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Fantasy Football: ADP Risers and Fallers 8/4

Welcome to the second installment of ADP Risers and Fallers. Training Camp is a week in and Fantasy Football drafts are happening everywhere. There is a certain amount of fun to drafting early, but it is always a good idea to draft as late as you can. Why? More information. Injuries, suspensions, position battles, and training camp performances can all change the values of certain players. This is especially true of a player’s ADP, or “average draft position.

Fantasy owners want to know when to can expect to get a certain player in the draft. This will allow you to make a game plan. Should you reach for a player in the third round? Should you gamble and pass on a player, hoping that he will make it back to you next round? All of these decisions are made easier by your own research and studying ADP risers and fallers. You want to know the trends of what other fantasy players are doing and thinking. I am going to help you with that.

ADP Risers and Fallers

Throughout the preseason I will break down key players who have seen dramatic changes in their ADP. I will pick out several fantasy players from each position to see if the change is warranted. However, the ADP risers and fallers could also create a buying opportunity (or a reason to avoid) for certain players. Let’s take a look at this week’s ADP risers and fallers.

Quarterback ADP

Riser – Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck is expected to see his first game action since Jan. 1, 2017, when he led the Colts to a 24-20 season-ending victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. That was a long time ago. Fantasy owners can’t help but get excited about the prospect of Andrew Luck being back and healthy. I mean, we are talking a Top-5, if not Top-2 fantasy quarterback when he is at his best.

After undergoing surgery to his throwing shoulder and missing all of last year, Luck looks like he hasn’t missed a beat so far through five training camp practices. The Colts do have him on a strict three days on, one day off regimen. In other words, Luck will throw for three days, then have a mandatory day in which he will rest his arm. It is nothing to worry about though, just the Colts being careful with their team captain.

Luck’s ADP has steadily started to climb as the good news (or lack of bad news) continues. However, Fantasy owners want to see how the Pro Bowl quarterback responds to actual game action without the comfort and security of a red jersey. Be warned though, if Luck looks like he is back to normal, his ADP will skyrocket.

(Current ADP: 122.72) 

Faller – Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Fantasy owners need to learn one thing. Training Camp does not matter. Sure, it can impact a position battle but its main focus is to get players ready for the season. Sometimes this means trying some things out, or just messing around with different mechanics and testing new limits. I say this because of the dark cloud that has started to form over Chiefs quarterback Pat Mahomes.

Fantrax Football CommissionerIt’s only the second week of training camp, but fantasy owners are freaking out. Mahomes has thrown seven interceptions in six days of Chiefs’ practice. To be fair, the sophomore has thrown six of those interceptions in the padded, contact practices, which are meant to be more serious. Don’t worry.

Interceptions are not the end of the world in training camp, in fact, it may be helpful to a degree for young quarterbacks like Mahomes. The Chiefs’ quarterback and the Kansas City coaching staff will have plenty of time to fix whatever problems that are occurring, well before week one of the regular season. All I am saying is, “We’re talkin’ bout practice” to quote the legendary Allen Iverson. Seven interceptions mean seven opportunities to make changes and adjustments.

If you believed in Pat Mahomes before training camp, this performance should not change your mind. It will only allow for a discount. Mahomes tossed just one interception every 47 passes at Texas Tech while throwing only one interception in 89 passes as a rookie QB. So like I said, do not let some training camp practices convince you that Mahomes is all of a sudden a turnover machine.

(Current ADP: 123.81)

Running Back ADP

Riser – Isaiah Crowell, New York Jets

The Crowell ADP phenomenon is just a simple case of math and market share. The Jets only have so many touches they can split among their running backs, and Elijah McGuire broke his foot. Those rushes have to go somewhere, and they are certainly not all going to Bilal Powell. Many of them are likely going to fall into the lap of RB1 Isaiah Crowell, making him a workhorse back with major fantasy upside.

The Jets have already begun testing the pass-catching abilities of Crowell, The Jets coaching staff has reportedly been pleasantly surprised about it as well, which is good news. While Powell is likely to see a dramatic increase in work as well, the added touches for Crowell could be a fantasy game-changer. The best part of this scenario is that while savvy fantasy owners continue to bump Crowell up the rankings, many will dismiss him. He will still be written off by the casual fan as a failed running back on a bad football team. Let them think that while you draft Crowell and get the last laugh. The Jets running back is seeing his ADP rise for a reason, and it’s a reason to believe in.

(Current ADP: 99.14)

Faller – Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

The rookie hype train is going to come off the rails for a lot of guys this time of year. Nick Chubb was just the most obvious candidate to start us off. He is very talented, and it’s possible Chubb earns playing time as the season progresses, but the Browns’ starting running back is Carlos Hyde. Cleveland went out and signed the veteran back early in free agency, and he is going to get the bulk of the early-down carries.

The other obstacle in Chubb’s immediate future is the presence of Duke Johnson. A PPR stud in 2017. Johnson has the third-down role locked down as the Browns’s go-to passing-catching back. Not that Chubb is known for his pass-catching abilities. Either way, this is just not a perfect fit for Chubb to have a breakout season.

Chubb is clearly Cleveland’s running back of the future, but his fantasy value has a severe anchor attached to it with Hyde and Duke Johnson on the roster. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to take a flier on the young running back, but at his current ADP, it does not make sense. Chubb’s ADP should continue to fall, and you should let it unless something changes in Browns’ camp.

(Current ADP: 94.17)

Riser – Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks

Faller – Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks

Despite drafting Rashaad Penny with their first-round pick this season, the Seahawks plan to start Chris Carson to begin the 2018 season. The 23-year-old sophomore back has been Seattle’s most impressive back in training camp, outshining Penny. Greg Bell of the Seattle News Tribune had this to say after watching Carson in camp, “Carson has been the most physically impressive Seahawk on either side of the ball. He’s not running as much as he is gliding. And this is a thoroughbred. He gained 10 pounds while rehabilitating this offseason. He’s listed at 5-11, 220 pounds. But he’s moving faster and looking leaner yet more formidable than that.”

In 2017, Carson rushed for 208 yards in four games before his rookie season was cut short by a broken leg that ended his season. Many fantasy owners were calling for a Carson “breakout” before the NFL draft, but those whispers disappeared when Seattle took Penny at 27 overall. However, Carson seems to have the full support of head coach Pete Carrol. Still, it’s hard to imagine Carson (an undrafted free agent) beating out a first-round draft choice for the job long term.

Unfortunately, all fantasy owners have to go on are the facts. Those facts point to Carson being the guy in Seattle, ahead of Penny, Mike Davis, CJ Prosise, and JD McKissic on the depth chart. Savvy fantasy players will look through this circus and remain confident that cream rises to the top. Meaning that Penny will take the job at some point this season. Carson may be due for a jump in ADP, but not at the expense of a huge fall for Penny,

(Carson’s Current ADP: 165.67) (Penny’s Current ADP: 42.88)

Wide Receiver ADP

Riser – Kenny Stills, Miami Dolphins

Faller – Devante Parker, Miami Dolphins

Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard has made Devante Parker look completely outclassed the first week of training camp. Not to mention that the chemistry between Parker and quarterback Ryan Tannehill seems to be non-existent. Fantasy owners have been hoping and waiting for a breakout from the young wideout for years. The departure of Jarvis Landry this offseason was supposed to be the thing that finally catalyzed the breakout season for Parker, but it seems like it may be a pipe dream. Fantasy owners are starting to feel this way, with more joining the thought process every day. This fully explains the decline in Parker’s preseason ADP.

That being said, someone is going to catch the passes that Jarvis Landry left behind. The market share in Miami is up in the air and many were hoping that it would be Devante Parker’s. Fantasy owners seem to have settled on their new favorite, Kenny Stills. The veteran wideout racked up 105 targets, catching 58 of them for 847 yards and six touchdowns in 2017.  Jarvis Landry left behind 161 targets, and while Stills is a completely different kind of wide receiver, it ’s a good bet that many of those will head his way. This is regardless of how Parker performs, but it could certainly get a bump if Devante were to struggle.

(Stills’ Current ADP: 126.58) (Parker’s Current ADP: 90.87)

Riser – Eric Decker, New England Patriots

The Patriots signed free-agent Eric Decker after losing Jordan Matthews to the IR on Wednesday. He should assume the duties in the slot for the Tom Brady led offense to start the season. Decker ran 46.9 percent of his routes from the slot last year for the Titans. In 2015 with the Jets, he occupied the slot 68.3 percent of the time. A larger slot receiver is a perfect fit for New England, and if he can pick up the offense fairly quickly he may be a big part of their attack.

Even if Decker isn’t the athlete he was in his prime, he can be a lethal red-zone target for Tom Brady. His height and wingspan make him a sneaky deep threat as well. Since 2012, Decker has collected 34 career red-zone touchdowns, tied with Rob Gronkowski. I know what you are thinking. Why didn’t the Patriots just sign Decker in the first place? Decker is well worth a late-round flier right now, but his ADP is likely to soar with positive reports from camp.

(Current ADP: N/A)

Faller – Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns

I do not pretend to know what is going on with Josh Gordon. I certainly hope that the treatment he is receiving works for him and he has a successful recovery. However, the fact that his ADP is falling is far from a surprise. It is especially easy to believe after Browns’ GM John Dorsey stated that he has “no idea” when Gordon will return to the field. There is no doubt that Gordon has the ability to be a WR1, and do it this season. On the other hand, it is also very conceivable that Gordon is unavailable for fantasy owners and comes with great risk.

The bottom line here is that no one knows anything. This situation is hard to understand because no one has the facts and the only one who does is Josh Gordon. This is a coin flip situation. How risk averse are you? Are you willing to gamble? It’s obvious many fantasy owners are not.

(Current ADP: 42.69)

Have any questions? Send me a message on Twitter anytime

The Fantasy Black Book ShowReady to amp up your Fantasy Football prep even more? Check out The Fantasy Black Book Show, where Joe Pisapia, Scott Bogman, and The Welsh bring the goods every week.

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