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NBA Player Props for February 1, 2023

We have a large slate in the NBA on Wednesday featuring nine games. That means there are plenty of player props available for the taking. I expect some additional value to become available throughout the day, so keep up with the latest news. In the meantime, here are a few spots that jump out to me. As always, tail responsibly and let’s start the month out right!

NBA Player Props for February 1

Alperen Sengun OVER 6.5 Assists/Triple-Double

Alperen Sengun will be back in the lineup after missing Houston’s last game due to an illness. Sengun has become the focal point of and main facilitator in Houston’s offense in recent weeks. Sengun has at least six assists in nine straight games, dishing at least seven assists in six of those nine games. In January he averaged 18.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game. But those numbers improve with Jalen Green and Kevin Porter off the floor. In January, with both Rockets’ guards off the floor, Sengun averages 19.8 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per 36 minutes. Green and Porter will both be out of action on Wednesday.

The matchup against Oklahoma City is a great one for big men who can pass the ball. The Thunder have allowed four triple-doubles to opposing centers already this season. No other team has allowed more than two. In fairness, two of the four triple-doubles the Thunder allowed were to Nikola Jokic, and there is certainly no shame in that. But they have also allowed Joel Embiid and Domantas Sabonis to post triple-doubles against them this season. I would not be surprised if Sengun, who had triple-doubles of his own in January, joined this group. This stands out as one of my favorite player props for tonight, and I have a specific plan on how I want to play it.

What I am proposing is a two-pronged wager of sorts. Sengun should be about even money to record at least seven assists on Wednesday. That means for every dollar you risk, you would get a dollar back. If your standard bet size is $10, I would suggest putting $8 of that $10 towards Sengun recording over 6.5 assists. I would then take the remaining $2 and put that on him to post a triple-double. The triple-double portion should pay out at around a 6-1 rate. That means you would make $12 off of your $2 bet. If he does in fact record a triple-double, you would triple your money as opposed to doubling up by simply playing the assist line. Also, you can customize a triple-double on some sportsbooks, which often increases the payouts as opposed to the lines that the books post themselves. The more you know…

Jaylen Brown OVER 6.5 Rebounds

Jaylen Brown averages 7.2 rebounds per game this season and has surpassed this number in exactly 60 percent of his games. He has been especially effective on the glass in recent weeks. In his last six games, he is averaging 8.7 rebounds and has had at least eight boards in five of the six. It should be noted that three of those six games have gone into overtime. However, in only one of those three games did he have fewer than eight rebounds heading into the extra period. If you remove the three overtime periods completely, he is still averaging 8.0 rebounds per game over this recent stretch. In addition to Brown’s recent form, he has a favorable rebounding matchup against the Brooklyn Nets.

Brooklyn is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. They rank 29th in the league in offensive rebounding percentage and 27th in defensive rebounding percentage. The Nets have not rebounded their opponents in any of their last eight games. Further compounding their issues on the glass is that Ben Simmons will be out for this game. He and Kevin Durant are two of Brooklyn’s top three rebounders, both averaging well over six per game. Brooklyn will likely trot out a lineup that features the likes of Seth Curry and Cam Thomas at the shooting guard position. The pair combine to average 3.4 rebounds per game in 37 minutes. Neither will be able to keep Jaylen Brown off the boards in this matchup.

Tobias Harris OVER 14.5 Points

I have not seen a points line posted for Tobias Harris as of yet. However, these two teams played on Monday night, and this was the number I got for that game. I am running it back at this number, and I am fine playing even if it is a point or two higher. Harris seems to go out of his way to torment his former team. Monday’s game was the seventh consecutive game in which he has scored at least 17 points against Orlando. He has now reached that number in 16 of his last 19 games when facing the Magic.

I should mention that though Harris did score 17 points on Monday, it was a very uneven performance from both him and the 76ers in general. Harris scored just three points after halftime, and Philadelphia was outscored by 20 points in the second half. I still think the history and matchup are favorable enough to trust Harris despite how Monday’s game ended. If we get a price that is less than favorable for Harris to score at least 15 points, I would suggest pairing it with the Philadelphia money line to sweeten the odds a bit. The 76ers have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA over the past six weeks or so. I think what occurred in the second half of Monday’s game was a little fluky, and I believe Philadelphia will be on their A-game on Wednesday.

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