The MLB DFS Weekend Planner is back for the 2022 season! After a long lockout and a short Spring Training, we finally have MLB DFS back in our lives this year. There’s absolutely nothing better than diving into the data, the matchups, and the ballparks to build some daily lineups.
This season, this weekly piece will look ahead to each MLB DFS weekend through a few different lenses. We can’t cover every possible matchup or salary so this macro view will cover the schedule, the weather, ballparks to fade and stack, and the best offenses and pitching staffs of the weekend. At the end, I will give my thoughts on an underrated bat and arm that look to have favorable circumstances over the coming days.
Let’s dive into the MLB DFS Weekend!
MLB Weekend Schedule
The “Probable Pitchers” grid at Fangraphs is always a fantastic resource for looking ahead at the MLB schedule. Here is the weekend at a glance. As we will look at in the Weather section, below, just about all of these should see good baseball conditions during the holiday weekend.
You can see, we have Coors Field, Dodger Stadium, and Yankee Stadium in play this weekend, which gives an advantage to certain types of hitters. More on that in the Ballparks section of this column.
MLB Weekend Weather
Presently, the rain looks like it will stay away from games this weekend. A few parks, like in Seattle and New York, show very minor chances of showers, but nothing that would cause any significant impact as of Friday morning. Check back each day, however, to make sure the forecasts haven’t changed.
Wind looks like it could be something to monitor in Coors Field. Gusts could be in the 18-20 mph range, which (depending on the direction) could make a great hitter’s ballpark a downright carnival for offense this weekend.
Weather for this weekend’s games and for any MLB game can be found at Swish Analytics or any number of MLB tracking sites.
Best Pitching Parks
|Park||Offensive Park Factor||HR Park Factor|
|T-Mobile Park (SEA)||30th||16th|
|Petco Park (SDG)||26th||18th|
|loanDept Park (MIA)||23rd||22nd|
Best Hitting Parks
|Park||Offensive Park Factor||HR Park Factor|
|Coors Field (COL||1st||5th|
|Camden Yards (BAL)||4th||2nd|
|Progressive Field (CLE)||9th||15th|
|Guaranteed Rate Field (CHW)||12th||4th|
Data courtesy of Baseball Savant
Best Offenses to Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers (vs, CIN) – The Murderer’s Row 2.0 offense gets home dates against some truly suspect Reds’ pitching this weekend. Even against Tyler Mahle on Sunday, the Dodgers should be able to provide some power, especially from the left side of the plate.
The Dodgers face four straight righties this weekend, which means Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Gavin Lux, and yes, even Cody Bellinger all get bumps in production projections this weekend. Dodger Stadium has been the seventh-friendliest park for lefty home run power over the last three years, according to Baseball Savant. The Dodgers are going to be expensive up and down the lineup this weekend, but it will certainly be worth it.
Chicago Cubs (@ COL) – I’m not sure what more needs to be said. Coors Field with the wind potentially blowing out? What’s not to love? To add some fuel to the offensive fire, the Cubs will face Austin Gomber and Antonio Senzatela, arguably Colorado’s two worst starters.
The Coors Field tax on this lineup will likely be a tough pill to swallow, but the Cubs were projected for 5.3 runs on Thursday and it’s sure to be that high throughout the weekend. It cheaper guys like Clint Frazier, Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel (all much better on FanDuel) are starting, those are your stacking partners with Seiya Suzuki.
Best Pitching Staffs
New York Yankees (vs. BAL) – The Orioles get lucky by not having to face Gerrit Cole this weekend, but that might not matter considering the Orioles lead the majors with a 30.4% strikeout rate through their first week of play. Not only are the Orioles striking out at an alarming rate, but they aren’t mashing the ball when they do make contact. Their .299 slugging percentage so far is 29th in the league.
The good news on DFS sites for Jordan Montgomery, Jameson Taillon, and Nestor Cortes is that none of them are likely to be prohibitively expensive. First up is Montgomery who was just $7,800 on FanDuel in his first start against Boston. He will surely get a bump up from that salary, but it won’t be in the upper stratosphere like some pitchers, and he should be very affordable if you are trying to fit in expensive bats.
Philadelphia Phillies (@ MIA) – Moving away from the park with the sixth-highest offensive park factor (Citizens Bank Park) to the one with the 23rd-highest should be a huge benefit to an already great Phillies’ rotation this weekend. The Marlins are lined up to face Zach Eflin, Ranger Suarez, and Zack Wheeler this weekend, and all can take advantage of the Marlins’ free-swinging ways.
Through the first week of the season, Miami is seventh with a 26.4% strikeout rate as a team ad their on-base percentage is a paltry .264. Also helping Philadelphia is the fact that Miami ranks 23rd in walk rate and should look for contact rather than getting on via the free pass.
Underrated Weekend Bat
Mike Yastrzemski (OF, SFG) – Yaz gets an incredible slate of matchups for his skill set this weekend and gets to move to a park in Cleveland that is 16 spots better in offensive park factor than his home in Oracle Park. Lefty Yastrzemski should bat leadoff three straight games, all against marginal right-handers.
Even though it isn’t showing in the batting average yet, his hard-hit percentage is a career-high 45.5% through the first week of the season and he typically mashes right-handers significantly more than lefties. For his career, Yastrzemski has a .254/.336/.509 slash line against right-handers and a .249/.328/.444 line against southpaws. In a weekend littered with good hitting options, the Giants and their left-handed bats will likely be under-rostered. Don’t forget about Yaz and Brandon Belt when building your lineups.
Underrated Weekend Arm
Alex Manoah (SP, TOR) – Manoah was a cautious yellow light for most in the DFS world in his first start in Yankee Stadium against their high-flying offense. All he proceeded to do in that matchup was allow no runs over six innings and strike out seven batters. He also gave up just one hit and while the four walks were a problem, he still went six innings on less than 90 pitches.
This weekend he gets Oakland at home. And while the Athletics have a surprising winning record so far, they are sixth in the league in strikeout rate and only possess a team .303 on base percentage. This looks like another game where Manoah should give us 7+ strikeouts and a win propelled by Toronto’s offense facing Adam Oller.