Friday night’s MLB DFS main slate is highlighted by a couple of games in ideal hitting conditions (although one with rain chances) and some top-end pitchers in odd spots. On DraftKings and FanDuel, a ton of roster percentage should focus on one or two pitchers with many others as legitimate options in the second tier. There are also several paths to a potential tournament-winning hitting lineup depending on how you choose to stack certain games. Once again, how we choose to handle the New York Mets and Colorado Rockies game in Coors Field (assuming it plays) should go a long way to determining how we perform on this slate.
If you have any thoughts or recommendations for how we can better cover MLB DFS in 2023, reach out to us on Twitter or send me a message (@CableBoxScore). I’m always happy to talk a little DFS throughout the day, and let’s win some slates together! Let’s start by looking at weather issues for Friday as well as the best hitting and pitching environments on the main slate.
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MLB DFS Picks and Plays for May 26
Today’s analysis covers the 12-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel at 7:05 PM ET.
- There is a chance of rain in Colorado for the Mets-Rockies game at 8:40 PM ET. This is a significant piece of news to watch because much of the offensive strategy of the slate revolves around this game.
Best Hitter’s Parks:
- Coors Field
- Yankee Stadium
- Angels Stadium
Best Pitcher’s Parks:
- Oakland Coliseum
- T-Mobile Park
- Kauffman Stadium
DraftKings Top Plays
Kevin Gausman ($10,300) vs. Minnesota Twins – The Twins have some dangerous spots in their lineup, of course, but they have really been a bad offense overall. They have the highest strikeout rate in the league (26.1%) and are bottom-10 in on-base percentage. Gausman has had a rocky last few starts but has at least nine strikeouts in three of his last five games.
Reid Detmers ($7,700) vs. Miami Marlins – It was a lot of good and some bad in Detmers’ last start. He struck out 12 batters, but still walked three and allowed three earned runs in 5.2 innings. But, he reached 100 pitches and the 12 punch-outs were a career-high coming into this game against the Marlins. Sure, the Marlins scored 23 runs in Colorado over the last four games but they scored only 11 runs in the four games prior to that series.
Pete Alonso ($5,700) vs. Connor Seabold – Assuming this game plays in Colorado, the Mets are set up to absolutely smash for three days. Despite a low .203 BABIP, Alonso still has a .538 slugging percentage and an 11% walk rate (plus a huge bomb on Thursday night). Seabold allows 1.71 HR/9 innings per game this season, and Alonso will have the best-implied odds of all Mets to homer on Friday.
Brett Baty ($3,400) or Mark Vientos ($3,300) vs. Connor Seabold – Both of these dynamic rookies are third-base eligible for the Mets on Friday, and the good news is both might find themselves in the starting lineup. Baty has gotten most of the reps at third while Vientos has been the DH in four of his five starts since his call-up on May 18th. If Daniel Vogelbach starts at DH against a righty on Friday, he is also a bargain at $2,700.
Yordan Alvarez ($6,000) vs. James Kaprielian – Yordan Alvarez has a .420 on-base percentage and a .558 slugging percentage against right-handers, so I’m not really sure what more evidence we need to start him even in a tough park. Kaprielian is giving up over six walks and 1.9 home runs per nine innings this year, and my money is on Alvarez getting one of each on Friday.
Michael Conforto ($3,400) vs. Freddy Peralta – Peralta can be a shutdown force or he can be completely erratic and homer-prone. Which version we will get remains to be seen, but Conforto is in a good spot (with a good salary) if we get the bad version. After a year missed with injury, Conforto is back to swatting home runs and getting on base. He has a .440 slugging percentage against right-handers this season and an OBP 100 points higher than against lefties.
Best DraftKings Stack
New York Mets vs. Connor Seabold – The Mets have a top-ten OBP against right-handed pitchers this year and have really been on an offensive ascent lately. They projected starting lineup in Coors Field features players from $5,700 down to $2,700 and can be stacked any number of ways with those salaries. Lefties Brandon Nimmo ($4,900), Jeff McNeil ($3,900), and Vogelbach ($2,700) make for a cheap, all-left-handed stack.
FanDuel Top Plays
Hunter Brown ($10,300) vs. Oakland Athletics – Hunter Brown checks in as the fourth-most expensive pitcher on the FanDuel slate Friday night, even though he might have the best matchup. He gets a big park upgrade going from Minute Maid Park to the Oakland Coliseum. He also lines up against a team with the 29th-ranked OPS against right-handed pitchers. Brown also has at least eight strikeouts in back-to-back games.
Matthew Liberatore ($7,700) vs. Cleveland Guardians – You don’t often see a starting pitcher in a great matchup like this cost $7,700 on FanDuel, but Liberatore is in a weird situation right now. The Cardinals can’t seem to decide if they want him as a starter or a reliever. But he gets the call on Friday against a struggling Cleveland offense. They now have the worst team slugging percentage in the league and the 29th-ranked on-base percentage.
Francisco Lindor ($3,900) vs. Connor Seabold – Lindor took the entire game on Thursday, but he finally got involved in the rout of the Cubs. It was indicative of his whole season, which started out very slow but has been picking up lately. From May 14 to May 22, Lindor hit .314 with a .486 slugging percentage. He has struggled the last three games, but there is no place like Coors Field and no matchup like Connor Seabold to get him back on another hot streak.
Alex Bregman ($3,000) vs. James Kaprielian – Bregman has been hot lately with nine hits in his last eight games plus six runs and five RBI. His average, on-base, and slugging have all been much higher against right-handers than left-handers this season. For a player batting second against one of the worst pitchers in the league, Bregman’s salary is simply too low.
Aaron Judge ($4,500) vs. Joe Musgrove – Joe Musgrove has completely fallen off a cliff this year, and now he is going to tumble right down onto a red-hot Aaron Judge. Musgrove’s biggest problem this year is the homerun ball, as he is allowing 2.25 per nine innings. His HR/FB rate is the highest of his career and Musgrove’s flyball rate is almost 10 percentage points higher this season than his career. Judge, of course, has been mashing lately, with six home runs in his last nine games.
Kyle Tucker ($3,300) vs. James Kaprielian – Kyle Tucker kills right-handed pitching this year to the tune of a .341 OBP and a .420 slugging percentage. Tucker’s batting average is also 30 points higher on the road this year and his slugging percentage away from Minute Maid Park jumps up to .476.
Best FanDuel Stack
Houston Astros vs. James Kaprielian – The Astros and Rockies will have the highest implied run totals on Friday when all is said and done, but the Astros overall just remain too cheap on FanDuel and they are very easy to stack. Only Yordan Alvarez is above $3,300 and they will have at least five batters in their lineup under $3,000. Kaprielian’s 8.68 ERA would be more than a run and a half higher than the worst pitcher in the league if he were eligible and he gives up almost two home runs per nine innings.