Neither Patrick Corbin nor Kyle Gibson ranks among the top 10 starting pitchers in Roto value, but in a particular way, each is having an exceptional season. Prior to this year, there had been only one qualified starting pitcher this decade who threw fewer than 35 percent of his pitches in the strike zone, and that was Francisco Liriano back in 2014. For someone with unusually poor control, Liriano was surprisingly relevant to fantasy, as he struck out 175 batters in his 162.1 innings and compiled a 3.38 ERA for the Pirates. However, his value was limited due to his 7-10 record and 11.7 percent walk rate, the latter of which contributed to a 1.30 WHIP. Both Corbin and Gibson have stretched the limits of wildness to similar extremes, but they have found a higher level of success than Liriano did.
Like Liriano, circa 2014, Corbin and Gibson have a Zone% below 35 percent, but both pitchers have been better than their predecessor at getting hitters to chase their errant pitches. Liriano’s 32.9 percent O-Swing% was impressive, but Gibson has outdone him with a 33.4 percent rate, and Corbin’s rate of 36.9 percent is the eighth highest of the decade. It has also helped that Corbin has induced swinging strikes at an elite 14.7 percent rate, and Gibson’s 12.1 percent rate is robust as well. Corbin and Gibson may not be among the very best fantasy starters, but their respective ranks of 14th and 45th among starting pitchers have made them fantasy mainstays.
Corbin and Gibson have been in a class of their own as effectively wild starters, and if his six starts prior to Monday night’s outing against the Phillies are any indication, Zack Godley (34.4 percent Zone%, 42.5 percent O-Swing%, 16.4 percent SwStr%, 2.64 ERA 29.7 K%) is about to join or even surpass them. Each of these pitchers has been a fascinating story this season, but two other pitchers have quietly embarked on a similar path in recent weeks.
Derek Holland is owned in only 37 percent of Fantrax leagues, and Trevor Richards is even more widely available, as he is currently owned in just 28 percent of Fantrax leagues. Both have been among the top 40 starting pitchers in Roto value over the last 30 days and they have achieved their success in spite of — or perhaps because of — an aversion to locating their pitches in the strike zone.
Stretching the Limits of Wildness: Derek Holland, Giants
Last seven appearances, including four starts (26.1 innings): 38.9 percent Zone%, 41.9 percent O-Swing%, 15.7 percent SwStrk%, 2.05 ERA, 29.4 percent K%, 5.9 percent BB%.
Over this relatively small sample of innings, Holland has not been quite as wild as Corbin, Gibson, and Godley, but with a K-BB% of 23.5 percent, it’s hard to believe that he has had any control issues at all. Not only has Holland been exceptional at getting swings and misses, but over this recent stretch, he has compiled a 20.3 percent called strike rate that is more than three percentage points above the major league norm. The combination of exceedingly high whiff and freeze rates has given the lefty the ability to pile up strikeouts while avoiding walks, even while having only a perfunctory relationship with the strike zone.
Holland made a dramatic change to his horizontal release point in a June 20 start against the Marlins (see below), and while that coincided with improvements in his whiff and freeze rates, it wasn’t until more than two weeks later that he hit an even higher gear. That’s when Holland became less of a strike-thrower, and he started throwing with slightly greater fastball velocity — and not just in his relief appearances. Through his first 17 starts, he averaged 91.4 mph on his fastball, and in each of his four subsequent starts, Holland has averaged anywhere between 91.8 and 92.8 mph.
With Johnny Cueto having had Tommy John surgery last Thursday, Holland appears to be firmly entrenched in the Giants’ rotation. It is impossible to know if he will maintain his recent changes in release point, location, and velocity, much less the improved strikeout and walk rates that have apparently resulted from them. Nonetheless, Holland needs to be owned in far more leagues until he shows that the ride has come to end.
Stretching the Limits of Wildness: Trevor Richards, Marlins
Last six starts (32.1 innings): 36.1 percent Zone%, 33.2 percent O-Swing%, 10.6 percent SwStr%, 2.23 ERA, 25.7 percent K%, 10.3 percent BB%.
Richards’ uptick in performance coincides even more neatly with a change in his approach. Ever since his July 3 start against the Rays, the Marlins’ rookie has thrown his changeup with greater frequency. Prior to that outing, he threw his changeup at a 23.9 percent rate, but in each start since, he has throw it at least one-third of the time. Cumulatively, his usage rate is up to 38.2 percent over his six most recent starts.
Over the course of the season, Richards has thrown his changeup in the strike zone just 35.0 percent of the time, but he has induced swings on his changeups that are not in the zone at an astounding 50.2 percent rate. (For a basis of comparison, that’s a higher rate than those of Zack Greinke, Jacob deGrom, and Chris Sale.) As shown in the heat map below, Richards has been able to get hitters to chase after his changeup when it’s below the zone or on his pitching arm side of the strike zone.
In most of his recent starts, Richards’ increased reliance on his changeup has enabled him to record roughly a strikeout per inning while keeping his walk total to two or lower. However, a seven-walk performance against the Nationals shows the potential perils of relying on chases for success. In that July 8 outing, Richards’ O-Swing% was a mere 28.8 percent. He may have learned from the experience, because in a subsequent start against the Nationals, Richards had no problem throwing strikes, locating in the zone at a 44.0 percent rate. The end result was far better, as he held them scoreless over six innings, tallying eight strikeouts while walking only two batters.
Richards has not mastered the art of effective wildness on the same level that Corbin, Gibson, and Godley have, but it’s hard to argue with his recent results. If he is unowned in any mixed league with at least 15 teams, he needs to be added right away. If Wednesday’s home start against the Cardinals goes well, you just might miss the window to add a useful starter for your stretch run.
Statistical credits: FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, Brooks Baseball. Roto rankings courtesy of ESPN’s Player Rater.
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