The Surgery
Matt Harvey underwent surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS) in 2016. This surgery is a bit more involved than one might guess. For the full description, click here. In short, most of the first rib and portions of muscle near the neck are removed to decrease compression of nerves/blood vessels. For a quick peek, here is a four-second animation of the surgery here. Return to sport is less likely compared to Tommy John surgery, but it can be done. Jamie Garcia and Mike Foltynewicz are prime examples of success after TOS surgery.
Harvey’s Biggest Problems
Harvey saw his average velocity dip before the surgery in 2016 from 96 mph to 94.5 mph. This was likely a sign that a problem was brewing (nerve compression). After surgery, his average velocity dipped down to 93.8 mph.
Harvey could still ramp it up to 97-98 and did so at times in May of 2017. Overall, though, his fastball consistently lacked punch, and hitters took advantage.
The Nerve-Muscle Connection
The problem with nerve injuries s is that they take a very, very long time to heal. Although he was symptom-free, Harvey had very little chance to succeed, and his fastball velocity bore evidence of that.
One might think of a nerve as a connection from point A (the brain) to be point B (the muscle). While technically correct, it is more accurate to say it’s like a connection from point A to Points B-Z.
A principle that works against a rehabbing athlete is efficiency. What I mean is that the body is amazingly efficient. It wastes nothing, so when I pick up a weight, I may utilize only 60% of the nerve/muscle connections. The minimum amount needed to get the job done. Training increases the amount and the precision of nerve/muscle connections used to perform a task. As we train, consistently taxing the connections more and more, the body recruits more and more nerve/muscle connections. I may begin to use 70-75% of the nerve connections and can lift more weight despite not increasing my muscle mass.
A pitcher coming back from a nerve injury relies on the same process. And as I mentioned before, it takes a very long time. While rehabbing improves these nerve/muscle connections, injuries do the opposite. Each injury takes its toll, and the body protects itself by shutting down these nerve-muscle connections when an injury is present to prevent unnecessary damage.
The Outlook
Harvey’s nerves have now had enough time to recover. Unfortunately, cumulative injuries, including TOS and TJ appear to be too much for Harvey. Definitively, I can’t say if Harvey can or cannot make it back, but I do know that he’ll need to consistently sit at or above 94 mph to be the pitcher he was before surgery.
Through three spring training appearances, reports suggest he’s unable to maintain 94-95 mph for more than an inning or two. His ERA sits at 5.59, and his K/9 is a paltry 4.7. (Credit to Eno Sarris for reporting on Harvey’s velocity.)
There is no cost to Matt Harvey on draft day, but I’d take a flier on another pitcher. If moved to the bullpen, he could return to fantasy relevance. Until then, however, he faces an uphill battle that he is losing from a medical perspective.