The two big news stories coming out of Week 8 were the denial of Ezekiel Elliott’s request for an injunction and the trade of Jay Ajayi from the Miami Dolphins to the Philadelphia Eagles. Elliott will likely begin serving his six-game suspension beginning in Week 9, giving fantasy owners some tough decisions to make going forward. As of right now, Elliott is out until Week 15, which is Semifinal week in most fantasy leagues. It’ll be tougher to reach the semifinals without Elliott, who is tied with Todd Gurley for the second-most fantasy points among running backs. As for Ajayi, he’s been pretty terrible this season. Taken in the second round of many fantasy drafts, Ajayi is just the RB31 on the year. Among the running backs Ajayi is behind are a rookie who hasn’t seen the field since Week 4 (Dalvin Cook) and a rookie who saw the field for the first time in Week 4 (Aaron Jones). Perhaps the change of scenery and an improved offensive line will do Ajayi some good as we head into the season’s second half.
This will be an interesting week for many fantasy owners. There are some elite running backs who will have byes this week. If Elliott indeed sits, four of the top seven year-to-date fantasy running backs (and the top four running backs over the past four weeks) will be out of action. There will be quite a few running backs in Week 9 lineups who have spent the majority of the 2017 season on fantasy benches and waiver wires. The good news is that there are exploitable matchups to be had. The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers are the only teams in the bottom half of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs who have a bye week. Let’s see which matchups to take advantage of and which to avoid in Week 9.
FAVORABLE MATCHUPS:
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons – Since Week 1, Christian McCaffrey has averaged ten rushing yards per game. No, that is not a typo. Ten yards per game. And yet, he currently ranks as the overall RB21 in fantasy. Welcome to 2017. McCaffrey is a glorified receiver, as a ridiculous 83.7% of his fantasy points have been accumulated via the air this season. Luckily for us, he’s still considered a running back for fantasy purposes. McCaffrey likely won’t produce much on the ground in this matchup, but he won’t have to in order to hit value. McCaffrey’s Carolina Panthers will host the Atlanta Falcons in Week 9. Atlanta has allowed the most receptions per game to running backs in 2017, after holding that distinction in 2016 as well. McCaffrey leads the Panthers in targets and receptions. Carolina’s recent trade of wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin only increases McCaffrey’s stable role in the Panthers’ passing attack. Christian McCaffrey is an extremely safe RB2 in Week 9, and may very likely become an RB1 for the first time in his young career.
Orleans Darkwa, New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams – Orleans Darkwa began to emerge as the New York Giants’ running back to own prior to the team’s Week 8 bye. Darkwa had totaled 31 fantasy points over his last three games. His 221 rushing yards during that period were ninth-best in the NFL. This week, the Giants will host the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams’ 2017 resurgence is not due to their rushing defense, despite the presence of All-Pro DT Aaron Donald. The Rams have surrendered seven rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, trailing only Indianapolis in that category. They’ve also permitted four top-seven finishes already this season to enemy running backs. With the Giants’ sporting a weak and inexperienced receiving corps, they would be better served to rely on a balanced offensive gameplan if they want to pull out a victory. I expect Darkwa to have a healthy workload in Week 9, which should lead to a low-RB1/high-RB2 finish.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars – Joe Mixon took advantage of a favorable matchup to post an RB2 (RB20 overall) finish in Week 8. He just didn’t do it in the manner in which one would expect. Mixon had just 18 rushing yards but managed to salvage his day on the strength of 91 receiving yards, including a 67-yard catch and run which highlighted his playmaking skills in the open field. Mixon and the Bengals will face the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9. Jacksonville has allowed an NFL-worst 5.2 yards per carry and 138.6 rushing yards per game in 2017. With Jacksonville shutting down opposing passing attacks at a rate rarely seen in recent years, Cincinnati would be wise to feature Joe Mixon in this game. Mixon should be able to make a big play or two against Jacksonville’s vulnerable run defense. I consider Joe Mixon to be a solid RB2 with RB1 upside in this matchup.
UNFAVORABLE MATCHUPS:
Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks – Chris Thompson has arguably been the biggest steal of fantasy drafts this season. Selected as a late-round flier in the majority of leagues, Thompson is currently the overall RB8. Week 8 was just the second time this season that Thompson did not finish among the top-15 at the position in a given week. Unfortunately, life won’t get much easier for Thompson in Week 9 as he faces the Seattle Seahawks. Despite Thompson’s incredible success, he still hasn’t done a whole lot as a runner this year. Just 34.3% of Thompson’s yards have come in the running game. Thompson does the majority of his damage as a receiver. However, Seattle has allowed just 28 receptions and 194 receiving yards to opposing running backs in 2017, tied for the best in the NFL in both categories. Thompson has also fumbled the ball three times in his last four games. That is a recipe for disaster against Seattle’s ball-hawking defense. I don’t see Chris Thompson as anything more than an extremely risky RB2 in this matchup.
C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles – C.J. Anderson has not been the same player since Denver’s Week 5 bye. After averaging 99.3 total yards and 12.93 fantasy points in his first four games, Anderson has averaged just 54.3 yards and 5.43 fantasy points in three games since. He did have his best game since the bye in Denver’s Week 8 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling 78 rushing yards on 15 carries. Anderson remains an RB2 on the season (RB16 overall) despite his recent struggles. However, Denver’s Week 9 date in Philadelphia is a foreboding matchup. Philadelphia has one of the best defenses against the run in the entire NFL. They have allowed just 70.4 rushing yards per game, best in the NFL. Kareem Hunt is the only running who has rushed for even 40 yards against Philadelphia. Even if C.J. Anderson joins Hunt in that group, he’s not more than a low-end RB2/Flex in Week 9.
Jay Ajayi, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Denver Broncos – I don’t let any personal biases interfere in my decision-making process. Having said that, I really can’t stand Jay Ajayi right now. In the four games I’ve started him this season, he’s averaged 34 rushing yards per game. In the three games I’ve benched him, he’s averaged 109.7. But that’s not why I do not like him this week. As I alluded to earlier, Ajayi was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, which should help his rest-of-season value. However, it will not enhance Ajayi’s Week 9 outlook. The Eagles take on the Denver Broncos this week. Denver has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. They are also the only team yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. Considering Ajayi hasn’t scored a touchdown himself this season, the likelihood of doing so in this matchup is quite small. There’s also the possibility that Ajayi doesn’t see his normal workload since he will not have much time to learn Doug Pederson’s offensive scheme. I think it’s far more likely the Eagles give Ajayi this week and their Week 10 bye to get acclimated. I would not start Jay Ajayi in fantasy leagues this week. Then again, maybe that means you should.
SLEEPER OF THE WEEK:
Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders – Following the trade of Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia, Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams are the top two running backs in Miami. I’m not sure that either has significantly more value than the other at this juncture, but head coach Adam Gase did call Drake the number two running back a few weeks ago. Based on that, it would stand to reason that Drake would get the first crack at becoming Miami’s starting running back. Even if this situation ends up becoming the dreaded timeshare, Drake is useful in certain matchups and certain weeks. Week 9 is one of those weeks. With so many quality running backs on byes or otherwise having their availability questioned, Drake makes for a very interesting speculative Week 9 play against the Oakland Raiders. Oakland has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Kenyan Drake could immediately become a fantasy asset starting in Week 9 based on this matchup.