Dynasty Football Stock Watch: J.A.R.V.I.S – Just a Reduced Volume Irritable Situation
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. The second week of the NFL season provides the opportunity to confirm or dispute our instant reactions from Week 1. Performances meet the minimum requirements to be considered hints of a trend. It’s time to start asking some questions. Who stands ready to ascend to the ranks of the dynasty football elite? Who lays primed to leave you yearning for ever-fading memories of glory? Let’s get after it.
Dynasty Football Stock Watch
↓ Jarvis Landry – Cleveland Browns (WR)
Per Game: 3.5 rec, 49.5 yds rec, 0 TD (7 targets) – 99% of snaps
Alright, let’s have a bit of perspective here. Jarvis Landry is not a bad player, by any means. He’s eclipsed 80 receptions and 970 yards receiving each of the last four seasons. But unfortunately, dynasty football is a game of market relativity. You don’t just want good players. You want good players who outproduce their cost to acquire. Buy underrated players, sell overrated players. In the case of Jarvis Landry, he falls into the latter grouping.
Including the first two weeks of this season, Jarvis Landry’s yards per game production steadily declined each year since 2015 (72.3, 71, 61.7, 61, 49.5). Early in his career, he made his bones as a PPR maven. But PPR production is heavily situationally dependent, and Jarvis finds himself in one of the least fantasy-friendly situations of his career.
The acquisition of Odell Beckham Jr and his 10.5 targets per game has diminished Jarvis Landry’s fantasy impact. Landry plays a tough, yards after contact game that is reliant on being fed a high number of targets. Landry simply no longer commands the volume necessary to sustain his perceptive value.
For Landry owners, there is a bit of a silver lining to this cloud, however. Tight end David Njoku will be sidelined for at least four weeks with a broken wrist. Landry’s chain-moving skillset maps well to occupy a portion of that vacated role, so he should see boosted production. The next few weeks present owners with a nice window to sell Landry while he still has plenty of dynasty value.
↑ Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys (QB)
Per Game: 337 pass yds, 3.5 TD, 0.5 INT, 40.5 rushing yds (142.9 passer rating)
With so many franchise quarterbacks in seemingly the twilight of their careers, fans are hungry for the next generation of stars. Dak Prescott is very much in that next generation.
Prescott burst into fantasy relevance from day one. Drafted into an ideal situation featuring an elite supporting cast, Prescott was set up for success. After an array of injuries, suspensions, and athletic decline amongst his teammates, Dak was little more than a fringe fantasy starter over the past few seasons.
But now Dak is spearheading the most explosive offense he’s been a part of. The offensive line is back healthy and dominating. Amari Cooper resembles the player we all thought he would be after his rookie season. Michael Gallup, though banged up, has taken a huge step forward in his sophomore year. And while some smirked at the promotion of Kellen Moore from QB coach to offensive coordinator, the hiring looks shrewd in hindsight. The Cowboys offense is firing on all cylinders right now, and Moore’s contributions cannot be discounted.
— Cowboys Videos (@Cowboys_Videos) September 15, 2019
While much of this acclaim has been directed toward his teammates, it would be unfair to overlook Prescott’s developments himself. Dak is playing mistake-free football right now and is consistently getting the ball out of his hands and on target to his receivers. Prescott’s mixture of talent, protection, and weapons make him one of the best young quarterbacks to attach your wagon to in dynasty football.
↓ Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers (QB)
Per Game: 286 passing yds, 0 TD, 0.5 INT, 21.5 rushing yds (71.0 passer rating)
Has superhero fatigue set in for Cam Newton? Are Superman’s days numbered? It’s a fair question to ask. We’re coming off an off-season that featured the comparably athletic Andrew Luck riding off to an early retirement. And just like Luck, Newton hasn’t done his body many favors over his career.
Operating as both a scrambling quarterback and goal line running back, Newton’s body has endured plenty of damage over the years. While some dual-threat quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray actively protect themselves from harm, Newton routinely engaged contact converting tough yardage. It made him one of the most unique and valuable fantasy quarterbacks. And now it makes him a volatile investment with an encroaching expiration date.
Struggling to connect with his targets and no longer delivering punishing contact in short-yardage situations, Newton has devolved into a ghost of his former self. With his Week 3 availability up in the air, Newton’s dynasty football stock is about as low as it’s ever been. Dynasty owners would be best served to wait for Newton to shed his walking boot, and trade him away to a more optimistic league mate.
↑ Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens (TE)
Per Game: 8 rec, 110 receiving yds, 1 TD (8.5 targets) – 47% snaps
Oh hi, Mark! After a debut season resembling a promising rookie wide receiver, Mark Andrews entered 2019 with plenty of optimism. So far, Andrews has exceeded these expectations. It may have been easy to write off Andrews’ Week 1 blow up against the Dolphins. In fairness, they were, you know… the Dolphins. But Andrews followed up last week with nearly identical production, carving up the Cardinals for 8 receptions for 112 yards and a TD.
While Andrews is currently operating at an efficiency and snap percentage unlikely to sustain fantasy value, his stock is squarely is on the rise. When you deliver on your current opportunities, future opportunities open up for you. Andrews is DELIVERING. In fact, Andrews has secured all but one of his 17 targets on the year.
Mark Andrews has consecutive 100-yard receiving games to start the season.
— Sooner Gridiron (@soonergridiron) September 15, 2019
The only concern at the moment is his playing time. Currently on the field for roughly half of the Raven’s offensive snaps, Andrews will need to secure additional playing time to maintain relevance over his career. His efficiency will surely regress to more sustainable levels, but additional opportunities should help offset that regression.
It’s only a matter of time until Andrews’ game rounds out enough for him to dominate snaps in this burgeoning Baltimore Ravens offense. Lamar Jackson seems to have taken a step forward in his development as a passer and Andrews could be his primary weapon. Andrews is a strong dynasty football buy candidate as a young fantasy-friendly player at a thin position.
Gardner Minshew – Jacksonville Jaguars (QB)
Per Game: 230 passing yds, 1.7 TD, 0.3 INT, 26.7 rushing yds (111.8 passer rating)
“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.”
Once Nick Foles was knocked out of Week 1 (and several months) with a broken clavicle, the mystery man, Gardner Minshew, was elevated into game action. Not only has Minshew held his own, but he’s also consistently moved the ball down the field for the Jaguars. Already possibly the NFL’s most interesting man, Minshew makes a rather interesting dynasty commodity as well. Minshew is operating this offense at a level that just may keep his handle on the reins when Foles recovers. At the very least he’s putting quality tape on his resume for quarterback needy teams in the trade market. He’s pretty inexpensive at the moment, but Minshew possesses a level of confidence, athleticism, and accuracy that could keep him relevant for a long time.
MARKET WATCH: RISING
Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens (QB)
Per Game: 298 yds passing, 3.5 pass TD, 0 INT, 63 yds rushing (145.2 passer rating)
Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills (QB)
Per Game: 253.5 yds passing, 1 pass TD, 1 INT, 29.9 yds rushing, 1 rush TD (84.6 passer rating)
Christian Kirk – Arizona Cardinals (WR)
Per Game: 5 rec, 73 yds, 0 TD (10 targets) – 93% of snaps
Marquise Brown – Baltimore Ravens (WR)
Per Game: 6 rec, 116.5 yds, 1 TD (9 targets) – Improved from 18% to 65% snaps
MARKET WATCH: FALLING
Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals (RB)
Per game: 8.5 attempts, 13.5 yds rushing, 0 TD, 2.5 rec, 8.5 yds receiving
Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers (WR)
Out for season, turns 38 in March
Hopefully, you enjoyed this edition of Nick’s Dynasty Football Stock Watch. For more great analysis follow all of his work here.
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