Welcome back to recapping the Memorial Day Mock hosted by @Gatorsosa. Last week I kicked off some analysis of the draft as a whole, and today we’ll look into some other uses of the mock, answer a question I got on the mock, and then talk about some draft strategy that Mags and I employed in the mock.
Before we dive into that, I would encourage you to go listen to the Commissioner’s Office, as on the last episode @GatorSosa joined me and he did an amazing job breaking down some parts of both the MLB draft and this mock. I’ll also have a pod breaking down the draft and some strategy with my co-drafter Mags dropping this weekend.
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So what?
So a bunch of us did a mock. So what? Why would you care that Mags and I took Vlad fourth overall and Chris Clegg took Shohei 7th overall in a fake fake league…?
Honestly you may not – and I wouldn’t blame you all that much – but there are some uses for this. First you could download the draft results (spreadsheet here for ease), as a data point in rankings. If you followed along in my Exceling at Fantasy Baseball series, you could add this as another data point since, in a sense, it’s a deep ranking list. On the flip side – it’s not a ranking list – it’s a draft – ranks are done mainly in a vacuum and a draft is done with a team build in mind. However, if you’re integrating it with all the other ranks, especially if you’ve got ranks that were done pre-season, this may be helpful.
The other reason these may be helpful in addition to adding them to ranks or thinking about where players are ranked now as opposed to a preseason (especially if you want to look at “ADP” on the table linked in last week’s article), is thinking about their value as trade deadlines near in most leagues. You can look at the draft, for example, and if you’re trying to add a win-now piece to your roster and move some prospects, maybe this can help give you an idea of what a fair offer might look like (since when making a trade your first offer should always be an equitable one, not merely a “just touching base one,” but that’s a different article for a different week – or just read what Chris said here).
Now, of course, if, say you want to acquire Nelson Cruz and the team that rosters him isn’t contending this year and so open to moving him, that doesn’t mean that Alek Thomas, taken right next to Cruz in the mock, is going to get that deal done for the other manager or even for you. Just because Mags and I took the ageless wonder and Fantasy Insider took Thomas next to each other doesn’t mean that Mags and I would make that flip if we decided to trade Nelly or that Stully would. What it does mean is hey – maybe you have a starting point.
If you look carefully at the draft and see what kind of build each team was trying to create, then you can evaluate what sort of player may fit on another team in your league – regardless of if your team trying to win, or at least land near the top, this year, or if your team is out of it, tearing apart the pieces. Regardless, this mock (assuming similar league settings) could prove a useful tool or idea sparker when trying to figure out/negotiate/dream up that trade.
The question
Last week when I tweeted out that Jake was joining me on the pod, fellow 30 Rock manager and 2020 TGFBI League Champ Sean (@Seanto), asked this:
And while this was not answered on the pod – I messed with Excel to take a look. To keep it simple I only considered prospects on Eric’s most recent top 300 dynasty prospects and these were the results:
Some of these overall team changes were pulled primarily by a few players. The Braves had Spencer Strider jump from not being drafted anywhere to being picked in 634 in the mock. Jake Eder moved from an ADP of 1710 to being drafted at 487, Brayan Bello jumped from 1201 to 421, MIL had Joe Gray jump, and Zach McCambley for MIA helped their rise too.
Some of the big droppers are Forrest Whitley dropping 272 spots, Xavier Edwards dropped 171 for the Rays. Brailyn Marquez dropped 103.33 for the Cubs. This last one is interesting to me. He’s been on the IL working back from a shoulder injury but most of the concerns that existed around him starting/relieving had existed pre-season and haven’t really changed during that rehab, so that may be one I’ll need to examine more.
Other more notable prospects STILL ranked in the top 100 who dropped over 50 spots form pre-season ADP include:
Joey Bart, Mackenzie Gore, Erick Pena, Luisangel Acuña, and Daniel Lynch.
Overall it looks Sean may be on to something in regards to the Marlins’ arms, though given the high variance in prospects right now as we adjust after not having eyes on for all of 2020 I think I would want more data before making any strong claims.
Draft Strategy/approach thoughts:
Some of the key strategy/approach points that Mags and I discussed on the pod that will drop over the weekend were list uploads, tier approaching, and use of the queue.
First – pre draft Mags and I uploaded ranks using Fantrax handy ability to import your own ranks into the draft. I used my composite dynasty ranks and imported those. When you’re in a draft room you can sort by points, stats from previous seasons, or, most common, by ADP. But, since ADP is all leagues and most leagues are redraft, you won’t have dynasty helpful guides without doing some work yourself. Now – of course – this imported ranking is NOT a list to just draft straight off of, but as with ADP when used correctly, this is a guide to make sure you aren’t missing anyone.
This also makes it so that this is always with you in the draft room no matter if you are on mobile or at home on your computer. Additionally, late in the draft, we flipped out our list for Chris Clegg’s OBP dynasty ranks list to make sure we weren’t forgetting any prospects. As we flipped between prospects and MLB bats, we just went back to normal ADP since most bats you’re taking late in a dynasty draft of this depth or deeper are mediocre players near the end of their career anyways and so players more likely to be taken in Redraft leagues. This was Mags’ idea but it proved to be a very helpful approach and I would highly recommend it to anyone doing a dynasty draft going forward.
Next, we used tiers, or as some call buckets, to help. This helps you evaluate the opportunity cost of any pick. So, for example, when Mags and I took Brennen Davis, we thought that we were in the last group of close-ish prospects with high upside. We were pleasantly surprised when Corbin Carroll came back around to us at our next pick and we took him too, but what led us to take Davis where we did was primarily looking at our broader options and similar skillsets of players.
Lastly – the queue. Everyone uses their queue differently. Some keep it very full, some just add a few options for their next pick. By co-managing (as you can read about here), Mags and I used it more as a way to communicate and discuss options with each, but it also helps you keep clear who you want to keep at the top of your list and make sure you consider everyone you should – especially when co-drafting, but even when drafting on your own. You can also bunch players in the queue by position or type of player if that is helpful. Finally, if you know you won’t be around during a slow draft, you can set up the system to auto draft FROM your queue and set your order there so that you control who gets taken even if you won’t be around when that horn sounds to push the draft button.
Finally, make sure to check out the Commissioner Office pods as well as the 5-Tool Podcast done breaking down part of the draft. Jesse, Eric, and Jake did a great job on 5-Tool and be sure to listen to Gator’s episode to hear all of the great insights, player analysis, and some prospects to target from him and keep your eyes out and ears open for the episode with Mags to hear all of his brilliant insights as well!
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