It’s a rare situation for an NFL team to have a problem that doesn’t involve talent scarcity. On a 53-man roster, the onus is on GM’s leaguewide to balance the cap between a number of hugely important spots to give their teams an edge over the field. After building that top line talent, depth is the main concern as injuries should be an expectation for any proactive front office. This considered, have the San Francisco 49ers overcompensated for the necessary depth at their RB spot? With the newly minted signing of Tevin Coleman the 49ers now roster three starting caliber RBs in Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, and Matt Breida. What does the dynasty future of this backfield hold? Let’s find out.
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Shanahan RB 101
A lot has been said about the effectiveness of running backs in Kyle Shanahan coached offenses and there is indeed something to be encouraged about. Since the elder (Mike) Shanahan coached the Denver Broncos 30 years ago, the Shanahan name in football has been synonymous with the zone running scheme. This scheme, which relies mostly on technique and synchronization rather than sheer power eases the pressure on an offensive line physically. Instead, defenses are frozen with constant misdirection as the O-line moves the gaps on opposing defenders and forces them to shift themselves to maintain gap integrity. In this system, decisive, one cut runners with exceptional vision are required.
Breida’s decisiveness here helped him capitalize on what the zone offers with a slick cutback.
It is important to remember, however, that Shanahan is hardly the only coach using this blocking scheme.
The San Francisco 49ers Clone Wars
All three of the top running backs on the 49ers roster have the physical strengths in their respective games to effectively run in this system. In fact, all of them are especially suited for it. While Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, and Matt Breida are all upper percentile athletes nearly across the board, they lack the ability to effectively leverage those strengths into forcing missed tackles. They are all too similar to be deployed in different roles.
Taking each RB’s most recent season into account, not one of the three managed a juke rate of even 24%. Jerick Mckinnon’s performance in the 2017 season was the best of the three and he was only able to rank 23rd leaguewide in that category. Last season in the 49ers offense Matt Breida compiled just 2.6 evaded tackles per game despite having the benefit of running behind an O-line that ranked first in running back efficiency (per PlayerProfiler) and 10th in adjusted line yards (per FootballOutsiders). Their success rates again, over their most recent season played, all fell between -1.5 and -2.5 SROA (success rate over average) per SharpFootballStats.
These aren’t the only commonalities amongst them, however. What they lack for in missed tackle creation they make up for in pass-catching skill. All three backs are capable targets out of the backfield and will fit Shanahan’s tendencies to target the running back position.
From 2015 through last season Shanahan targeted his RB1 above league average three of four times as displayed here.
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) March 19, 2019
Even in an ideal scenario, however, It is hard to envision a situation where these guys don’t cannibalize each other’s opportunities.
Cash Considerations?
Breida only costs $647K against the cap and Tevin Coleman was recently signed. If there seems to be an odd man out financially on the team it would most certainly be Jerick McKinnon. As you can see below, McKinnon signed a contract worth a total of $30M over four years just last season.
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) March 19, 2019
Though the 49ers actually stand to eat some funds if McKinnon is released or traded pre June 1, the team can actually save $3.75M in cap by parting with him after that date. As his cap number continues to grow first to $8.8M in the 2020 season and subsequently to $9.2M in 2021, the chances of the team parting with him make more and more sense. Still, this isn’t as clear cut as it seems because GM John Lynch’s hands are not tied. As it stands, his Niner team still has the fourth most available cap space left in 2019. Approximately $42.5M left unspent makes this a harder situation to predict.
Dynasty Valuation
As a dynasty manager, this situation is a tough one to read. Considering the above, this would be a situation to avoid for now. With so many players of similar talent levels on this RB depth chart figuring out the starter week to week will likely be more of a headache than it is worth. If a 49er RB must find himself on your starting roster be sure to only target the cheapest one on draft day. Whoever does get touches in this offense will most likely be a top 18 RB but much like the Patriots, this will be a situation in flux week to week.
Thanks For Reading.
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Etan Mozia has been involved with sports as a whole for over two decades and has written about athletics in some capacity since 2005. Focused primarily on the NFL and EPL, Etan has seen his work featured on sites like FantasyPros, Advanced Sports Logic, and FFD260 among others. Currently, his work is housed on FantraxHQ and FantasyPros. An avid lover of dynasty leagues specifically, you can also listen to him on his podcast, The Dynasty Diagnostic (@DynoDiagnostic), as he breaks down rosters and provides pertinent and practical advice for dynasty squads looking to give their team an edge. Follow him on twitter @EtanMozia.
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