As the calendar flips to September, playing time is set to get a bit more diluted. Fortunately, the guys we are going to discuss here today should be safe in that regard (setting aside injuries…we’ll get to that). While Miguel Andujar has been questionable at best on defense, I think the Yankees have to be pleased with what he’s done with the bat. Eddie Rosario is entrenched in the outfield, despite the Twins going into full-on sell mode here in the second half. He’s been chilly at the dish though, so let’s take a deeper look at these fine American League hitters.
Fire – Miguel Andujar
Baseball is increasingly a young man’s game. Players like Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto have given us plenty to talk about this year. Those guys are in the National League, however, and Miguel Andujar has had an efficient enough campaign to garner plenty of consideration for AL ROY honors. It has also been fun listening to folks try to pronounce his last name as though his parents derived their name from opening jars for a living. It can be downright…jarring.
Andujar’s first half was pretty solid for a 23-year-old, slashing .279/.316/.489 with a 17.4% walk rate. He hit 12 bombs with 27 doubles and scored 42 times, despite hitting exclusively in the bottom half of the lineup. No one was complaining about anything offensively, aside from perhaps a below-average 4.7 BB%.
Cut to the second half, however, and Andujar has really come alive. Aaron Boone has even been seen prancing around the dugout doing his best Gene Wilder impression. Over 38 second-half games, Andujar is slashing .344/.363/.609 with 10 homers. He has nearly matched his first-half total of 39 RBI with 35 in fewer than half as many games. This has plenty to do with Aaron Boone pushing him up to third, fourth, or fifth in the order in every game since August 10th.
Granted, his spot in the lineup is likely to tumble when Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge weasel their way back into the lineup. In any case, those numbers are good enough to give him the 14th best wOBA in MLB over the second half of the season. So what has he changed to unlock this new hitting prowess?
His plate discipline remains largely unchanged. While he’s cut a minuscule 1.6% off his strikeout rate, he is walking in just 2.5 percent of his trips to the dish. That number is the fifth lowest in baseball over the second half. Low-walk hitters don’t typically hit for much power; just don’t tell that to the number six hitter on that same list, Jonathan Schoop. A major lack of walks is always a turn off for me, but I’m willing to be patient with Andujar since it’s his first season.
His hard contact and pull rates are essentially unchanged from the first half, so we find no answers there. He is scorching 25-percent line drives (up from 18% in the first half), which accounts for a fair bit of his .359 BABIP since the All-Star break. He’s made good contact (82%) on the year, so when you are hitting hard line drives, that will fuel a plus BABIP as much as anything.
The power, on the other hand, doesn’t fully add up. His HR/FB rate shot up from 13.8% in the first half to 22.7% in the second. Considering most things that feed into that metric (fly ball rate, hard contact rate, pull rate) have remained static, this boost is entirely unwarranted. You could (and I daresay I would) argue that he was a bit unlucky on HR/FB in the first half, but a rate north of 20% is something I can’t agree with.
We are looking at a mighty fine young hitter here. While his future is most likely at a position easier to play than third base, his combination of contact ability and power will play anywhere. He has even hit right-handed pitching better than lefties this year, which is uncommon for many young right-handed hitters. While the home run rate is likely to pull back, he’s in a stacked lineup that will support his R+RBI totals, and he’ll continue to hit for average. There is no reason not to roster him in every league for the duration of the season.
Ice – Eddie Rosario
Things haven’t been quite so rosy lately for a man that Twins players like to call “Rosie”. Eddie Rosario had a breakout first half of the season, spanking 19 homers with 24 doubles and a .311 average. In the 36 games since then, Rosario has batted just .242 with seven doubles and three home runs. The bloom, it seems…has fallen off the rose.
First, a caveat. As I pen this (with a keyboard) Rosario was lifted from his most recent game with a leg injury. It’s possible this requires a trip to the DL. Or worse, he just sits out a bunch of games since it’s September and there isn’t much of a DL. In that scenario, you don’t even know when he’s back. That’s one of the most frustrating parts of our game. Not only has he been battling a quad issue for a while, he has also played through shoulder issues over the second half. Perhaps that plays into the numbers we are about to see.
It could also be that the following two things are related and playing into his decline. Eddie Rosario has always been hack-happy, swinging at pitches out of the zone early and often. He has commonly been among the league leaders in O-Swing%, which is not a category you want to lead.
Last year Rosario made a concerted effort to swing at fewer bad pitches, dropping his O-Swing% to a career-best 37.6%. He started the year off well as you can see, but over the second half, he has reverted to his bad-pitch-chasing ways.
While his chase rate rises, it’s little surprise that his hard contact rate has dipped. It’s a lot harder to make solid contact on pitches outside of the zone. Even though Eddie is pretty adept at it, as far as hitters go, it’s not a great recipe for success.
The injuries provide some optimism by pessimism. By that oxymoron, what I mean is that his lingering injuries could have him trying to overcompensate. Shoulder injuries in particular are power sappers, so perhaps he’s trying to just do too much to get back in the groove. Unfortunately, it’s hard to say whether that’s something that he can correct over the final couple of weeks. If you are in a shallow league of 10-12 teams, you can probably find someone to fill in until he potentially rights the ship. If you’re in a deeper league, you’re most likely crossing your fingers and hoping for the best.
Nathan Dokken is a member of the FSWA and has been featured on numerous radio shows, podcasts, and magazines. He is the host of the Nasty Cast and Fantrax Dynasty Baseball podcasts, and his written work can be found at Razzball and Fantrax HQ. He is on Twitter @NathanDokken.