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Dynasty Baseball Buys and Sells: Hot Fry

This week’s edition of Dynasty Baseball Buys contains two top-notch hitters who are due to turn things around and are excellent buy-low candidates. The dynasty baseball sells features one of the hottest hitters in the game, who could be facing a looming cold streak, and a pitcher outperforming his expected stats. In case you missed it, you should also check out last week’s edition of Dynasty Baseball Buys and Sells.

Dynasty Baseball Buys

Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves

Riley has earned the title of being one of the top fantasy performers in the game. Since the 2021 season, he’s been a model of consistency. Over the last three seasons, he has had at least 30 homers, 90 RBI and 90 runs scored. However, this season he hasn’t looked like the same player. Riley is currently hitting .232, with three home runs, 18 RBI and 22 runs scored.

He’s still showing several good qualities this year. Riley’s exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, and bat speed all rank in the 78th percentile or better this season. His expected slash line of .242/.326/.437 exceeds his actual slash line of .232/.304/.368. Riley has barreled 13 balls this season. Roughly 61.5 percent of barrels are homers, which means eight of his 13 barrels should have been home runs this year. I fully expect Riley to turn things around and get back to his old self again. His window to buy low in a dynasty won’t be open for much longer, so try to acquire him as quickly as you can in your league.

Yainer Diaz, C, Houston Astros

Diaz burst onto the fantasy baseball scene last season in his rookie year, hitting .282 with 23 home runs and 60 RBI in 355 at-bats. It wasn’t a complete surprise though, he slashed .321/.358/.510 for his minor league career. Last season, he was one of four catchers to hit at least 23 home runs, the other three catchers were Cal Raleigh, Francisco Alvarez, and Salvador Perez. He had the highest OPS among all catchers with at least 300 at-bats last year.

He has stumbled out of the gate this season though. Diaz is currently hitting .251, with 3 home runs, 23 RBI, and 18 runs. He is currently slashing .251/.281/.364. Although his expected slash line is .271/.308/.405. Diaz is averaging a higher exit velocity and hard-hit percentage than last season, which is a promising sign he can return to the 2023 version of himself again. He has also cut his strikeouts by five percent this season. He is a strong dynasty baseball buy and a good bet to turn things around.

Dynasty Baseball Sells

David Fry, C/OF, Cleveland Guardians

Fry has taken the fantasy world by storm over the last several weeks. Over the last month, he has put together a .407 average, six home runs, 15 RBI, 18 runs, three stolen bases and a 1.314 OPS. Fry currently has a 16-game 0n-base streak, dating back to May 8th. He has even played at four different positions this season, including catcher, first base, third base, and left field.

However, there are strong signs of a regression hitting him pretty hard. His current slash line is .357/.492/.622, but his expected slash line is .275/.379/.432. Fry was a .268 career hitter in the minors but did have some solid pop, supported by his .201 career ISO. He may be able to provide an adequate amount of long balls, but his average is due to come crashing back down to Earth. I don’t think his dynasty value will ever be much higher than it is right now, so it would be wise to sell high on him.

Javier Assad, SP, Chicago Cubs

Assad has been a very solid pitcher since he’s been in the big leagues. Since 2022, he’s compiled a 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 178 strikeouts in 205 innings. This season he has been even better, with a stellar 2.17 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 54 strikeouts in 58 innings. His most recent start was the first time he has allowed more than two earned runs in a game this season.

Assad’s advanced metrics say he’s been quite lucky this season. His xFIP is 4.11 and his SIERA is 4.14. His BABIP is .242, which is bound to shoot up. Assad’s BABIPs in his previous two seasons were .268 and .277. He’s also averaging the highest exit velocity of his career at 88.8 MPH. Regression seems inevitable for Assad at this point, so consider him a dynasty baseball sell and max out on his value now.

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