Training camp is officially here! I saw a tweet today from Ian Rapoport saying that the NFL Network is covering over 10 hours of training camp… Football is back people! Time to get excited and what better way to express that enthusiasm than to dive into some Fantasy Football ADP analysis. In this week’s Fantasy Stock Watch we are going to break down some ADP value and potential reaches to be careful of.
Fantasy Stock Watch: Breaking Down Projected ADP Value
Derrius Guice, Washington Redskins
Current ADP: 3.10
Projected ADP: 3.05
Guice was projected to be the second running back off the board in the NFL Draft after Saquon Barkley. The Seahawks were one of the favorites to take a running back in the first round but they elected to go with Rashaad Penny out of San Diego State. This allowed the Redskins to acquire a steal in the second round by drafting Derrius Guice well under his draft value.
NFL Draft value is just not the same as ADP value in Fantasy Football. Guice is being drafted as the RB17 currently in PPR and this is only going to go up. Guice is a great running back and his Ezekiel Elliott comparison is not far off. He is a low-to-the-ground runner who plays physical and has break-away speed. He has been labeled as a player that is not skilled as a pass-catcher but I would dispute that. The system ran at LSU did not use Guice in that way and he should get targets in the screen game with Alex Smith in Washington.
I like Guice this year as a low-end RB2. The Redskins offense will surprise people in 2018 but Guice will still lose passing-down opportunity as long as Chris Thompson is healthy. The rookie will be drafted close to an RB1 in PPR and that is just too high. I project Guice flashing in the preseason which will make his ADP value tilt towards the front of the third round. At that point, he will be drafted at his ceiling as his workload and production will be capped by the offense he is on.
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Sony Michel, New England Patriots
Current ADP: 4.09
Projected ADP: 4.06
Sony Michel was a monster at the University of Georgia. He averaged 7.9 yards a carry on 154 attempts with 1,227 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Patriots uncharacteristically drafted Michel in the first round. This pick is even more strange when you consider that according to Rotoworld Michel’s fumble rate is one per 54.6 times he touches the ball. The average prospect fumbles once every 124.6 times.
The Patriots seem enthusiastic about making Michel a project they can mold into a reliable running back. It would be unwise to doubt Bill Belichick and his staff so I am not going to. I believe that Michel is going to have a good year and be Fantasy relevant. But, I hesitate to consider him as an RB2 in Fantasy.
Michel is being drafted almost three rounds ahead of Rex Burkhead whom the Patriots recently signed to a three-year deal (again, not typical Patriots protocol). Burkhead could get as much work as Michel in 2018 on the ground and will provide Fantasy gamers with yards in the receiving game as well.
Just like Guice, I project Michel to flash in the preseason which is going to bump his value closer to the beginning of the fourth round. The ADP value tilts to the side of Burkhead in this case. We know that the Patriots running backs will have Fantasy appeal in 2018 and the discount of Burkhead is safer than spending high for Michel this season.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Current ADP: 8.06
Projected ADP: 8.11
It is important to understand the relationship between Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp. It is reminiscent of the chemistry that Tony Romo and Jason Witten developed for the Cowboys. Goff and Kupp were roommates for about a month after Kupp was drafted and the results on the field exceeded expectations in Fantasy Football.
Kupp was fourth in the NFL with 23 red zone targets. While that number can be looked at as an outlier, Sammy Watkins left a vacancy of 10 targets inside the 20. Kupp finished the year as the WR25 with 62 receptions on 94 targets for 869 yards and five touchdowns (all in the red zone). The Rams offense surprised most as they moved the ball all over the field and found themselves in scoring position often. 2018 could present even more red zone opportunities as the Rams have added a star-studded cast on defense.
Brandin Cooks’ ADP is soaring since last week when he inked his extension with the Rams worth $88 million. While Cooks has entered into the fourth round, Kupp conversely will slip in drafts. He is being taken off the board late in the eighth round as the WR37. Kupp has his role locked in as the slot receiver in three-wideout sets with Cooks and Robert Woods on the outside. Yet, the latter do not have the established chemistry that the second-year player has with his quarterback. I project Kupp’s numbers to remain similar to last year, making him a borderline WR2 in 2018.
Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans
Current ADP: 6.02
Projected ADP: 5.09
Davis was my favorite rookie WR to begin 2017. I had more shares of Davis than I did any other Titans player. That will not be the case this year as his stock has been rising through the Summer. Davis is being drafted as the WR27 and he will be considered a WR2 by the majority of drafters very soon. His projected ADP value is ceiling or bust.
Davis started off strong in 2017. In Week 1 Marcus Mariota targeted him 10 times and the rookie finished with six receptions for 69 yards. Unfortunately, he was locked down the following week against the Jaguars and then missed five games with an injury. However, the former Western Michigan standout finished his season strong in a playoff game against the Patriots catching two touchdowns – albeit in garbage time.
In 2016 Mariota had a great year which was considered his breakout season. He finished as the QB13 and had 26 touchdowns to only nine interceptions. Rishard Matthews finished as the WR11 that year in standard scoring with 65 catches on 108 targets with nine touchdowns. I see these numbers as Davis’s absolute ceiling, but that means Mariota will have to return to that 2016 form. Mariota was the QB17 last season but I do see him improving with a new coaching staff in place.
While Davis’s skill set could provide WR1 numbers in another situation, he will most likely fall into that WR2/WR3 range. Matthews, who had that great season two years ago, is being drafted as the WR53 in the eleventh round, yet he has the established chemistry with Mariota. He is the wide receiver to target to return ADP value on this Titans roster, while Davis will be a boom or bust player based on his current draft position.
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