Saturday, April 23 NBA Player Props
Betting lines are an excellent way to predict fantasy points. Using game totals and betting spreads can forecast whether a game will be a shootout, or if your player might suffer from a blowout. This can be very useful when creating DFS lineups.
Player Props give an even closer look at a player’s projection. They are also a very fun way to engage in a game in which you would otherwise have no interest. Player Props, by nature, have a higher level of variance than the main markets, so we want to wager slightly less, and it is imperative that we find the best line. Otherwise we are losing money in the long run. Make sure to shop around at multiple sportsbooks for the highest level of long term success. Here are my favorite Prop bets for Saturday’s playoff action. Let me know on Twitter if you are tailing or fading these picks @benleier.
Dorian Finney-Smith U12.5 Points (+100)
Dorian Finney-Smith averaged 11 PPG during the regular season, a more representative sample, given that Luka Doncic will play on Saturday. The Mavericks had to spread the ball around on offense without Doncic, and Finney-Smith benefitted from a +1.8% usage boost in game to to score 14 points. I’m backing the under on this bet because DFS doesn’t get much usage in this offence to begin with, and with Luka back, he will need to be uber-efficient from long range tonight to cover this line. This prop should be priced closed to -145, so +100 on BetMGM is great value.
Donovan Mitchell U4.5 Rebounds (+115)
Donovan Mitchell averaged 4.2 rebounds per game during the regular season, so statistically this bet is closer to a 49-51% proposition, meaning that the +115 price at bet365 provides tons of value. The Jazz playa very fast-paced style, so the regular season numbers are less predictive in this series. Dallas is a slower paced time that likes to operate in the half-court, so most of the rebounds will be soaked up by the Rudy Gobert and the bigs for both teams. Mitchell had two boards in each of the first two games.
Kevin Durant O43.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)
Kevin Durant averaged 43.8 P+R+A in the regular season. KD played with foul trouble in Game 2 he should benefit from home court advantage on a one or two 50-50 calls, which could push us over the hedge for this prop. This is a regression-based bet, as he has posted just 30 and 36 PRA in the first two games of this season. KD is a tactical offensive player, and similar to a pitcher’s third trip through the batting order in baseball, its just a matter of time before the Celtics give up a home run against KD. -105 on Bodog is great value for this bet that should be priced closer to -140.