We’re already a quarter of the way through the hockey season, and now’s the time to start evaluating whether teams and players can maintain their early-season production. There have been a lot of surprises so far. Brent Burns is in a historic scoring slump, the Vegas Golden Knights might actually be good, 37 players are at a point-per-game pace or more, and the Edmonton Oilers, Montreal Canadiens, and Arizona Coyotes aren’t playing to their potential. These are all examples of early trends that probably won’t last the entire season. Of course, there’s always a chance they will last, which is why it’s important to dive into the six questions below.
Are the Vegas Golden Knights for real?
The Vegas Golden Knights have been by far the most surprising team in the NHL this season. Vegas is 14-6-1 and currently first in the Pacific division. They’ve been doing this with Maxime Lagace, their fourth-string goalie, starting most of their games. They’ve also been really good on the offensive side, as they are second in goals per game with an average of 3.7 goals. They currently have 10 players with 10 or more points. William Karlsson leads the team with 13 goals and 22 points. David Perron leads the team with 13 assists. Jonathan Marchessault has the best point-per-game pace with 21 points in 19 games. James Neal, Reilly Smith, Erik Haula, Colin Miller and Nate Schmidt are really coming into their own, as well.
This is all encouraging for Vegas considering they weren’t trying to compete this year. It’s good to know that a lot of these guys are ready when given the chance. Pretty much every player will be an unrestricted free agent in the next two years. As a result, this could give the Golden Knights an opportunity to sell some of these players before the trade deadline. Since the Knights had the choice of taking every team’s eighth-best player, it gave them a big advantage over other expansion teams in the past.
The Golden Knights’ success will largely be determined by how good Marc-Andre Fleury is when he returns. If Fleury can get back to his previous form, then the Knights might be a legit playoff contender and probably shouldn’t sell all these players. However, there is a real possibility that the Golden Knights will eventually come down to earth. That said, they are off to a good start, which could keep them in the discussion for a wild-card spot.
Can the Montreal Canadiens and the Edmonton Oilers come back?
At the start of the year, everyone had high hopes for both Montreal and Edmonton. Connor McDavid was ready to be the next Wayne Gretzky, and Cam Talbot was on his way to being an elite goaltender. The Canadiens are always in contention with Carey Price in net, and they added an offensive weapon in Jonathan Drouin. Now, it seems both teams need to turn things around quickly if they want a chance to make the playoffs. Not saying it’s impossible, but it’s unlikely.
The Canadiens have 21 points in their first 24 games, which puts them in sixth in the Atlantic division. Drouin has been decent, as he leads the team with 15 points. Montreal has struggled on both the offensive and defensive side. However, there are bright sides to both. The Canadiens have the second most shots per game in the league with 35.6, so the good news is that the goals should come. This makes the Canadiens’ forwards good buy-low candidates, especially Max Pacioretty and Brendan Gallagher. On the defensive side, Carey Price has returned from injury. Before getting injured, he was having his worst season by far. Even with a shutout on Saturday, Price has just a .890 SV% and a 3.44 GAA in 12 games. On the bright side, Price has looked good in his return, an indication that he may be back to his old form. This is obviously good news for Montreal because they need him to play at an elite level if they are going to salvage their season.
The Edmonton Oilers have 20 points in 24 games, and they are seventh in the Pacific division. Most of the Oilers’ problems have to do with not having enough forward depth, especially on the wing. Connor McDavid has 29 points. They also have Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who have 19 and 17 points, respectively. However, these are all centers. Their best winger is Milan Lucic, who has 15 points. To make matters worse, ex-Oilers Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall are having no trouble scoring with their new teams. Last season, most of the Oilers’ success was due to three players: McDavid, Draisaitl and Cam Talbot. All three could be doing better. Obviously, McDavid has not been bad, but Draisaitl and Talbot need to pull their weight. The good news is that they are in the Pacific division, which is usually weak. But they are in a deep hole right now and will need both Draisaitl and Talbot to get going if they want a chance at the wild card. Both Draisaitl and Talbot are good buy-low candidates for this reason.
Are the Arizona Coyotes actually this bad?
The Coyotes are so bad that they are in a different category than the Oilers’ and Canadiens’ disappointing seasons. While not super surprising, the Coyotes are the worst team in the league by far. They hadn’t won a game in regulation until their 20th game. Arizona is currently 6-17-3 and have 15 points. The Coyotes made a lot of moves in the offseason, most notably bringing in Antii Raanta, Derek Stepan, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Jason Demers through trade. They also have a lot of young players in Clayton Keller, Max Domi, and Christian Dvorak. This made the Coyotes a popular sleeper pick to take the next step this season.
Despite this, the Coyotes still have a lot of things to be happy about. The team has picked it up as of late, as they have won four of their last six games. Derek Stepan has a six-game point streak, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson has a five-game point streak. Clayton Keller has 11 goals and 20 points in 26 games, which puts him third amongst rookies. However, a lot of their struggles are largely due to the goaltending. The Coyotes are last in the league in goals against per game with 3.6. To be fair, Antii Raanta has missed a lot of games due to injury but has been pretty good with .914 SV% in 13 games played.
There’s no doubt that Arizona is not going to make the playoffs. However, they are not this bad, especially if Antii Raanta can stay healthy, and it looks like they are starting to get their groove. Even if they do remain the worst team in the league, they will get the best chance to draft a generational talent in Swedish defensemen Rasmus Dahlin, which isn’t a bad place to be.
What’s going on with Brent Burns?
Last season, Burns had 29 goals and 78 points. He was basically another forward on your roster. This made him not only the second-best defenseman to own, but it also made him a high first-round pick in all drafts. Now, Burns has only one goal in 21 games so far this season. It hasn’t been all bad, as Burns has 88 shots on goal, the most of any defenseman. This is proof that the Norris trophy winner has been extremely unlucky the first 20 games. The goals should come. It should be noted that Burns scored his lone goal on Friday, so he might be heating up. He also has nine assists, which is decent but definitely disappointing for a first-round pick. Surely, he’d have to go on a ridiculous pace to get 29 goals or more this season. But all that matters now is whether he can help fantasy teams for the rest of the season, and it looks like he might. If he does, then he will be worth that first-round pick.
Which of the 37 players who have a point-per-game pace won’t by the end of the season?
If you don’t count players who had one point in the only game they played, there were nine players who had a point per game last season. As of November 26, there are 37 players this season. Now, it’s still early, and scoring has clearly gone up. But 37 is still a lot of players. I’d speculate that Josh Bailey, Anders Lee, Brayden Schenn and Jaden Schwartz will all have breakout seasons but finish with fewer than 82 points. I’m always cautious when these players are playing with elite talent like Vladimir Tarasenko and John Tavares. It’s unclear if Bailey and Lee would be this good without Tavares, and the same goes for Tarasenko with Schenn and Schwartz. As I mentioned earlier, I also expect Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson to come down a bit once the Vegas Knights start to fall off. I would sell high on all these players, but only if you can get a consistent 60+ point player. I could see 15 players keeping this pace, which is a lot but fewer than 37.
In terms of who will likely keep the pace, I think we can project that Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Johnny Gaudreau, who have been out of this world, will each get to 82 points, assuming they all remain healthy. Also, Connor McDavid, Patrick Kane, John Tavares, Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Ovechkin, Erik Karlsson, and Auston Matthews are all elite players and are definitely capable of maintaining this pace. Pay attention to Leon Draisaitl, Jack Eichel, Niklas Backstrom, Sidney Crosby and David Pastrnak. They aren’t on a point-per-game pace right now but very well could at season’s end.
Will Connor Hellebuyck keep this up?
Despite signing Steve Mason to a two-year, $4.1 million contract, it appears that the Jets had their starting goalie in their system all along in Connor Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck has a 12-2-2 record with a .929 SV% and 2.33 GAA in 18 games played. Among starting goaltenders, he is sixth in GAA and fifth in SV%. There have been three games in which Hellebuyck has allowed five goals. The only real concern for Hellebuyck is that he hasn’t played this well in the past. Last season, Hellebuyck had .907 SV% and 2.89 in his first season as the starting goalie. Steve Mason has also picked it up lately, with a .954 SV% and 1.50 GAA in November. That said, Mason is now sidelined due to injury and might not be back for a while. If Hellebuyck can remain consistent throughout the season, then the Jets will be one of the elite teams in the league, considering they also have one of the best forward groups in the league and a formidable defensemen core, as well.