We are well into the fantasy basketball season. You should always be looking to improve your team. One way to do that is to buy low on players that are underachieving in fantasy basketball. Another way is to sell high on players that are producing stats that seem unsustainable. This week we look at a couple buy low targets and a couple sell high targets that could improve the long-term outlook of your fantasy basketball squad. The following information is intended for managers in 9-category fantasy basketball leagues.
Fantasy Basketball Buy Low Targets
Jabari Smith Jr.
Predicting rookie stats is insanely difficult. No matter what you think about Jabari Smith as an NBA prospect he has the potential to produce a fantasy-friendly line. The issue early in the season was his poor shooting. It was completely tanking his fantasy value, but over the last two weeks, he’s managed to shoot 45% from the field. In that time he’s been a top 75 fantasy basketball player in 9-cat. His plus categories are threes made, rebounds, blocks, free throw percentage, and turnovers. If those categories fit your team build, this might be the last opportunity to buy low on Jabari Smith. I’d be more than comfortable giving up a top-100 fantasy basketball talent to acquire Jabari Smith’s services going forward.
Fred VanVleet is currently struggling with his shot, but the rest of his numbers for fantasy basketball purposes look normal. Based on per-game stats VanVleet has been the 44th-ranked player in 9-cat. Last season he was the 14th-ranked player and the season prior Fred was 16th. If his field goal percentage comes up 4% he’ll be back in that top-20 zone. As long as Fred VanVleet is healthy his heavy minutes aren’t in jeopardy as the Raptors don’t have a legitimate backup point guard. I’d gladly be willing to give up a top 50 fantasy basketball asset to bet on Fred VanVleet.
Fantasy Basketball Sell High Targets
Last season Anfernee Simons wasn’t a top 100 fantasy basketball player. This season he’s been the 28th-ranked player on per-game numbers in 9-cat. Even with him playing 7+ minutes more per game this season that’s probably not sustainable. And then you have to factor in that he was doing that with Damian Lillard missing a bunch of games. In 12 games with Lillard this season, Simons has scored 21.1PPG with 3.4APG. But that looks solid, right? Without Lillard this season, Simons has averaged 29PPG with 5.9APG which is obviously way better. Assuming Lillard stays healthy, Simons isn’t going to going to continue this tear. If I could get a top 40 fantasy basketball player in exchange for Anfernee Simons I’m smashing the accept button.
Andrew Wiggins is shooting a higher percentage from three this season than Steph Curry! Wiggins will not continue to shoot 45% from three. The great three-point shooting is helping him in three categories (FG%, PTS, 3PM). When the regression sets his field goal percentage will fall back under 50% and the points and threes will likely come down as well. Last season Wiggins wasn’t a top-100 player. This season he’s the 24th-ranked player on per-game numbers in 9-cat leagues. Wiggins is also averaging a career-high 1.4SPG. To be conservative let’s average that with his career norm of 1SPG and say maybe the rest of the way he can average 1.2. Another thing to note is that Wiggins’ free throw attempts have been down this season. He’s not a good free throw shooter so fewer attempts have reduced his negative impact in that category. I’d be more than happy to sell Andrew Wiggins for a top 50 fantasy basketball player.
Have you been able to buy low or sell high in your fantasy basketball league?