The Home of Fantasy Sports Analysis

Fantasy Football Draft Review and Optimal Draft Slot

The dog days of August are here and National Football League camps are open for business. Which of course signifies that the fantasy football season is drawing closer and closer with each passing day. I recently participated in my first pay for play league and selected from the seventh spot. And with the first round being wide open for the most part this draft season, where you pick in second round and third rounds is an advantage, especially in third round reversal leagues. Today I’d like to break down the draft results and talk about the optimal draft slot for this year.

Is there an optimal draft slot this year?

I arranged my KDS otherwise known as Kentucky Derby System tactically according to my board. KDS enables you to slot your draft order preferences, allowing the draft process to become more calculated and somewhat similar to a game of chess in that you are attempting to setup the draft board in your favor. It doesn’t guarantee where you will draft as it randomly selects the highest available preferences when each team is chosen.

Lucky number seven? After disseminating the data I decided on this strategy for constructing my foundation. I determined somewhere circa middle of the first round provides the optimal draft slot over the first three rounds according to my reconnaissance.

Deconstructing The Draft

Point Per Reception and Six Point Passing Touchdowns

Lineup: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, FLEX, DST & PK

1.7 David Johnson RB, Arizona Cardinals

My thought process prior to the draft held the slight possibility that Antonio Brown would fall to me and the worst case scenario Saquon Barkley would be there, which he was. Sometimes you just take what the draft gives you and select said player.

2.6 Davante Adams WR, Green Bay Packers

This pick played out perfectly with my game plan via KDS. I had assumed one of Adams, Allen or McCaffrey would be available after studying the average draft positions in this format.

3.6 Stefon Diggs WR, Minnesota Vikings

This particular draft implements Third Round Reversal (TRR) which flips the board starting with the third round 1-12, 12-1 then 12-1, 1-12, 12-1, 1-12… Players I targeted here were Stefon Diggs, Derrius Guice, TY Hilton & Adam Thielen. With both Guice and Hilton gone, the decision came down to Diggs versus Thielen. I assume many would have went Thielen but I didn’t hesitate on Diggs. [Editor’s Note: This draft was prior to the recent Derrius Guice injury]

4.7 Aaron Rodgers QB, Green Bay Packers

Know your league and with six point passing touchdowns Aaron Rodgers was the obvious answer for me. Golden Tate, Jarvis Landry and Rashaad Penny went after my selection of Rodgers and DeShaun Watson was the second quarterback off the board, 12 picks later.

5.6 Sony Michel RB, New England Patriots

This was a difficult decision between Sony Michel and Dion Lewis for me. I view the Patriots backfield as a lucrative proposition and one I actively solicit shares. Why? The avoid New England running backs narrative is stale and misleading. Team concept, the Patriots consistently sit atop leaderboard in points fielded and their running backs score touchdowns… Two hours after this selection news broke that Michel would undergo a procedure on his knee.

6.7 Sammy Watkins WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Mark Ingram was still on the board but he’s suspended for four games and in the final year of his contract. Follow the money, Watkins was paid handsomely in free agency with $16M per and is a risk versus reward player, but I’m betting this talented player will thrive in Andy Reid’s offense.

7.6 Kerryon Johnson RB, Detroit Lions

I went back and forth between Marshawn Lynch and Kerryon Johnson here but opted for the rookie over the old man. Mistake, maybe? Lynch was effective in the second half of last season but with Doug Martin’s arrival in Oakland combined with guessing what Gruden 2.0 will do was enough for me to go with the Lion King.

8.7 Tarik Cohen RB Chicago Bears

Cohen’s average draft position prior to this draft was 70 (over last ten drafts in this specific format) and at 91 it was an offer I couldn’t refuse. I had Rex Burkhead, Tarik Cohen and DJ Moore lined up here but locking up the Patriots backfield is where I was going, unfortunately Burkhead went right before my pick.

9.6 Marlon Mack RB Indianapolis Colts

This was definitely a mistake and I knew it the minute I made the selection. Mack fell almost two full rounds from his ADP. I could not decide on what TE to take here and my gamble went up in smoke immediately.

10.7 Anthony Miller 10.7 Chicago Bears

With a wealth of targets available and a new offensive regime now in charge in Chicago I believe this rookie will be a PPR asset, especially if he plays majority in the slot.

11.6 Allen Hurns WR Dallas Cowboys

If Hurns is the No. 1 wide receiver in Dallas, then why wouldn’t you buy him here (126)?

12.7 Matt Ryan QB Atlanta Falcons

Why draft another quarterback here? I am protecting my investment, if Rodgers goes down insert Ryan who I believe should bounce back this season. This league has an overall component which is the driving force of this contest.

13.6 Tyler Eifert TE Cincinnati Bengals

After the ninth round debacle I decided to swing for fences here. This is probably a bust pick but it was all about the upside here.

14.7 John Brown WR Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard. Building wide receiver depth and gambling on talent.

15.6 Chase Edmonds RB Arizona Cardinals

I’m not really a handcuff guy, I’d rather buy running backs who coexist in the backfield, but at this spot it seemed reasonable. And if Johnson were to go down, Edmonds should be the clear cut guy in Arizona.

16.7 Austin-Seferian Jenkins TE Jacksonville Jaguars

I needed another player at the position and hopefully ASJ contributes in Jacksonville.

The final four rounds 16-20

17.6 Christian Kirk WR Arizona, 18.6 Matt Prater, 19.7 Carolina DST and 20.6 Darren Sproles.

After performing an autopsy of this team, I am able to discern the good, bad and ugly of my selections. I believe the overall composition of this squad is solid but FAAB (Free Agency Auction Budget) is always a separator in these competitive leagues.

The Fantasy Black Book ShowReady to amp up your Fantasy Football prep even more? Check out The Fantasy Black Book Show, where Joe Pisapia, Scott Bogman, and The Welsh bring the goods every week.

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.