We are at the point in the season where you should have a good idea of who belongs in your starting lineup each week. Whether the player is simply dominating, has the numbers to support the start, or is due for a big game, your lineup locks are justified. For the players you may be on the fence about, you may be searching for reasons to love or hate them for the week ahead. With playoff seeding or a spot in general on the line, it’s important to sort it all out before Sunday. That’s where I can help.
Sometimes you don’t have many choices as the bench options on your roster become scarce. If you do have options, though, I believe what I have to say about these players that I love and hate will help put you in a position to win your week. My track record, thus far, is pretty spot on as I continue to hold myself accountable, review each list every week on Twitter (@Colin_McT) and improve week-to-week! Let’s take a look at who deserves to start and who you should consider sitting this week.
Players I Love and Hate in Week 13 of the 2022 Season
Love: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s not every week that I have a player repeat on the Love or Hate list. Trevor Lawrence is a rare exception. After posting his second-best fantasy score of the season, I think Lawrence will continue his hot streak in Week 13. He is averaging 22.95 points in his last two games. I love Lawrence to meet or exceed that point total in Detroit on Sunday.
The Detroit Lions are allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. In addition to allowing the seventh-most passing yards this season, the Lions are also tied in allowing the fourth-most passing touchdowns. More importantly, Detroit has allowed an average of 45 rushing yards on just under seven rushing attempts per game to opposing quarterbacks. Additionally, they lead the league in rushing touchdowns allowed (6) to the position. Lawrence is 12th amongst quarterbacks in rushing attempts this season, though tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns scored.
Jacksonville should have no problem scoring against the Detroit Lions. They continue to allow the most points per game. With that said, I love Lawrence to move the ball with ease this Sunday racking up fantasy points along the way. He has a great chance to punch in one himself on the ground in this matchup which increases his ceiling. If you are looking to replace Kyler Murray this week in shallower leagues or are simply on the fence between Lawrence and another option, I’m giving you the green light to plug Lawrence into your lineup.
Some Extra Love:
Marcus Mariota is set up nicely for a bounce-back performance in Week 13 after justifiably making my Week 12 Hate list. He takes on the Pittsburgh Steelers who are one of three defenses this season allowing an average of two passing touchdowns per game, the highest average in the league. Mariota’s dual-threat capabilities, and the Falcons’ strong run game, opens up opportunities in the passing game. With a fantasy-friendly matchup for quarterbacks, I love Mariota as a strong streaming option or cost-efficient Daily Fantasy Sports option this week.
Hate: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
This Sunday will be exactly 700 days since Watson played in a regular season football game. Maybe not so coincidentally, Watson is making his return to football against his former team, the Houston Texans. Aside from my own personal interest in seeing the Texans win this game, I don’t believe it’s a particularly good matchup for Watson for those willing enough to plug him into their fantasy football lineups.
With such a lengthy absence from the field, there is bound to be some rust to shake off for Watson. In addition to a lack of rapport with Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and other Browns pass catchers, Watson himself hasn’t thrown meaningful passes in game situations or taken live hits from opposing defenders in some time. That will take some getting used to.
The biggest football-specific reason that I hate Watson this week is the matchup. Yes, it’s a revenge game narrative, but the Houston Texans are abysmal against the run. They are allowing the most rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Enter Nick Chubb who is the league’s third-leading rusher this season. Given Watson’s absence and a choice matchup for Chubb, I think the Browns’ game plan centers around handing it off to their lead back and letting him do all of the work.
Love: Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
There are plenty of running backs with choice matchups in Week 13, but one that fantasy managers may be questioning is Pacheco’s in Cincinnati against the Bengals. Last week, Cincy held Derrick Henry to just 38 yards on 17 carries. Unusually enough, Henry logged more than double the amount of receiving yards (79) on just three receptions. However, the week prior, Najee Harris found the end zone twice on the ground in addition to his 90 yards on 20 carries against the Bengals.
The matchup between Kansas City and Cincinnati is an AFC Championship rematch from last season. These are two very good, complete teams. Kansas City specifically is averaging the most points per game this season (29.6) as well as the most points per game on the road (35.2). That said, regardless of the matchup, Pacheco serving as the lead back still holds tremendous value.
Pacheco’s role is ever-expanding, as well. He accounts for 72.5% of the Chiefs’ running back carries since their Week 8 bye and 78% of the carries in their last three games. His 22 attempts in Week 12 are career and season-highs. Pacheco’s five carries inside the five-yard line on Sunday were three more than the amount he had in total from Weeks 1 through 11. Though the team did just sign Melvin Gordon, Pacheco should maintain his high-volume role at least for Week 13.
Some Extra Love:
Dameon Pierce is in a bit of a slump as far as fantasy football goes. After a seven-game streak of double-digit fantasy points, with an average of 17.17 points per game, Pierce is averaging just 4.15 in his last two. You can run on the Cleveland Browns, though, and Pierce is going to do just that in Week 13. Pierce accounts for 76% of the Texans’ rushing attempts this season. He is a volume-based play that I love to finish as an RB1 against a Browns team allowing the second-most points to running backs that include the second-most rushing touchdowns to the position.
Hate: Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
Devin Singletary is averaging just 13.4 rushing attempts per game in five games since the team’s Week 7 bye. He’s only topped 14 rushing attempts in one of those contests. Meanwhile, quarterback, Josh Allen, is averaging nearly seven attempts per game of his own in that same span. James Cook also has nine more carries in the Bills’ last five games than he did in their first six. I hate Singletary for Week 13 as his piece of the pie continues to get smaller.
Up next for the Bills is a road matchup with the division-rival New England Patriots. Their defense is their identity this season. They’re allowing just 18.4 points per game this season and just 13.0 per in their last three. That’s with factoring in the anomaly of letting up 33 in Minnesota last Thursday. As it relates to Singletary’s outlook, New England is notorious for allowing just one rushing touchdown to running backs this season. He feels more touchdown dependent than usual for Week 13 and I hate his chances of finding the end zone in this one.
Love: Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
This isn’t the first time I’m mentioning Zay Jones on the Love list this season. Following his best fantasy performance of the season (27.5 points) last week, I think it’s important to urge fantasy football managers to start him again in Week 13 if they believed last week was a fluke. Jones’ big game is possible to repeat this week against the Detroit Lions, and even next week against the Tennessee Titans.
In 11 games this season, Zay Jones has seen 10 or more targets in three of them. Though Christian Kirk has six more receiving touchdowns than him this season, Jones has two more receptions on just 12 fewer targets in one less game played. He is just as valuable as an option for Trevor Lawrence in the Jags’ passing game.
The Over/Under line for Jacksonville’s Week 13 road trip to Detroit is a whopping 51.5 points. It’s going to be a high-scoring affair especially since the Lions allow the most points to opposing teams in the league. That includes the fourth-most points to wide receivers in fantasy football. I still prefer Kirk if I’m choosing between the two, but Zay Jones belongs in lineups, this week especially.
Some Extra Love:
Olamide Zaccheaus and the Atlanta Falcons will head to Pittsburgh against the Steelers who are tied for the most-allowed touchdowns to wide receivers this season. In Week 12, Zaccheaus not only led all Falcons with eight targets (33% share), but is also just one of two wide receivers to see a target on the offense. Now, Cordarelle Patterson is technically a running back, drawing five of his own, but Zaccheaus’ role in the absence of tight end, Kyle Pitts, is notable. He is an upside play for deeper leagues as well as a cost-efficient DFS play.
Hate: Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders
Curtis Samuel has 17.1 PPR points combined from Weeks 10 through 12. That’s the exact number of points he scored in Week 9 alone. I hate Samuel’s chances of bouncing back in Week 13 as the Commanders travel to New York in an NFC East battle with the Giants.
It’s Washington’s last game before their Week 14 bye. After their bye, they will face the Giants again in Week 15. New York’s defense is tied for the second-fewest number of touchdowns (6) allowed to wide receivers this season. Additionally, Samuel’s target share continues to decrease week-to-week. He didn’t see a single target against the Atlanta Falcons last week and teams are targeting their wide receivers against them at the second-highest rate.
Samuel’s role with Taylor Heinicke under center is just not what it was compared to his role with Carson Wentz. He is seeing nearly five less targets per game since Heinicke took over in Week 7. Given the decrease in volume and tough matchup two games in a row, with a bye in between, I hate Samuel for the next three weeks. If you need to make room on your bench, managers can send Samuel to fantasy football free agency.
Love: Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders
Like Trevor Lawrence (above), I’m keeping Foster Moreau on the Love list for the second week in a row. He remains an integral piece of the Raiders’ offense with Darren Waller on the Injured Reserve. Given the Raiders’ probability of missing the playoffs, I doubt we see Waller again in 2022. Even then, Moreau is a matchup-based streamer at the tight end position. This week he gets the Los Angeles Chargers which is a matchup fantasy managers should love.
The Chargers are allowing the third-most receiving yards to tight ends. That’s even more significant since teams are targeting the position at just the sixteenth-highest rate against L.A.’s defense. With just four touchdowns allowed through 11 games to tight ends, Moreau’s ceiling may seem capped in Week 13. However, the Chargers are likely going to be busy trying to put a stop to Josh Jacobs in the run game. That should open up the passing game a bit more.
Moreau is averaging 5.5 targets per game since Vegas’ Week 6 bye. His role for the Raiders as of late gives him a boost over most others at tight end. Even if he doesn’t find the end zone, I love Moreau to eclipse the 61-yard average the Chargers are allowing to the position per game. I think he’s a lock for another double-digit fantasy performance in Week 13. That will cement him inside the top-10.
Hate: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
After landing inside the top five at the position in Week 12, there is too much working against Henry for Week 13 which lands him on my Hate list. For starters, he is playing on a short week. The Patriots will meet the Bills for the first time this season. In two games against Buffalo last season, Henry caught just two of 10 targets for 39 total scoreless yards.
The Buffalo Bills are one of two teams yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a tight end this season. Assuming that streak continues, Henry has just a 10.6% target share with the Patriots this season. There simply isn’t enough volume to bank on if he’s not going to find the end zone. The good news, though, while I hate Henry this week, he will have extra rest before taking on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14. They’ve allowed the most touchdowns to the position this season.