Dose of DFS aims to help the reader maximize their lineups and identify the top daily fantasy baseball values each day of the week. It is currently a work in progress, and as a result, will be released twice a week for now. There will be a Sunday morning release for Monday through Thursday games. Then there will be a Thursday morning release for Friday through Sunday games.
Included for each day will be the best value in three price ranges for pitchers and hitters: high-cost player, medium-cost player, and low-cost player. Below are the price ranges for each on FanDuel and for DraftKings in those ranges. Some players will fall in the high cost in one, and the low cost in another, so I will use FanDuel to select which tier they are in.
High Cost Pitchers – > $9,000 FanDuel
Medium Cost Pitchers – $7,000 – $9,000 FanDuel
Low Cost Pitchers – < $7,000 FanDuel
High Cost Hitters – $3,500 FanDuel
Medium Cost Hitters – $3,000 – $3,500 FanDuel
Low Cost Hitters – < $3,000 FanDuel
Also, any projected rain, high wind, and high/low temperatures will be noted as of the date the article is released. This is something that needs attention as game days approach, because weather is unpredictable, especially forecasting days in advance. There will be a “pivots” note below each section. These will be players to turn to if a highlighted player has a bad weather outlook, is injured, given a day off, has a rotation turn skipped, etc. Finally, this will attempt to focus on players in the projected main slate for each day. FanDuel and DraftKings approach these differently, so I will attempt to include as many “pivots” as possible.
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Daily Fantasy Baseball Values for Monday, July 27
Weather
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland and Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati look to be the only games that could be delayed by rain. Cleveland looks like they should be able to play. Cincinnati may be a higher risk to be delayed. Wind-aided games include: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (left field), New York Yankees at Philadelphia (right field), New York Mets at Boston (right field), and Kansas City at Detroit (left field). Arizona at San Diego and Baltimore at Miami look to have fairly significant wind that could be blowing the ball back in.
Pitchers
High Cost (> $9,000 FanDuel)
Tyler Glasnow – TB – vs Atlanta Braves – $9,300 FanDuel, $8,900 DraftKings
Glasnow gets his first start of the season at home against the Atlanta Braves. He is the only high cost pitcher on the slate, and I would understand players staying away. Atlanta has a stacked lineup, so it is a risky play. I feel confident in Glasnow’s ability to give you five or six innings with potential for double digit strikeouts. Buy him at his price on DraftKings particularly (I am not sure what they are doing there).
Pivot(s): NONE
Medium Cost ($7,000 – $9,000 FanDuel)
Aaron Civale – CLE – vs Chicago White Sox – $7,800 FanDuel, $9,700 DraftKings
The two pitchers included here in the medium-cost range are not far off from being low-cost pitchers on FanDuel. Their DraftKings prices drove them to the medium-cost range. Aaron Civale is the preferred choice to Dylan Cease due to his higher floor. Civale pitched 57.2 innings in 2019 and had a 2.34 ERA. He excels in giving up soft contact. Cease gives you more strikeout upside. In his first start of 2020, coming off of a season with control issues, I would recommend lower ownership though.
Pivot(s): Dylan Cease at CLE
Low Cost (< $7,000 FanDuel)
Josh James – HOU – vs Seattle Mariners – $6,700 FanDuel, $8,600 DraftKings
This spot belonged to Pablo Lopez before the cancellation of the Marlins home opener due to the further outbreak of COVID-19 within the clubhouse. We will go with Josh James and his massive strikeout upside against a bad lineup. He is prone to the long ball, but if he gets through Kyle Lewis, Daniel Vogelbach, and Kyle Seager unscathed, he should have a good game, even in limited innings.
Pivot(s): Chris Bassitt vs LAA, Adrian Houser at PIT
Hitters
High Cost (> $3,500 FanDuel)
Javier Baez – SS – CHC – $3,600 FanDuel, $4,700 DraftKings
Javier Baez going against a left-handed pitcher in a hitter-friendly environment. Sign me up. Baez has destroyed left-handed pitching throughout his career. Over the past three years, Baez has put up a wRC+ of 132, 143, and 142 respectively. Wade Miley does not miss a lot of bats, which means Baez should be putting the ball in play. If he can elevate the ground ball pitcher, it could be a huge day for the Cubs shortstop. Bryce Harper went yard yesterday, and is aided by the wind tonight. Astros right-handed bats are solid options, going against a starter who won’t pitch a lot of innings, opening the door for a poor bullpen.
Pivot(s): Bryce Harper (PHI), Jose Altuve (HOU), George Springer (HOU), Alex Bregman (HOU), Francisco Lindor (CLE), Jose Ramirez (CLE)
Medium Cost ($3,000 – $3,500 FanDuel)
Nicholas Castellanos – OF – CIN – $3,400 FanDuel, $4,500 DraftKings
Going against his former team, I expect Nick Castellanos to have a huge game. He is going against his preferred left-handed opposition. He has a 138 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers in his career, against a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Be sure to pay attention to the pivots, as this game does have risk of being postponed.
Pivot(s): Cavan Biggio (TOR), Yuli Gurriel (HOU), Brandon Lowe (TB), Bo Bichette (TOR)
Low Cost (< $3,000 FanDuel)
C.J. Cron – 1B – DET – $2,900 FanDuel, $3,300 DraftKings
Cron may be my most owned player in today’s slate. He is going against left-handed pitcher Mike Montgomery with wind aiding his pull side. Montgomery is a heavy ground ball pitcher, so there is natural risk, but Cron has torn the cover off the ball thus far in the season. Right-handed Philadelphia batters are good picks going against J.A. Happ as well.
Pivot(s): Adam Eaton (WAS), Jonathan Schoop (DET), Avisail Garcia (MIL), Scott Kingery (PHI), Jean Segura (PHI)
Daily Fantasy Baseball Values for Tuesday, July 28
Weather
The Baltimore at Miami, and New York Yankees at Philadelphia games have been cancelled. Players involved have been replaced with pivots.
Half the slate does not have a weather projection on daily baseball data. The only game that looks to have significant information is Kansas City at Detroit, where 13-mph winds are projected to blow directly out to center field.
Pitchers
High Cost (> $9,000 FanDuel)
Walker Buehler – LAD – at Houston Astros – $10,500 FanDuel, $11,300
Buehler is only projected to go 3 or 4 innings on Tuesday, so approach with caution. The good news here is even facing off the Astros, he should give up few runs, and give you at least a strikeout per inning. On a slate where there is not a locked in pitcher, I do not have an issue putting Buehler in for safety. With that said, approach with caution.
Pivot(s): None
Medium Cost ($7,000 – $9,000 FanDuel)
Carlos Martinez – STL – at Minnesota Twins – $7,100 FanDuel, $8,800 DraftKings
Martinez is stretched out and ready to take on the free-swinging Minnesota Twins. There is a lot of downside here, as the Twins are arguably the best lineup in baseball. However, Martinez has been an excellent pitcher since he’s been in the league, and he has plenty of strikeouts in the tank. He will likely be my most owned pitcher on Tuesday.
Pivot(s): Kyle Gibson vs ARI, Jeff Samardzija vs SD
Low Cost (< $7,000 FanDuel)
Alec Mills – CHC – at Cincinnati Reds – $6,300 FanDuel, N/A DraftKings
Mills put in an impressive performance against the Milwaukee Brewers in his first start. It is surprising he is one of the cheapest pitchers on the slate. He struck out nine batters in five innings pitched in his first start. Yes he takes on a difficult lineup in a difficult park, but Mills has enough swing and miss in his game to return excellent value.
Pivot(s): Kyle Wright at TB, Yonny Chirinos vs ATL
Hitters
High Cost (> $3,500 FanDuel)
Mookie Betts – OF – LAD – $4,200 FanDuel, $4,700 DraftKings
Mookie Betts is as safe an option as there is on the slate. Playing in Minute Maid Park, Betts is a safe pick to have a multi-hit game, with a high probability he hits a home run as well. He can hit either left or right-handed pitchers well, but he has had more success against left-handed counterparts.
Pivot(s): Mike Trout (LAA), Matt Olson (OAK)
Medium Cost ($3,000 – $3,500 FanDuel)
Pete Alonso – 1B – NYM – $3,600 FanDuel, $5,500 DraftKings
Pete Alonso has already hit on laser over the Green Monster in Boston, and now he gets another left-handed pitcher at Fenway Park. Alonso is a streaky hitter, and the fact he homered on Monday will give him even further confidence facing off against the poor Red Sox pitching staff.
Pivot(s): Justin Turner (LAD), Gleyber Torres (NYY), Joey Gallo (TEX), Jorge Soler (KC), Ramon Laureano (OAK)
Low Cost (< $3,000 FanDuel)
Avisail Garcia – OF – MIL – TBD FanDuel, TBD DraftKings
Avisail Garcia as long been a favorite to breakout among experts in the industry. He consistently has one of the highest hard hit rates in baseball. His power was downplayed in Tampa Bay, as their stadium is not the kindest of environments to hitters. He is a left-masher, and he draws left-handed pitcher Derek Holland. Holland faced 262 right-handed bats in 2019, and was lit up to the tune of 19 home runs allowed on a 23.8% HR/FB rate.
Pivot(s): Dansby Swanson (ATL), Kike Hernandez (LAD), Mark Canha (OAK)
Daily Fantasy Baseball Values for Wednesday, July 29
Weather
No weather to report currently.
Pitchers
High Cost (> $9,000 FanDuel)
Jacob deGrom – NYM – vs Boston Red Sox – TBD FanDuel, TBD DraftKings
There is not much information needed here. Jacob deGrom is one of the best two pitchers in baseball. The Red Sox lineup is overrated. He is going to have a field day. This slate is loaded, so if you want to go with the other cheaper options in this range, any of the below three pitchers are great choices.
Pivot(s): Max Scherzer at TOR, Shane Bieber vs CWS, Sonny Gray vs CHC
Medium Cost ($7,000 – $9,000 FanDuel)
Chris Paddack – SD – at SF – TBD FanDuel, TBD DraftKings
There is another great selection of pitchers in this range. Chris Paddack is my favorite option as he will be going against the worst lineup in baseball, in a pitcher-friendly environment. Brandon Woodruff and Matthew Boyd are excellent pivots, as they both carry double digit strikeout upside. Kyle Hendricks and Mike Soroka mirror each other. They are likely to give you a minimum of six innings with few runs given up. Both have sneaky strikeout upside in their match ups as well.
Pivot(s): Brandon Woodruff at PIT, Matthew Boyd vs KC, Kyle Hendricks at CIN, Mike Soroka at TB, Hyun-Jin Ryu vs WAS
Low Cost (< $7,000 FanDuel)
Sandy Alcantara – MIA – at Baltimore Orioles – TBD FanDuel, TBD DraftKings
Sandy Alcantara may be developing into an ace before our eyes. He already had electric stuff, as he throws 97-mph regularly. Now he looks like he is starting to miss bats. His 91-mph change up is ridiculous (as Bryce Harper saw below). He is going against a below-average lineup in Baltimore. He could easily pitch a complete game shutout and I wouldn’t be surprised. There is risk in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards, but believe in Alcantara’s arsenal to get the job done.
Pivot(s): Andrew Heaney vs SEA, Joe Musgrove vs MIL
Hitters
High Cost (> $3,500 FanDuel)
Nelson Cruz – OF – MIN – TBD FanDuel, TBD DraftKings
The ageless wonder continues to tear the cover off the ball. As of writing this on Monday, June 27th, Cruz leads the majors with three home runs in as many games. He draws contact pitcher Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals on Wednesday. I do not feel confident in a contact pitcher taking on Cruz at the moment. Back at his home field, Cruz is as safe a pick as any hitter to hit a home run. Cody Bellinger going against an unknown pitcher is always a good thing, especially in a hitter-friendly field. Freddie Freeman loves hitting home runs at his home ballpark. And Francisco Lindor abuses pitches at his home ballpark.
Pivot(s): Cody Bellinger (OF), Freddie Freeman (1B), Francisco Lindor (CLE)
Medium Cost ($3,000 – $3,500 FanDuel)
Max Kepler – OF – MIN – TBD FanDuel, TBD DraftKings
Another Twins hitter, that is a common theme for the Wednesday slate. Kepler picked up where he left off in 2019, hitting two home runs in his first game of the season. The pull heavy, fly ball hitter should be put into lineups, along with his teammate Eddie Rosario. Also, Jorge Soler going against a left-handed pitcher prone to the long ball is a recipe for success.
Pivot(s): Eddie Rosario (OF), Jorge Soler (OF)
Low Cost (< $3,000 FanDuel)
Jesus Aguilar – 1B – MIA – TBD FanDuel, TBD DraftKings
The Marlins have a low key good lineup. Yeah, I said it. Playing in Camden Yards gives a boost to any hitter’s outlook. It is no different for the power-hitting first baseman Jesus Aguilar. Going against left-handed pitcher Tommy Milone, expect some fireworks if he can put the ball in play.
Pivot(s): Brian Anderson (MIA), C.J. Cron (DET), Jake Cave (MIN), Justin Smoak (MIL)
MLB DFS Values for Thursday, July 30
Weather
No weather to report currently.
Pitchers
High Cost (> $9,000 FanDuel)
Luis Castillo – CIN – vs Chicago Cubs – TBD FanDuel, TBD DraftKings
Do you want to start a pitcher who arguably has one of the five best arsenals in baseball? Yeah so do I. No matter the environment or opposition, Luis Castillo is a safe selection on any slate if he is throwing strikes. He got off to a good start in his first game of the year, only walking one batter, and striking out 11. Armed with the best change-up in baseball, expect plenty of strikeouts and ground balls.
Pivot(s): Mike Clevinger at MIN, James Paxton vs PHI
Medium Cost ($7,000 – $9,000 FanDuel)
Max Fried – ATL – vs Tampa Bay Rays – TBD FanDuel, TBD DraftKings
Max Fried is quickly becoming a really good pitcher. Armed with one of the best left-handed arsenals in baseball, he is a safe pick to play at home against the Rays. He pitches much better at home, and he has huge strikeout upside. Dylan Bundy and Dinelson Lamet are equally safe picks, as both have plus match ups with heavy strikeout upside.
Pivot(s): Dylan Bundy vs SEA, Dinelson Lamet at SF
Low Cost (< $7,000 FanDuel)
Brady Singer – KC – at Detroit Tigers – TBD FanDuel, TBD DraftKings
Brady Singer dazzled in his debut against the Indians, and now he draws the lowly Detroit Tigers and their pitcher-friendly home ball park. Expect a repeat performance against a worse lineup. Singer will need to throw his change up more to become a better option down the road, but his fastball-slider combination will get him through the Tigers the first time they see him.
Pivot(s): Ross Stripling at ARI, Caleb Smith at BAL
Hitters
High Cost (> $3,500 FanDuel)
Mike Trout – OF – LAA – TBD FanDuel, TBD DraftKings
What would a four-day forecast be without highlighting Mike Trout at least once? Thursday he draws left-handed contact pitcher Marco Gonzales, and that should have everyone salivating at the type of game Trout can have. There is not much else to say about the best player in baseball’s outlook on Thursday.
Pivot(s): Mookie Betts (LAD), Pete Alonso (NYM)
Medium Cost ($3,000 – $3,500 FanDuel)
Ozzie Albies – 2B – ATL – TBD FanDuel, TBD DraftKings
Ozzie Albies is a lefty-masher. The switch-hitter is significantly better from the right side of the plate.He has hit for a career average of .352 against left-handed pitchers. No I did not mistype that. He is even better at home, hitting for a .373 average in 196 plate appearances.
Pivot(s): Xander Bogaerts (BOS)
Low Cost (< $3,000 FanDuel)
Corey Dickerson – OF – MIA – TBD FanDuel, TBD DraftKings
One of the more low key good players in Miami Marlins outfielder Corey Dickerson. While his opposition Alex Cobb had a solid performance against the Red Sox, I am not buying it. Dickerson at Camden Yards is a recipe for hits. Play him with confidence. Play Dansby Swanson as much as you can before his price goes up. David Fletcher and Hanser Alberto are in favorable match ups and hit high in their lineups. Expect a high floor for both contact hitters.
Pivot(s): Dansby Swanson (ATL), David Fletcher (LAA), Hanser Alberto (BAL), Kike Hernandez (LAD)
Who are your top daily fantasy baseball values for the early part of the season? Let us know in the comments below.
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