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Fantasy Football QB Sleepers: Andy Dalton

If Andy Dalton were an ice cream flavor, he’d be “plain.”

There’s nothing exciting about drafting the Milhouse of the NFL. I’m sure Dalton’s a real nice guy, but at the end of the day, the Bengals are still one-pump chumps in the playoffs. It’s normally pretty easy to separate real life football and fantasy football, but if there’s one thing stubborn owners remember, it’s some serious playoff chokin’.

Again, I get it, no one wants the dud. Even if said dud threw for over 4,000 yards last season. Just remember, success on the field translates to worth in fantasy. If early ADPs are anything to go off of, Dalton is the head honcho among overlooked quarterbacks this year, and for some strange reason, it feels like we’ve done this once before.

People seem to be focusing way too much on the “vanilla” and a lot less on the “salted caramel” (or whatever other flavor you like) of Dalton’s game. The Bengals offense is a huge wait-and-see, but for a 29-year-old quarterback to fall all the way to the 20th round – or worse, undrafted – that’s just a special kind of crazy. I hear your concerns loud and clear, and I’ll touch on them below, but in case you haven’t realized, Dalton is as “sleeper” as it gets this year. If you like your beer cold and your quarterbacks drafted nice and late, this is plenty good news.

O-Line, Schmo-Line

Dalton threw for over 4,000 yards in front of five marshmallows last year. He was sacked 41 times, and if you put just about any other quarterback in the exact same situation, I can almost guarantee they’d throw more than eight interceptions.

Dalton went through hell last season, and he came out the other side looking swell. The downfall is left tackle Andrew Whitworth and right guard Kevin Zeitler have now departed, and for a team that pounds the running game stubbornly, you’re going to see plenty of bodies flying inside the pocket again this season. Since Dalton is likely to spend more time on the ground, it’s probably a good thing he’s discovered his twinkle-toes. Dalton found some serious wheels last year, rushing for a career-high 184 yards and four touchdowns. And while that doesn’t spell out everything you’d like to see from your starting quarterback, it’s much better production than you’re going to see from some of the more elite quarterbacks taken in earlier rounds.

Of course, since the offensive line is even further depleted, Dalton’s efficiency is on the hot seat. His passer rating dropped to 57.1% when pressured last year, but the good news is, Dalton will finally have a healthy arsenal of weapons to choose from when he looks down the field. For once, the majority of the Bengals in training camp are healthy. Coupled with A.J. Green returning and the addition of John Ross, there are no shortage of options for Dalton to turn to.

No Air? Don’t Care

Three sure is a crowd. News flash: The Bengals are a run-heavy team, and with three studs to choose from, it’s not hard to see why. Joe Mixon is the runner you want to draft this year, but it’s easy to make a case for Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, too. Hill will probably be the starter, but you’d do well to draft Mixon a helluva lot earlier this year, simply because he projects to be the next best thing behind Christian McCaffrey.

Anyway, the Bengals running the ball isn’t necessarily a bad thing, at least as far as Dalton is concerned. Cincinnati did rank fourth in rushing attempts last year, but Dalton still managed to attempt the second most passes in his career (563) and complete 64.7% of them. That sounds like a pretty pedestrian number, but keep in mind, Dalton went without Green for seven weeks, Tyler Eifert for eight, and Bernard for six.

Resiliency

You might not know it, but Dalton already has the highest winning percentage (62%) in Bengals history. He finished inside the Top 12 in fantasy points last year, and if you sometimes like to live in the past, Dalton also ranked inside the Top 5 QBs in points during a limited 2015 season.

[the_ad id=”384″]There’s plenty of flashy stats to throw around that give a reason for optimism. Dalton’s 91.8 passer rating ranked 16th highest among qualified starters last year, and prior to 2016’s injury, Dalton and Green were hooking up for the sixth-most touchdowns between a quarterback and wide receiver. Perhaps the most important thing, though, is that Dalton now enters his second year with offensive coordinator Ken Zampese. It’s a rapport that resulted in just 18 touchdowns last season, and with so many big names returning, you can expect a big year from the both of them.

There’s certainly nothing flashy about this red-head, but for everything Dalton lacks in excitement, he makes up for in consistent (and underrated) numbers. More importantly, he can be had for a bargain-low price, and since owners are either forgetting or simply discriminating against the Bengals misfortune, don’t sleep on Dalton as your No. 1 starter in the late rounds of your draft.

Follow Ryan on Twitter here! @RyanCook13

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