Quality front offices win championships. That is absolute. Without a world-beating roster, even the best coaches will struggle (Kyle Shanahan). With a talent-laden squad, inept coaches can find ways to scheme together losses (Mike McCarthy). Poor GMs (Dave Gettleman) are the most impactful, however, as their blunders can linger for years. The best way to ensure your team has the greatest chance of making it to the second season is to have the right man holding the keys to the car. The Indianapolis Colts find themselves in the envied position of having an elite team builder at the helm. Chris Ballard has built a winner, and he’s created one of fantasy’s most fertile crescents of value while doing so. We’ll go over the main dynasty assets on the Colts roster and discuss their long term dynasty value moving forward.
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Indianapolis Colts, Captain Andrew Luck
Any conversation about the Indianapolis Colts needs to begin with the triumphant return of their MVP-quality star at quarterback, Andrew Luck. Early in the season, Luck looked to be negatively affected by the long layoff as he struggled in throwing deep routes. In an encapsulating moment, Luck was removed from the field in favor of Jacoby Brissett on a hail mary play in late September. But he bounced back spectacularly.
Volume was the catalyst for Luck’s spectacular comeback. In 2018 Andrew Luck’s Colts ranked second league-wide in total pass attempts as the newly protected Luck worked wonders with the time afforded to him by his top offensive line. Per FootballOutsiders, the Indianapolis Colts had the second-ranked offensive line by adjusted line yards in 2018 and were miles above previous O-line units Luck had worked with.
As you can see below…
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) March 20, 2019
Luck’s QB hit percentage was just 8.8% in 2018, a massive improvement from his approximate 12.75% career mark. This helped him reach career highs in PACR (0.98), completion percentage (67.4%), and completion percentage over expected (+1.4%, his first positive mark) last season. His 39 TDs were the second most of his career.
Signed through 2021 and just entering his age 30 season, Andrew Luck remains a bonafide top 3 dynasty QB asset and is a difference maker in superflex leagues.
From Zero to Hero
A little known fact: Eric Ebron has commanded more targets every season he’s been in the league. As targets are an indicator of overall talent as well as how a team views a player, this is a reality that cannot be underestimated. If that wasn’t convincing, consider that Ebron had the league’s number one ranked hog rate at 18.6% (targets per snap) in 2018 and saw the most end zone targets in the NFL. His contested catch rate of 44.4% (2nd NFL) helped him capitalize on those high-quality targets to the tune of 0.63 fantasy points per pass route (4th NFL). Perhaps the most impressive thing about Ebron’s performance was that he was able to accomplish all of this with only a 56.3% snap share (39th NFL). What could he do with more opportunity?
Coupled with the fact that Ebron was more than just his 14 TDs last season is the reality that he was actually most effective playing with fellow TE Jack Doyle. Contrary to popular belief, his fantasy points per contest with Doyle in the game were actually greater than without.
Per the FFStatistics Splits Tool below, in the six games Ebron and Doyle shares the field, Ebron averaged .2 more PPR points than he did alone.
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) March 20, 2019
This understood, the two may not even be teammates much longer. While anything and everything is speculation when attempting to project what a team will do with upwards of $100M in cap space in 2020,both TE’s will come into a contract year in 2019. If the choice between a relatively healthy 25-year-old record-setting TE and a 28-year-old oft-injured slightly above replacement level starter were to come up, I believe it’s easy to see who Ballard will choose.
The narrative surrounding Ebron’s “unsustainable” season has moved too far. He should be viewed as a top-five TE in dynasty leagues and will get a price bump when he signs next years extension.
A Premier Deep Threat
T.Y. Hilton is also a somewhat undervalued asset in dynasty leagues. Due to his age, which shouldn’t be a real concern at this stage, his ADP (currently at 3.2) is falling. Last season Hilton was able to put up a 0.96 RACR score, and 63% catch rate, both at or near the best marks of his career. He ranked 16th in WOPR and saw the 11th most air yards on an 11+ aDOT. He was able to convert his 120 targets into 2.73 yards per pass route (10th leaguewide). On a per target basis, there were few better. 75, 1270, and 6 isn’t bad either and is in line with what he has done
If your team is anywhere near contention, T.Y. should be kept at all costs. Understand that the marriage could be a short term one however as Hilton can be released at a significant cap savings over the next two years. But with cash and cap to burn, that is a highly unlikely scenario.
The Best of the Rest
Devin Funchess will look to reestablish his career on a $10M cap hit receiving much more accurate targets. Marlon Mack will continue to have the benefit of running behind the fourth best run blocking line (per adjusted line yards) and Cain and Doyle should be easily reintegrated into such a voluminous passing offense. Of all these guys, only those that roster Mack should even think to worry while FA backs continue to visit. Otherwise, continue to invest in and enjoy this undervalued Colts offense.
Thank for reading.
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Follow me on twitter @EtanMozia
Etan Mozia has been involved with sports as a whole for over two decades and has written about athletics in some capacity since 2005. Focused primarily on the NFL and EPL, Etan has seen his work featured on sites like FantasyPros, Advanced Sports Logic, and FFD260 among others. Currently, his work is housed on FantraxHQ and FantasyPros. An avid lover of dynasty leagues specifically, you can also listen to him on his podcast, The Dynasty Diagnostic (@DynoDiagnostic), as he breaks down rosters and provides pertinent and practical advice for dynasty squads looking to give their team an edge. Follow him on twitter @EtanMozia.
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