs QB Ryan Fitzpatrick reveals his new look was borrowed from Desean Jackson. Fitz had to cut his news conference short because Jackson was waiting in the wings without a shirt…needing his clothes back 😂MUST WATCH pic.twitter.com/trM676SClc
— Kevin ODonnell Fox13 (@ODonnellFox13) September 16, 2018
I’m almost to the main storyline this week, but before I get to Kickers: The Ugly Truth, let me first give some numbers. (If you checked in last week you will know I claim no responsibility for this to be a stat driven presentation, but inevitably, some will seep in).
Le’Veon Bell: 62 career starts, 42 team wins; James Conner: 2 career starts, 0 team wins. Entering Sunday Night, there have only been seven players this season with 100 yards rushing or more in a game (Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, James Conner, Isaiah Crowell, Tevin Coleman, Phillip Lindsay, Matt Breida), and of that, only two were first round fantasy draft picks .
I note this because I was a big proponent in 2018 of going RB early, but for the #ZeroRB crowd, that number offers a lot of support. Passing continues to not just be up, but way up.
Through the first two weeks in 2017, there were a total of 36 players who had 80 yards receiving or more in a game. Of that, only 11 eclipsed 100-yard performances.
Through the first two weeks of 2018, that number has climbed to 58 players with over 80 yards, and a whopping 33 who have gone for over a buck.
Only 4 times in NFL history has a WR been targeted 200 or more times in a season; Rob Moore 1997 (208), Herman Moore 1995 (206), Marvin Harrison 2002 (205), and Calvin Johnson 2012 (204). As of now at least four players are poised to not only join that club, but set new records. Antonio Brown (pace for 264 targets), Michael Thomas (240), Golden Tate (224), and Juju Smith-Schuster (216) aren’t showing any signs of slowing up. Most interesting of that quartet is Juju of course, who is second fiddle on his own team (and with good reason)! I get that it’s still early, but something to monitor when you consider the ilk of those mentioned. Alright, onto the extra point!
Antonio Brown (17) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (19) combined for 36 targets, or more than half of Ben Roethlisberger's 60 pass attempts.
— Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) September 16, 2018
Kickers: The Ugly Truth
Kickers are becoming more like Closers in Baseball, where the good ones spoil you and make it seem easy. It is not. Ask Daniel Carlson. Ask Zane Gonzalez. Then look at Adam Vinatieri, and his successor in New England, Stephen Gotskowski, and you feel like you’re looking at the Mariano Rivera of legs.
But seriously, kickers are already an endangered species in fantasy. Are we getting into the territory of them being ostracized from the real life game as well?
The last pick in the NFL Draft is playfully referred to as “Mr. Irrelevant,” because nothing is truly expected of him in his professional career. It is the reason leagues have downsized the number of rounds in their respective Drafts. The NFL Draft, currently at seven rounds, was once a 30-round affair!
Just like “Mr. Irrelevant” in real life, fantasy drafts by and large don’t start taking Kickers until the last round or so, if they haven’t already banned them that is. When we do select a Kicker, it really is like playing “Pin The Tail on The Donkey”, only the adult version, where in addition to spinning around several times you’ve also consumed several cocktails. We guess who we think the higher scoring teams will be, putting their lower limbs in situations to succeed for our fantasy squads. Much like we do with Closers in Baseball!
But at the end of the day, it is so arbitrary which kickers actually get opportunities on any given Sunday. And that’s just for P.A.T.s! I’m not even talking about the triple-word score Field Goals.
So in the real world the curse of Cleveland continues, because of a Kicker. And after two weeks we have two ties, again, because of a Kicker. I can only imagine how many fantasy owners have either wins or losses, you guessed it, because of a Kicker.
Fantasy leagues can certainly withstand the omission of the position, but could the real world make do without them as well? I wonder.
And then, to close out the afternoon slate, the whole world watches as the Broncos come from behind at home to secure a one-point victory on the strength of Brandon McManus’ foot from 36 yards away. And it is at that point you realize the benefits of having kickers. They keep hope alive.
Keep my hope alive, and leave a comment below with anything that triggered a thought in this week’s offering. And don’t forget to meet me back here next week (but only if you enjoyed this week, of course). Keep reading for a timeline of my thoughts as Sunday unfolded, and thank you for your time today.
Where's Roberto Aguayo when you need him?! #Browns
— Andy Singleton 😤 (@PeoplezPen) September 16, 2018
NFL Week 2 Scrapbook:
- DJax – revenge game
- Feel bad for everyone who overpaid for Travis Kelce
- Feel happy for everyone who underpaid for Jordan Reed
- Nice to see Captain Andrew Luck make ESPN
- Browns Defense is better than the Offense
- Gregg Williams vs Hue Jackson/Todd Haley
- Who is this Eric Ebron character?
- Mike Williams looks beastly
- What a fake on the punt by Tennessee!!
- Great camera angle on Allison blocked punt for Pack
- Kamara on pace for 100 touches
- And no one would be mad at that
- Ok, Kelce on the board – finally
- Maybe the worst pass of Brees’ career missing Ben Watson
- Laquon Treadwell sighting
- I have no clue how the Bills will win one game this season
- And that’s not a knock on Allen
- Knock out pool players pay attention
- Drake doing the Jet in New York is going to come back to bite him
- Have AB playing, while at the same time playing against him
- Patrick Mahomes is having Deshaun Watson’s 2017 season
- Pittsburgh Offense?
- Le’Veon Bell: 62 Starts, 42 Wins
- James Conner: 2 Starts, 0 Wins
- Dirty hit on Cam
- Love Torrey Smith fighting back for him
- Cam always seems to get his team into fights with division foes
- Austin Ekeler is good for Melvin Gordon
- Steelers Defense needs to show up
- Christian McCaffery is never going to be the rusher everyone wants him to be
- Jarius Wright at the back end of my WR rankings this week. But he was in!
- I would not want to go across the middle against Jamal Adams
- Reputation is already spread thru league
- Danny Amendola in some serious pain
- It’s pronounced Da-neil, but Danielle is so much more fun to say
- Colts backfield looking as unpredictable as the Patriots
- Calvin Ridley runs great routes
- Best WR2 Ryan has had since Julio Jones (Roddy White)
- Corey Clement is just explosive
- Albert Wilson getting out of KC was good for Albert Wilson
- Could be Ty Hill lite
- DiBari was so wrong on Juju
- Amazing consistency as a WR2
- OJ Howard is a different level of overall production at the Tight End position
- Welcome to the Melvin Gordon show!
- How does DeAndre Hopkins get open like that?
- Godwin moving into starting consideration
- Where is Jay Ajayi?!
- Pederson you promised!
- Week of the Tight End
- Pitt starting to wake up. Receiving game is elite
- I’d love to see the Browns end in a tie again
- So weird to see a player “will be released” while trades are attempted
- How much Darnold can come back will be telling
- Jay Ajayi sighting
- Welcome to Green Bay Jimmy Graham
- Scratch that and return the Lambeau Leap
- Beautiful ball from Fitz to Evans
- Early MVP: Mahomes or Fitzpatrick?
- Only two QBs in history to open season with back to back 4 TD passes
- Zane Gonzalez throw-in for Josh Gordon trade?
- Tap Dancing Mike Thomas
- Welcome back Will Fuller
- And Deshaun
- Mahomes on pace for 72 passing TDs
- Mike Thomas is the new AJ Green
- Capt Andrew Luck on Gameday was a giveaway! Biggest upset of Week 2
- Antonio Callway has 1st round talent
- Bigger upset than Colts
- And then came Zane Gonzalez
- Where’s Roberto Aguayo? Anyone have his number?
- Who’s more cursed: Hue Jackson or the Browns
- Make that an 80 game pace
- A scoring frenzy in the closing statements of 1pm Week 2 games
- Zane Gonzalez with a shot at redemption
- Deshaun Watson has to know the clock better. Could have scrambled out of bounds for FG distance
- 2nd straight week Houston has ended game with Watson needing a miracle down by a score
- Cam is so confident and calm
- What a catch by Thielen!!
- The Pack just got payback for the Kyle Fuller drop
- Best 0-2 team?
- Worst 2-0 team?
- It’s amazing how effective the T.O. is before a game winning FG
- What a crazy week for Kickers. Too much importance in the game?
- Keelan Cole amazing catch
Ready to amp up your Fantasy Football prep even more? Check out The Fantasy Black Book Show, where Joe Pisapia, Scott Bogman, and The Welsh bring the goods every week.