It’s crazy to think that we’re approaching the half-way mark of the 2020 season. It’s also crazy seeing how many big-name players are calling IL home right now. Over the last week or two, we’ve seen Ronald Acuña Jr, Alex Bregman, Gleyber Torres, Yordan Alvarez (again), Aaron Judge, Bo Bichette, Tommy Pham, Stephen Strasburg, and countless others land on the IL, leaving big holes in our fantasy squads. The best way to plug those holes is by hitting the Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire hard or bring aggressive with your weekly FAAB bids. Luckily, there are plenty of intriguing options to consider this week, both offensively and on the mound.
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Hitters
Randall Grichuk (OF – TOR)
Outside of a 0/8 doubleheader on Thursday, Randall Grichuk has been absolutely raking. Over the last two weeks, Grichuk is hitting .333 with six homers, 15 RBI, and 12 runs scored for the Blue Jays, joining Teoscar Hernandez’s hot streak. While his exit velocity is middle of the pack this season, many of Grichuk’s statcast sliders are in the pink or red right now. His xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel% are all 70th percentile or better and his hard-hit rate isn’t far behind. Not only is he raking, but Grichuk has also settled into a favorable lineup slot, hitting 2nd for the most part in the middle of Lourdes Gurriel, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, and Teoscar Hernandez. He needs to be rostered in all leagues with how he’s hitting right now.
First we played small ball…
Then, @RGrich15 went LONG 💣 pic.twitter.com/KD1StN91x2
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) August 18, 2020
Wilmer Flores (1B/2B/3B – SFG)
Speaking of players on fire right now, Wilmer Flores has multi-hit efforts in five of his last six games while going yard in three straight. If that’s not the definition of “on fire”, then I don’t know what is. For the season, Flores is up to a robust .333/.365/.589 slash line with seven dingers, 19 RBI, and 15 runs scored across 90 at-bats. This performance shouldn’t come as a shock either. Last season with Arizona, Flores slashed .317/.361/.487 with nine homers in 265 at-bats.
With a 32nd percentile exit velocity, 25 percentile hard-hit rate, and 2.6% barrel rate, this power output will be tough to continue, but Flores has proven he can be an asset in the batting average department while providing a little bit of pop and multi-positional eligibility. If you’re looking for a plug-in while your starter struggles on your bench or recovers on the IL, Flores is a great option.
Joey Bart (C – SFG)
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that you probably could use an upgrade at catcher. Crazy, right? Well, unless you roster one of the elite options, you’re either holding onto someone struggling that you drafted as your starting catcher or currently riding a hot streak from someone like Pedro Severino. Either way, you’re current catcher situation is likely less than ideal. Joey Bart can help with that. Even if you’re one of the lucky few that has a catcher they’re happy with, Bart is still worth targeting in redraft leagues for his upside alone.
Outside of Adley Rutschman, Bart is the best catching prospect in the game. Following a breakout final season at Georgia Tech, Bart continued that success in the minors, slashing .284/.343/.532 with 29 doubles and 29 home runs in 130 games. Bart features an average to above-average hit tool with double-plus raw power that could lead to some .275/35 seasons down the road. His immediate upside is a potential top-5 catcher, and honestly, there are only a handful of backstops I’d definitely take over him in fantasy right now. Bart is off to a 2/7 start with two doubles in his first two games. And if you were worried about him playing regularly, don’t be. Bart is an above-average defensive catcher too that will likely play close to every day this season.
If you miss out on Bart, both Martin Maldonado and Austin Nola are hitting well right now and should be considered in mixed leagues right now.
Ryan Mountcastle (1B – BAL)
With Baltimore looking to add an offensive spark, they called up their best hitting prospect not named Adley Rutschman yesterday, summoning Ryan Mountcastle from their alternate site. Defensive struggles have caused Mountcastle to bounce around the diamond from shortstop to the hot corner and now in a 1B/LF mold, but the bat has remained consistent throughout. And of course, that’s why we’re targeting him in fantasy leagues. Mountcastle is a career .294 hitter in the minors with above-average to plus raw power from the right side of the plate. Long-term, this is a .280/25 type of bat that should hit in the middle of Baltimore’s order. For now, I’d grab Mountcastle in all leagues for his ability to hit for average and power. And if you play on Yahoo, congratulations, as he is listed as a shortstop even though he hasn’t manned the position since 2017 in the Class-A Advanced Carolina League.
If you’re wondering about Cristian Pache and Jesus Sánchez, both are only deeper league targets for me right now. Both are talented bats and intriguing longterm options, but both are still far from finished products and haven’t consistently turned all that talent into game production in the minors.
Jake Cronenworth (2B – SD)
It’s not often that I can sneak a player with an OPS of nearly 1.000 onto the list. Let alone one that is rostered in under 20% of leagues. That’s right, Jake Cronenworth has an OPS of .997 this season, slashing .328/.400/.597 so far with two home runs and a steal in 22 games. On top of that, Cronenworth also has eight doubles and two triples with an 8/10 BB/K ratio. His statcast data backs up this hot start and even adds additional encouragement when you see all the pink and red below.
Coming into the season, Cronenworth was on the outside looking in when it came to playing time. Not anymore. With all the injuries San Diego has had this season, Cronenworth now finds himself starting regularly at first or second base while also filling in at shortstop when Fernando Tatìs Jr needs a day off. This type of all-around production and multi-positional eligibility can be very beneficial, this season especially.
Deep League Target: Raimel Tapia (OF – COL)
Including Raimel Tapia here pains me as his inclusion means he’s STILL eating into Garrett Hampson’s playing time a little bit. But be that as it may, Tapia has been starting regularly over the last week or two and can provide some deep league value as long as he is. In 49 at-bats this season, Tapia is slashing .306/.407/.467 with nine runs, six RBI, and two steals. Don’t expect much power from Tapia, but his ability to post a high AVG/OBP and steal some bases makes him a solid target if you need some outfield help.
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Pitchers
Elieser Hernandez (SP – MIA)
Last week, Pablo Lopez made this piece and now one of his teammates does as well. As is custom with Miami pitchers, Elieser Hernandez is quietly putting together a pretty good season thus far. Through his first three starts, Hernandez has a stellar 1.84 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 19 strikeouts in 14.2 innings of work. He’s found this success working with mostly a two-pitch arsenal with his fastball and slider accounting for 96.1% of his pitches. Normally, I’d shy away from these pitchers long-term. But that’s the great thing about this 2020 season, the phrase “long-term” doesn’t apply. We’re already nearly halfway through this shortened season. For now, Hernandez’s pitch mix is working for him, and when you look at the metrics on his fastball and slider, it’s easy to see why.
Two SP's have a SL with a 43%+ Zone rate and a 25%+ SwSt:
Max Scherzer and Elieser Hernandez.
While Elieser is FAR from being a Scherzer, his top xBA (amongst active SP's) and ability to climb the ladder makes me think we may not be paying enough attention to him. pic.twitter.com/SztbEy4o4M
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) July 2, 2019
Hernandez’s slider has produced a .182 xBA, .215 xwOBA, 43.6% whiff rate, and 31.0% putaway rate this season. The fastball, while not quite as good, has still been a highly-effective pitch for Hernandez this season. When you have two pitches like this working so well for you and limiting free passes at the same time (1.2 BB/9), you can find short-term success in a season like this. Grab Hernandez and ride the hot streak until it fizzles out.
Brad Keller (SP – KC)
Brad Keller hasn’t allowed an earned run through his first three starts. Wait, what? Yes, that statement is indeed true, even if it strongly reeks of fake news. Keller is now 17.2 innings into his 2020 campaign without allowing a run and only giving up eight hits in the process. However, the problem is that he’s allowed eight walks already compared to 15 strikeouts. That equates to a 4.1 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9, which are the definitions of mediocre. Keller isn’t going to win you any leagues or likely even be a key cog on your pitching staff. But what Keller can do right now is help stabilize your ratios with how well he’s limiting hard contact right now ranking in the 90th percentile for exit velocity allowed, 94th percentile for hard-hit rate allowed, 77th percentile for xSLG, and 87th percentile for barrel rate allowed.
Kevin Gausman (SP – SFG)
When you look at Kevin Gausman’s 4.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, you’d likely yawn and skim on through. But what if I told you that Gausman currently ranks 6th in K-BB%? Would that pique your interest? How about if I told you the other nine pitchers in the top 10 are (in order) Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Aaron Nola, Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Sonny Gray, Dinelson Lamet, Yu Darvish, and Max Scherzer?
Gausman is basically the anti-Brad Keller, excelling in walk rate and strikeout rate with slightly higher ratios. But there’s a reason for optimism there too. Gausman is currently being weighed down by a .363 BABIP (3rd highest) and 66.7% strand rate (10th worst), both of which are likely to stabilize moving forward and drop his ERA closer to his 3.14 FIP and 2.94 xFIP.
Casey Mize (SP – DET), Tarik Skubal (SP – DET), Sixto Sanchez (RHP – MIA), Triston McKenzie (SP – CLE)
I’m not going to go into great detail here as I discussed all Mize and Skubal at length in my Prospect Report earlier in the week. All four of these intriguing prospect arms need to be rostered, depending on the depth of your league.
Casey Mize (All Leagues): My #6 pitching prospect for fantasy purposes, Mize has one of the highest floors of any pitching prospect in the game today. All four (counting his cutter and slider separately) flash or grade as above-average or better in any given outing with his splitter grading easily as a 70-grade offering. The strikeouts might not be elite, but Mize showed how good he can be early on in his debut before the wheels came off in the last inning.
Tarik Skubal (All Leagues): With Tarik Skubal, the strikeout upside is off the charts. The southpaw posted a 13.4 K/9 last season including a 17.1 K/9 in nine Double-A starts. Skubal’s double-plus fastball is his best pitch and just how good he can be in the Majors will be up to how consistent his secondary offerings wind up being. For 2020, his strikeout potential makes him worth targeting in all leagues. Don’t let his 4 ER, 2 IP debut scare you off, but like with any rookie arm, there will be some ups and downs.
Sixto Sánchez (All Leagues): The latest big-name arm to be called up, Sixto Sanchez has future frontline starter written all over him. As has been the case with Dustin May, Sixto hasn’t missed many bats in the minors, despite is dynamic arsenal consisting of a mid to upper-90’s fastball, plus or better changeup, and a slider that flashes plus at times. Still, Sixto should be able to keep that K rate close to a batter per inning while posting solid ratios for your fantasy squad thanks to his combination of elite stuff and above-average to plus command and control.
Triston McKenzie (15+ Team Leagues): McKenzie is the one I’m more skeptical about for 2020 redraft leagues. Why? Well, McKenzie hasn’t pitched in a game since August 30th, 2018, nearly two years ago. The talent and organization still make McKenzie a nice longterm investment, but I’m skeptical he can make an impact right away following his extended layoff.
Media/Link Credit: Baseball Savant, Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire, Toronto Blue Jays, Alex Fast.
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